Category Archives: Up-Thrust

Carvana … The Day After

January 29, 2026 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Now, It’s Ready for New Highs?

Figuring out Carvana’s price action, can turn you into a nervous wreck. 🙂

The latest mortar lobbed at CVNA, was this report; yet again, the ‘fundamentals’ are interesting.

As the mid-session update said yesterday:

“It’s possible there might be higher action (staying below the session high) into, during, or just after the Fed announcement (not advice, not a recommendation).”

CVNA, continued on lower to penetrate support levels of January 2nd, this year.

After that, was a rebound into the close.

Wyckoff ‘Spring’ Position

With support penetration, rebound higher including today’s action, we’re in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Now, comes the interesting part.

It’s possible, CVNA could move on to a repeating set-up, posting new all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note the massive down-thrust energy. This is possibly the largest ever, for CVNA (data going back to 2/12/20).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Whacked … Down 9%

January 28, 2026 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Watch The Fed Announcement

The last update on Carvana did not see how it was going higher but gave a potential price target, anyway.

At the same time, that update said:

“Note: Today’s break higher, then a pullback, puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).“

As of this post, CVNA has accelerated lower, penetrating support levels; that puts it in (minor) ‘spring’ position.

It’s possible there might be higher action (staying below the session high) into, during, or just after the Fed announcement (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Before-the-Open … TXN

January 28, 2026 By in Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TXN, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Set for Up-Thrust

Texas Instruments TXN, released earnings after the bell yesterday.

Today, before the open, it’s trading at 209 – 210, just above the resistance levels of last August.

That pre-market level is also (potentially) closing the gap of July 23rd.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Higher Still?

January 23, 2026 By in CVNA, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

How, is That Possible?

After several miss-steps on a potential reversal, we’re going to forget the fundamentals, and stick with reading the price action.

Carvana’s ‘fundamentals’ are well known; that does not seem to matter, yet.

One narrative to explain today’s break to all-time highs may be supposed ‘tax refunds’.

With earnings coming up in the middle of next month, let’s see what happens next.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note: Today’s break higher, then a pullback, puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Viva Las Vegas!

January 8, 2026 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, S&P, S&P 500, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Well, Not Really

It’s no secret the ‘consumer’ is up against a wall.

FRED links for various forms of debt are here, here and here.

Then, we have this just out from ZeroHedge; wide disparity between bonds and the market.

Original website, link here.

Paraphrasing from that link:

‘Expect to see an equity crash that will rival or surpass any seen before.’

We’ve all been hearing that for a long time. Are we close?

Well, some sectors are already rolling over.

The focus (on this site) for a while, has been ‘consumer discretionary’ and related.

Yesterday, was DoorDash. Today, is Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Sands LVS, Monthly

During the last melt-down, LVS cratered over -99%.

The monthly chart shows the potential.

At present, we have a repeating pattern: Spring to Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Targets and Projections

December 13, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Livermore, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Does The ‘Correction’, Start Now?

More than a few ‘engineering’ types trading the market, will talk about getting over the need to know, ‘why’.

Why does Fibonacci work?

Why does price action alternate?

Why is the market moving, or not moving; why, why, why?

Marsha, Marsha, Marsha

The media of course, wants everyone to focus on why.

If you’re focused on why, then you’re at least two steps removed from the truth.

Asking the wrong question (why) and then, looking for the wrong answer.

Both Livermore and Wyckoff, did not concern themselves with ‘why’ … but ‘what’?

With that said, let’s take a look at ‘what’s’ going on with silver, SLV.

Silver SLV, Daily Close

Shown, are the lows of August 2020 to last Friday’s close.

A whole week of updates (maybe more) could be spent on this one chart: there’s that much going on.

We have Wyckoff springs, up-thrusts, price action alternation, Fibonacci levels, time correlations, volume spikes, and the list goes on.

For today however, the main take-away is that Friday was outside-down (key reversal) on heavy volume.

That reversal (so far) took place at the exact 261.8%, Fibonacci projection (not advice, not a recommendation).

As said in yesterday’s update, we could also be in a new paradigm where silver just keeps on going.

Next upside Fibonacci projection (423.6%) is near 83.50.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Anatomy of a Reversal

December 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-20, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Wyckoff Schematic

An excellent schematic tutorial on Wyckoff, can be found here.

Going to the link, scrolling down to ‘Distribution’, we have a schematic that includes the notation “UTAD”.

UTAD, stands for, Upthrust After Distribution.

The accompanying text for the schematic indicates the distribution has already taken place; UTAD, is essentially a ‘last gasp’ to see if there’s any more demand.

A fascinating question would be, ‘Was the heavy volume associated with this update an indication of distribution?’

Does that mean the subsequent blip higher in this update, was essentially UTAD?

Biotech XBI, Hourly

The heavy volume (potential) distribution is noted.

If this is a correct view of XBI, then right now, it’s at The Danger Point®; where risk on a short is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Hangs at The Wedge

December 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, LABD, LABD-25-20, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Waiting for The Fed?

The last update on biotech presented what was thought to be a reversal condition.

The huge downward thrust with volume, was taken as the clue, some large entity or entities (may) have just exited the market.

Well, it’s been seven trading days since then and it looks like we might be at a pivot point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

The reversal (Wyckoff up-thrust) was nearly textbook. The only thing absent, was a lower close for that day.

We’re now hovering at the edge.

The Fed announcement is just over an hour away.

Anything can happen.

MACD (magenta arrow) shows momentum has slowed and lines have crossed to the downside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Spotify … A Second Look

December 9, 2025 By in AZO, ORLY, ORLY-25-01, SPOT, SPOT-25-04, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 2 Comments

New Target(s)

Even as yesterday’s update was being released, SPOT price action started negating the analysis.

So, let’s take another look to see if opportunity lies ahead.

Before getting started, note auto parts (AZO, ORLY) are down hard in today’s session; the potential for which, indicated just two days prior.

Spotify SPOT, Daily

A push above the 603 – 604, puts SPOT in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ condition while at the same time, being at the 23.6% retrace level.

When looking at the long-term quarterly chart (not shown), there’s significant resistance at the 615.6 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Twenty-Year Wedge … eBay

November 28, 2025 By in EBAY, EBAY-25-01, Michael Bordenaro, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Setting up for a Big Move?

eBay accelerated lower on heavy volume after its last earnings release.

In following sessions, price action attempted to recover, only to reverse lower (again) during the week of November 14th.

That’s where we are now; only this time, we’re looking at the long-time frame, the quarterly chart

eBay EBAY, Quarterly

There it is: A massive 20-year wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

For the latest on how the ‘consumer’ is doing, this just out from Michael Brodenaro, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279