Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
A nuance in price action can have (significant) meaning or be obliterated at the next session.
It’s no secret the dollar, gold, and the miners, are all at extremes.
The dollar is down, gold is stretched in a potential blow-off, and miners (GDXJ), just posted action that may be important (not advice, not a recommendation).
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
The last two days have printed a low of 60.13, but this is not the low of Wednesday, the 23rd. That low is 60.05, below the last two day’s lows.
Why is that important?
The last two days have not made new daily lows, so have not created a potential price action reversal (pushing below 60.05, and reversing).
We can also see, today’s bounce is to 23.6%, while last Thursday’s bounce was to 38.2%.
This all may mean something or not.
With the extremes noted at the outset, it may not take long to find out if the distinctions are important (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s been a wild ride for gold, silver, and the miners.
This week, gold (GLD) posted a weekly reversal bar as did senior and junior miners, GDX, GDXJ.
Silver miners SILJ, posted an up-thrust reversal after meeting the target identified in this update.
For over a year, this site, if not outright negative on silver (SLV), has at least been ‘non-bullish’ as the metal can’t seem to get out of its own way.
So far, nothing has changed on that front (not advice, not a recommendation).
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
With gold posting what looks to be a typical commodity blow-off top, it leaves the miners in a potentially vulnerable position (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s a bear market; we have non-stop headline induced whipsaws, never-before seen extremes, massive downdrafts followed by (face-ripping) short covering squeezes.
Then, there’s the ‘fatigue’:
“Investor Fatigue Has Set In”: Goldman’s Desk Summarizes The Key Market Themes, link here.
Judging from the links below, the professionals (seem to) have an idea of what’s likely; the other side (the retail side), remains clueless or confused.
‘Depression Cycle Is Here’ Charles Nenner Warns “It Will Be Much Worse In 2026”, link here.
As Professional Traders Panic Sell, Retail Investors Just Can’t Stop Buying., link here.
The recent sharp recovery has shown us where to go for short-side opportunity.
One such sector, is the healthcare industry (not advice, not a recommendation).
Health Care Select Sector SPDR, XLV, Daily
The wedge is obvious.
Typical classical analysis market guidelines for wedge:
Whatever direction was the entry, that’s the (most likely) direction for exit (not advice, not a recommendation).
If there is a downside exit, we’ll discuss measured move(s) at that time.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In the past few weeks, it seems like the markets have been whacked with a lot of, ‘the largest, ever’.
Trading in bonds, specifically TLT, is no exception.
While the media and pundits alike, deflect with ‘who’s doing the selling’ (hint: it’s not important), we’re going to look at the harder question of ‘what does it mean?’
Kick-Off, or Capitulation
Borrowing from research and writings of Wyckoff, Weis, and Prechter, when we get such a huge thrust downward (chart below), it’s typically one of two events:
A massive kick-off to much lower prices or a capitulation that washes-out the weak hands.
A bond upside reversal (rates lower) is a common sign of nearing or active economic downturn (not advice, not a recommendation).
In this interview with Greg Hunter, Ed Dowd covers the topic … the expectation for the reversal. However, that interview, was before the massive thrust lower.
Long Bond Proxy, TLT, Weekly
For years, it’s been one failed upside (reversal) after another.
Is this time, different?
The right side (magenta arrows) shows unprecedented thrust and volume.
So far, there has been a weak recovery to 38.2%, retrace of the recent down-move.
If that retrace level holds, with bonds continuing lower (rates higher), it does not bode well for the ‘capitulation’ narrative.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 