Monthly Archives: June 2025

Carvana … Closes The ‘Gap’

June 20, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, KMX, Positions

Good News … Maybe

Carvana was up today on good news from rival CarMax, link here.

Today’s action in CVNA (segment at left), closes the gap (blue arrow) discussed in this update.

Adding intrigue, we have links like this.

Currently short CVNA, (CVNA-25-05), with stop near today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike … Then & Now

June 19, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-04, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

‘Somebody, Always Knows …’

CrowdStrike may have reached a top, or maybe ‘the’ top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on price action, this update could be part of a series.

With the chart below, we’re going to start first with ‘then’, and also first, with some background on the cyber ‘glitch’.

Background

The software crash of July 19th, 2024, was the result of an update, not external cyber-attack, link here.

Damage as result of lost revenue (for subscribers), was in the $Billions … with a ‘B’. 🙂

The effects of that loss are still reverberating, evidenced by CrowdStrike’s earnings, links here, here, and last year, here.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily

As noted (on the chart), there was clear evidence something was wrong, well before the ‘glitch’.

The most recent earnings release saw a sharp drop, -8.9%, at the lows; volume doubled from the prior session.

Then, nine trading days later, CRWD, inches to a new all-time high.

Yesterday’s action was down with a potential ‘change of character’.

Currently short: CRWD-25-04, with a stop near the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana (short) Targets

June 18, 2025 By in CVNA 2 Comments

Gap Theory

Will Carvana close the gap, posted last Friday, the 13th?

With the caveat that anything can happen, markets tend to come back (up) for a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the case of CVNA, that ‘test’ area also corresponds to a 50%, Fibonacci retrace, as shown.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The Fibonacci Day 89 (from the February 19th, high), is marked as the red arrow and vertical line.

That day, June 26th, also corresponds to a Fibonacci 8 Days from the low just posted, this past Monday.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wal-Mart, Support Crumbles

June 17, 2025 By in Positions, WMT, WMT-25-01

Consecutive Sessions, Lower

For WMT, the past ten trading sessions, have all closed lower.

Performing a quick (visual) look on WMT daily data, there has been no other occurrence of ten consecutive lower closes, going back to 7/1/19 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s close for WMT was 94.25; after-hours (as of 8:12 p.m., EST) has WMT, continuing down slightly, at 94.03.

Wal-Mart WMT, Weekly

As noted, there was an attempted breakout that has failed.

The blue line is now a significant resistance level.

Currently short (WMT-25-01), with a tight stop at today’s high, 94.82 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Did Wheels Come Off Carvana?

June 16, 2025 By in CVNA

We’re Close

Carvana could implode from here.

The question is, will it?

If CVNA, posts a new daily low tomorrow, then odds tilt toward swan-dive to the street (not advice, not a recommendation).

If not, and we’re actually in a set-up to test higher, or even post new all-time highs, then we’ll know that soon, as well.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The chart shows how well CVNA, price action is respecting the Fibonacci levels.

If there is a reversal higher, it’s either a test of the recent highs, or a ‘spring’ set-up to potential all-time highs.

No matter what, CVNA appears to be nearing some kind of ‘event’ (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 15, 2025 By in CLN25, GCQ25, Oil, Oil & Gas, SIN25, USO

Gold, Silver & Oil

As of 7:12 p.m., EST, gold futures GCQ25 are steady-to-up, about +0.42%.

Silver futures SIN25, are flat +0.08%, so neither metal is moving decisively.

Oil is a different story.

Futures CLN25, had a gap-higher open, printing just below last Friday’s high of 77.62.

In just the hour so from the open, that contract is now retracing lower, nearing Friday’s close.

That means, when looking at the chart of USO below, current price action is within the upper range of Friday’s trading.

United States Oil Fund, USO, Daily

The last update on oil, had this:

“If oil and related markets like XOP, can’t hold or surpass those highs, well then, we have our answer (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Friday’s volume was characteristic of a blow-off move.

As noted on the chart, last time there was comparable volume, printed over three years ago; USO peaked, retraced, made slight new highs, then sideways-to-down, for years.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Reversal or Supply?

June 14, 2025 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Prechter, Wyckoff

The Top, or Not

The past two trading days have Carvana down hard, on supply.

Is the trend still up?

What about the Fibonacci time (Day 89) correlation?

Prechter said it best, when commenting that ‘time’ follows ‘form’; meaning, the form is the most important and time, secondary.

So, at this juncture, time correlation is set aside, and we look at form.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The past (price action) is affecting the present.

Note how the resistance level from way back in late 2021, mapped directly to the present.

Based on that resistance, current action can be labeled a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Test or Not

‘Normal’ market behavior is to come back up for a test of resistance. It can happen, but it’s not required.

Recall, there’s a Fed meeting and interest rate announcement, this Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Overnight, Oil Spikes Higher

June 13, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XOP, XOP-25-01 1 Comment

Bull Market, or Not

Overnight, oil futures launched higher.

Selected news links, below:

Oil Could Hit $130 In “Worst Case Scenario”: JPMorgan, link here.

Images Emerge Of Tehran Destruction After Major Israeli ‘Preemptive Attack’; IRGC Chief Killed. link here

Crude propelled by Israeli attacks on Iran; ES -1.1%, DXY +0.8% – Newsquawk US Market Open, link here

Crude +8%, ES -1.5% after Israel conducts strikes on Iranian nuclear & military targets – Newsquawk Europe Market Open, link here.

Oil, Bull Market?

Even as this post is being created (8:54 a.m., EST), oil futures are backing off overnight highs.

It’s what happens next, that’s important.

If oil and related markets like XOP, can’t hold or surpass those highs, well then, we have our answer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Oil & Gas, XOP, Daily

In the pre-market session, XOP is trading just below the 61.8%, Fibonacci projection.

If the XOP wave is ‘corrective’, shown as ‘a-b-c’ above, that means it’s against the main trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, At Support

June 12, 2025 By in CVNA 1 Comment

A Rally, From Here …

The chart segment at left, shows CVNA, testing support; ready to break lower or rally higher.

If there’s a rally, we’re still on track for the next Fibonacci projection: The 261.8%, as shown.

At this point, there has been no new weekly low (below 316.41), so the probabilities favor continued upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall from this update, if price action makes it to the upper Fib level, it will be all-time highs for CVNA.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Are Bulls Leaving GDX?

June 11, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ-25-01, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions

Volume Retreats

The chart of Senior Miners, GDX, at left, shows successive declines in print high, close high, and volume on net up days.

This is a subtle indication, the bulls may be backing off to see what happens next.

After all, it’s been non-stop cheerleading by the press:

Ditch the SPX – Precious Metals Are the Real Deal, link here.

Silver Is Finally Soaring: Here’s Why, link here.

Metallic Mayhem: Platinum Pops, Silver Squeezes, Gold Brews, link here.

On the other side, inflation seems to be slowing, absent, or even (gasp) declining.

What’s going to happen if/when there’s a ‘deflation’ scare?

Fearmongering Pundits Disappointed AGAIN As Consumer Prices Refuse To Surge On Trump Tariffs, link here.

Positioning

Currently short GDX, with a tight stop near yesterday’s high @ 52.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279