Author Archives: thedangerpoint

The Silver ‘Circus’

December 29, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, HL, HL-25-01, SILH26, SLV Leave a comment

From: ‘Buy at Any Price, to ‘Volatility’

Seems like just yesterday, it was ‘buy at any price’.

Now, it’s ‘volatility’, link here and here.

Looking at the futures (SILH26), it appears to be the typical commodity blow-off (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, as always, anything can happen; somehow, somewhere (over the rainbow), silver could recover.

Hitting The Margin

Let’s not forget, margin increases, here and here.

For now, for the bulls, it doesn’t look good.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … ‘It’s Different This Time’

December 28, 2025 By in Bert Dohmen, Ed Dowd, Gold & Silver, SLV Leave a comment

Deflationary Pressures

This is not 1980, or 2011, says the report at this link. Website, link here.

The premise for ‘it’s different’, is the demand for ‘physical delivery’.

The chart in yesterday’s post, showed tracking fund SLV, very close to its Fibonacci 161.8% projection, near 76.30.

If we refer back to recent interviews with Ed Dowd, and to some extent, Bert Dohmen, they both talk about the current bubble(s).

However, Ed Dowd in particular, discusses the potential for a ‘deflation scare’.

That in turn, allows a provocative thought:

Maybe, deflationary pressures are so intense, the only way to get a blow-off mania spike (this time), is to demand delivery and stress the infrastructure (not advice, not a recommendation).

The futures market opens, in about 10-hours.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Terminal Velocity’

December 27, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV 1 Comment

A Look Back

It’s not a stretch to say, silver stackers, fiat failure futurists, the ‘bugs’, YouTube grifters, et al., are at the peak of euphoric hysteria.

Some, have even gone catatonic.

Well, it really could be different this time.

If that’s true, then, the chart below is of no significance (not advice, not recommendation).

Silver SLV, Monthly

If we take the entire move of the past 17-years and look at the prior high, we get a ‘Ruh-Roh‘, Scooby feeling.

Going back to historical data from macrotrends, it looks like the current price spike bears more resemblance to 1980, than 2011.

That assessment (the spike) would make sense if this market is ‘alternating’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Best Market(s) To Trade

December 26, 2025 By in BOIL, BOIL-25-01, Larry Williams, Natural Gas, UNG Leave a comment

Which One?

In this brief interview clip, trading legend Larry Williams cuts through the fog on trading the markets.

In a deceptively simple statement, he says:

‘The best market to trade, is the one that’s set-up right now, today!‘

There’s no ‘macro’ no ‘interest rates’, no ‘earnings forecast’, no ‘pencil sharpening’ (think, FactSet), … nothing.

The best market’s the one that’s moving right now.

With that said, long position on Nat-gas (BOIL-25-01), was increased early this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Ready to Rally

December 25, 2025 By in BOIL, BOIL-25-01, Natural Gas, UNG 1 Comment

Slam & Test

Like all markets, Nat-Gas (UNG) has its own characteristics.

One of them, is the potential for wild and volatile action during an EIA release.

Taken from comments on October 22nd.

“However, tomorrow is the next release of EIA and potential test. Sometimes it’s brutal, other times it’s not there.“

Moving on a month or so, we can see that type of ‘brutal’ decline; -32.5%, (top to bottom) before price recovered.

Natural Gas UNG, Daily

Nat-Gas (UNG) has penetrated support, rebounded, and now (Wednesday), was testing that action.

It’s important to note, the previous spring set-up (here) resulted in a rally, lasting about six weeks.

Also note:

That rally was somewhat choppy and overlapping which would suggest if we do get another sustained rally, price action may alternate from the last rally’s form (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, Reversal Set-Up

December 24, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-15-17, JDST-25-18

The ‘Secret’ Lies, With The Action

At the top, the miners are hanging on; just barely.

While not discussed on this site, yesterday was a day trade in the Junior Miners (GDXJ) inverse fund JDST.

The thinking (yesterday) was, ‘today’s the day’.

Turns out, this morning’s session may be ‘the day’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, 15-minute

Note how the behavior of the first fifteen minutes ‘alternates’.

Yesterday’s 15-minute bar posted lower and continued for the next four bars before starting a recovery.

Today is different; straight down, no recovery (so far).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Set-Up

December 23, 2025 By in Biotech, LABD, Wyckoff, David Weis, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, $SPSIBI, XBI, LABD-25-22

Repeating Pattern

The last update on biotech, XBI was here.

Price action went on to post a new high and, in the process, may have completed a repeating pattern set-up:

Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

The indication is subtle.

There’s no doubt we’re at the very edge of the lake as Wyckoff (and Weis) used to call it.

However, this is also the point where the risk (for a short) is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike … Inches Higher

December 22, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-10, Railroads, Transportation 1 Comment

Almost There …

The last update on CRWD, is linked here.

Today’s action continued the upside test, but the momentum has slowed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next earnings release is scheduled for early March, link here.

While (nearly) all eyes are focused on the A.I., and precious metals blow-out, elsewhere in the market, sectors appear to be stagnant or breaking lower.

One area is transportation and rail freight.

We’ll analyze that soon.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, at The Edge (again)

December 21, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SIL, SILJ

Are We Close?

While the Senior and Junior Miners GDX, GDXJ printed higher for the week ended last Friday, the silver miners SIL and SILJ did not.

SIL price action is hanging just above resistance on momentum (MACD), that’s posting a bearish divergence.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CAT (break) Test Complete?

December 20, 2025 By in CAT, CAT-25-02, ZeroHedge

A Tale of Two Fibonacci’s

As the tagline says, we had two Fibonacci levels posted by CAT on Friday.

The chart shows a print low on the 17th, to Friday’s high, was 38.2% retrace of the move from all-time highs.

The insert shows the close version of the same chart. On a close basis, CAT retraced 23.6%.

Caterpillar CAT, Daily

Note the action of the past two trading days were ‘inside’ the down bar posted on the 17th.

With the trend break from the prior update, then posting a retrace of two Fibonacci levels simultaneously, plus the large high-volume bar (on the 17th), suggests the upside test may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

The week ended with multiple records set, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279