Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Spotify … A Second Look

December 9, 2025 By in AZO, ORLY, ORLY-25-01, SPOT, SPOT-25-04, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 2 Comments

New Target(s)

Even as yesterday’s update was being released, SPOT price action started negating the analysis.

So, let’s take another look to see if opportunity lies ahead.

Before getting started, note auto parts (AZO, ORLY) are down hard in today’s session; the potential for which, indicated just two days prior.

Spotify SPOT, Daily

A push above the 603 – 604, puts SPOT in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ condition while at the same time, being at the 23.6% retrace level.

When looking at the long-term quarterly chart (not shown), there’s significant resistance at the 615.6 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SPOT(ify) in The Channel

December 8, 2025 By in SPOT, SPOT-25-04 1 Comment

Already Down, Over -29%

The last update on Spotify was back in August, link here.

SPOT’s down another – 20% since then, and over -29%, from the all-time highs.

The chart shows we’re in a trading channel.

Spotify SPOT, Daily

At this juncture, downward thrust (net) distance is slowing somewhat.

However, price action is near the right downtrend line and may pivot lower to confirm (not advice, not a recommendation).

The set-up is not ideal.

Obvious locations for a stop (if short) are today’s high, yesterday’s high or a decisive break of the right side trendline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the channel is a Fibonacci 8-Days wide.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Auto Parts … Roll-Over

December 7, 2025 By in AZO, CVNA, ORLY, ORLY-25-01 1 Comment

All-Time Highs, Months Ago

While Carvana’s set for all-time highs on Monday, the opposite side of the sector, auto parts, have already rolled over.

Both AutoZone and O’Reilly reached their peak(s) this past September.

Then, last week, both of them posted an outside-down (reversal) bar.

O’Reilly is the more liquid of the two; we’ll review it first.

O’Reilly Automotive, ORLY, Daily

With a potential downtrend line (dashed blue-line), we’re currently hovering at minor support (dashed grey line).

Fibonacci time correlations are apparent.

As said before, as soon as everyone ‘figures it out’ (i.e., 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ….), time correlations morph into chaos, or re-appear later (i.e., 55).

Note: Fibonacci 8-Days, between major downward thrusts.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading Intel’s Downside

December 5, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, INTC, Semiconductors, SOXX

Will Today be a Test?

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

With the overall semiconductor index higher in the pre-market, it’s possible INTC could use today to grind its way higher into a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart shows we’ve had an up-thrust (reversal), then a -7.45% drop (ease-of-movement) to minor support levels.

intel INTC, Daily

The blue-line, resistance, is also the 50% retrace from highs of January 2020 to the lows of April, this year.

The objective is to see if the range narrows (upside) between yesterday’s low and high, for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the pre-market (7:40 a.m., EST), INTC is trading slightly higher (+0.46) pts).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Amazon ‘Tests’ Reversal

December 4, 2025 By in AMZN, Artificial Intelligence

Potential Channel

It’s possible, ‘All the King’s horses and all the King’s men won’t be able to put Amazon back together again’ (not advice, not a recommendation)

Amazon posted all-time highs on earnings coupled with so-called A.I. (efficiency) gains; labeled as ‘Up-Thrust’.

Then it collapsed, -17% before coming back to test resistance (blue line).

Then, it reversed (down) again.

Note: ‘Test’ was Fibonacci 21 Days, from all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (reversal) Bookends

December 3, 2025 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, LABD-25-19 2 Comments

Repeating Characteristics

Yesterday, biotech XBI was down on the most volume since May 6th, of this year.

For leveraged inverse fund LABD, it posted the heaviest upside volume, ever.

The chart shows a (potential) repeating characteristic for XBI that occurs at the point of trend change (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, anything can happen and today’s ‘test’ could fail with XBI continuing higher.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

The ‘up-thrust’ reversal zone is between support/resistance areas (far left, off chart) at the approximate location of the 50% retrace.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Stalls @ 50%

December 2, 2025 By in Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-19, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

While All Eyes Focused, on A.I.

At left, the entire biotech (XBI) move from all-time highs to the lows and now, stalled at 50% retrace.

Last week was Fibonacci Week 34, from the ‘Tariff’ lows of early April.

The insert at left is a closer look.

Note how the index has essentially gone straight-up without any testing or (significant) price action congestion.

This behavior suggests a down move may happen just as easily (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s Downside Channel

December 1, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff

If, The Bubble Has Burst …

The case is building for Nvidia’s downside reversal; this morning’s pre-market action, is no exception (not advice not a recommendation).

With the caveat that anything can happen, we have in the chart below, nascent confirmation(s) of a downside channel.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Within the channel, we’re also in Wyckoff Spring position (testing support), ready to move higher.

However, springs can fail.

If Nivida opens lower in the regular session (currently, 8:05 a.m., EST), ‘normal’ market behavior is an attempt to close the gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike, P/E – 424.69

November 30, 2025 By in CRWD, CVNA, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Terminating Wedge

Wild Swings

Depending on which data platform is used, CrowdStrike’s P/E, is anywhere from -378.81, to -424.69.

That’s a negative P/E.

‘Not to worry’, as the Brits would say, CrowdStrike’s P/E has also been positive.

How about +786.1, in January of 2024, link here.

Let’s throw in Book Value of 15.03, and we have an outfit trading at 3,288% over its liquidation value.

On top of that, don’t forget the update ‘glitch’ costing customers over $5 Billion in losses, here and here.

Going on to add some intrigue, we’re coming up on the earnings release this Tuesday, after the bell.

What could possibly go wrong? 🙂

CrowdStrike CRWD, Weekly

It’s a familiar theme. One (potential) terminating wedge after another.

So far, we’ve covered CVNA, EBAY, and EXPE, in similar positions (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279