Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Biotech Stalls @ 50%

December 2, 2025 By in Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-19, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

While All Eyes Focused, on A.I.

At left, the entire biotech (XBI) move from all-time highs to the lows and now, stalled at 50% retrace.

Last week was Fibonacci Week 34, from the ‘Tariff’ lows of early April.

The insert at left is a closer look.

Note how the index has essentially gone straight-up without any testing or (significant) price action congestion.

This behavior suggests a down move may happen just as easily (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s Downside Channel

December 1, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff

If, The Bubble Has Burst …

The case is building for Nvidia’s downside reversal; this morning’s pre-market action, is no exception (not advice not a recommendation).

With the caveat that anything can happen, we have in the chart below, nascent confirmation(s) of a downside channel.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Within the channel, we’re also in Wyckoff Spring position (testing support), ready to move higher.

However, springs can fail.

If Nivida opens lower in the regular session (currently, 8:05 a.m., EST), ‘normal’ market behavior is an attempt to close the gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike, P/E – 424.69

November 30, 2025 By in CRWD, CVNA, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Terminating Wedge

Wild Swings

Depending on which data platform is used, CrowdStrike’s P/E, is anywhere from -378.81, to -424.69.

That’s a negative P/E.

‘Not to worry’, as the Brits would say, CrowdStrike’s P/E has also been positive.

How about +786.1, in January of 2024, link here.

Let’s throw in Book Value of 15.03, and we have an outfit trading at 3,288% over its liquidation value.

On top of that, don’t forget the update ‘glitch’ costing customers over $5 Billion in losses, here and here.

Going on to add some intrigue, we’re coming up on the earnings release this Tuesday, after the bell.

What could possibly go wrong? 🙂

CrowdStrike CRWD, Weekly

It’s a familiar theme. One (potential) terminating wedge after another.

So far, we’ve covered CVNA, EBAY, and EXPE, in similar positions (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another Wedge … Expedia

November 29, 2025 By in 1907, APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, CVNA-25-17, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, Ed Dowd, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Livermore, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, SPOT, TEL, Terminating Wedge, UBER, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Ending Moves’

Back in the day, Jesse Livermore nearly went bust attempting to short the downside of what became, The Panic of 1907.

Stopped out time and again, he finally (according to Wyckoff) hawked his car to rase capital.

Form nearly broke, to closing out short trades on October 24th 1907, net profit over $1-milllion.

With that, we have a strategic picture, in focus.

During a recent interview, Ed Dowd discussed the +35.95% gap (and close) on Oracle, as a result of ‘projections‘.

The take-away (from him) was these types of moves are ‘ending moves’, not the beginning of a new bull run.

Since then, price action has fully retraced.

ORCL, is currently down a whopping -41.6%, from its all-time highs. Hardly a bull market.

We’ve presented eBay in a similar position.

Carvana, launched itself above resistance at Friday’s close. In so doing, got itself into another wedge.

Now we have Expedia, looking eerily similar (not advice, not a recommendation).

Like eBay, we’ll start with the long term, quarterly chart.

Expedia EXPE, Quarterly

The latest earnings release pushed EXPE up, contacting the upper trendline.

A gap higher and close of +17.55%, in one day.

EXPE has since backed off the all-time high; currently down about -8.5%.

Edge of The Wedge

The following is a partial list of tickers either forming a (monthly) terminating wedge, or have broken out to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)

APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, EBAY, EXPE, NFLX, NVDA, SPOT, TEL, UBER

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Twenty-Year Wedge … eBay

November 28, 2025 By in EBAY, EBAY-25-01, Michael Bordenaro, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Setting up for a Big Move?

eBay accelerated lower on heavy volume after its last earnings release.

In following sessions, price action attempted to recover, only to reverse lower (again) during the week of November 14th.

That’s where we are now; only this time, we’re looking at the long-time frame, the quarterly chart

eBay EBAY, Quarterly

There it is: A massive 20-year wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

For the latest on how the ‘consumer’ is doing, this just out from Michael Brodenaro, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

At The Crossroads … Carvana

November 27, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-17 2 Comments

Where Risk, is Least

Carvana’s at the crossroads; The Danger Point®

Yesterday’s close, is a potential (significant) pivot-point.

A break higher, and CVNA has avoided the ‘terminating wedge’ (here), follows the trendline, on to potential new highs.

A break down, and we start a possible (swift) move, to much lower levels.

For a short position, this is where the (upside) risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

In addition to the months-long terminating wedge (link above), we also have a smaller wedge.

Depending on how one draws the upper wedge line, yesterday’s action could be considered a ‘throw-over’ of the formation, typically an ending move.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Euphoria to Anxiety

November 26, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors

Grinding Lower

It’s been a Fibonacci 21-trading days since Nvidia’s all-time high.

As of today in the pre-market, we’re down -16.5% from those highs.

Of course, anything can happen and NVDA could recover.

However, as presented in this post, if you’ve ‘sold-out’, then what’s next?

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

Lower lows, lower highs; the definition of a downtrend (not advice not a recommendation).

The downtrend can end at any time.

For that to be apparent (at this juncture), NVDA will need to close above the high of this past Monday, at 182.55.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pre-market … AMZN

November 25, 2025 By in AMZN, Dr. David Paul, XLY, XLY-25-01 1 Comment

Taking Out The Stops

As the late Dr. David Paul said, in this interview:

‘Put your entry where the masses place their stops’

We might see that (running the stops) happen in Amazon, during this session.

The last update is here. It surmised there may not be a Santa Claus rally.

Today, we’re at Fibonacci Day 3, from the lows of last Friday, 11/21.

AMZN, looks ready to post a new daily high … right where stops may be located.

Amazon, AMZN, Daily (pre-market)

The trendline mark-ups from the prior update are intact, except the right side trendline (‘supply’ side) has been removed.

The black arrow is where the pre-market (as of 8:19 a.m., EST) is trading.

The area between the magenta and blue dashed lines is what we’re looking for.

This is where the stops may be located (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Watch

November 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Semiconductors, SOXX

Carvana, as Well

It’s possible by the close of the day, both SOXX, and CVNA, will be in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

As of this post (11:10 a.m., EST), the SOXX is literally screaming higher … but still below resistance levels.

As for Carvana, the 332.33 level has been discussed many times, link here and here.

A close above that level puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Uber ‘Breakdown’

November 24, 2025 By in UBER

Ease of Movement, Lower

Last week was a swift breakdown from a wedge.

For the week, UBER closed down -8.46%, a decisive move.

Now, in the pre-market, it’s attempting to test that wide (weekly) bar.

It may continue (testing) in the regular session.

Either way, for a short position, the stop is well defined; last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: Uber had been forming a top (dissipating energy) for two months before last week’s break.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279