Category Archives: CVNA

Carvana, CrowdStrike, Cadence

January 31, 2026 By in CDNS, CRWD, CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Earnings, late February, early March

Earning release for CVNA, CRWD, and CDNS, are scheduled here, here and here.

All three charts are in the same, or similar position.

Q: Anyone know?

A: Recently penetrated support or are testing that penetration.

Technically speaking, they’re all in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Chart analysis to follow.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Now … The CVNA ‘Test’

January 30, 2026 By in CVNA

Pass, or Fail?

Odds of passing the test and moving higher, are better than a throw of the dice … if volume contracts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Admittedly, at this point in the early session, it looks a little shaky.

Price action has come all the way down to support and is attempting to bounce higher.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Contraction of volume (from the prior session) for the day, does not guarantee anything.

It just points the probabilities for a mover higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Financial ‘Mystery’ Solved?

Judge for yourself.

At this link, Carvana is discussed but the comments provide a potential answer.

Buried between 25 – 30 comments down, a statement that once read, makes perfect sense.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … The Day After

January 29, 2026 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Now, It’s Ready for New Highs?

Figuring out Carvana’s price action, can turn you into a nervous wreck. 🙂

The latest mortar lobbed at CVNA, was this report; yet again, the ‘fundamentals’ are interesting.

As the mid-session update said yesterday:

“It’s possible there might be higher action (staying below the session high) into, during, or just after the Fed announcement (not advice, not a recommendation).”

CVNA, continued on lower to penetrate support levels of January 2nd, this year.

After that, was a rebound into the close.

Wyckoff ‘Spring’ Position

With support penetration, rebound higher including today’s action, we’re in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Now, comes the interesting part.

It’s possible, CVNA could move on to a repeating set-up, posting new all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note the massive down-thrust energy. This is possibly the largest ever, for CVNA (data going back to 2/12/20).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Whacked … Down 9%

January 28, 2026 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Watch The Fed Announcement

The last update on Carvana did not see how it was going higher but gave a potential price target, anyway.

At the same time, that update said:

“Note: Today’s break higher, then a pullback, puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).“

As of this post, CVNA has accelerated lower, penetrating support levels; that puts it in (minor) ‘spring’ position.

It’s possible there might be higher action (staying below the session high) into, during, or just after the Fed announcement (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Higher Still?

January 23, 2026 By in CVNA, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

How, is That Possible?

After several miss-steps on a potential reversal, we’re going to forget the fundamentals, and stick with reading the price action.

Carvana’s ‘fundamentals’ are well known; that does not seem to matter, yet.

One narrative to explain today’s break to all-time highs may be supposed ‘tax refunds’.

With earnings coming up in the middle of next month, let’s see what happens next.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note: Today’s break higher, then a pullback, puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana on Fumes

December 15, 2025 By in CVNA

Early Session, Inside Bar

It’s been a streak of Fibonacci 13-higher closes in a row, until last Friday.

Friday was ‘outside-down’. Today, we’re trading inside that bar (so far).

At this juncture (early session) CVNA is posting slightly below the minor resistance points (the closes) shown in the chart

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The condition is very subtle and there’s been no real sign of supply … just a potential softening of demand.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Auto Parts … Roll-Over

December 7, 2025 By in AZO, CVNA, ORLY, ORLY-25-01 1 Comment

All-Time Highs, Months Ago

While Carvana’s set for all-time highs on Monday, the opposite side of the sector, auto parts, have already rolled over.

Both AutoZone and O’Reilly reached their peak(s) this past September.

Then, last week, both of them posted an outside-down (reversal) bar.

O’Reilly is the more liquid of the two; we’ll review it first.

O’Reilly Automotive, ORLY, Daily

With a potential downtrend line (dashed blue-line), we’re currently hovering at minor support (dashed grey line).

Fibonacci time correlations are apparent.

As said before, as soon as everyone ‘figures it out’ (i.e., 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ….), time correlations morph into chaos, or re-appear later (i.e., 55).

Note: Fibonacci 8-Days, between major downward thrusts.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike, P/E – 424.69

November 30, 2025 By in CRWD, CVNA, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Terminating Wedge

Wild Swings

Depending on which data platform is used, CrowdStrike’s P/E, is anywhere from -378.81, to -424.69.

That’s a negative P/E.

‘Not to worry’, as the Brits would say, CrowdStrike’s P/E has also been positive.

How about +786.1, in January of 2024, link here.

Let’s throw in Book Value of 15.03, and we have an outfit trading at 3,288% over its liquidation value.

On top of that, don’t forget the update ‘glitch’ costing customers over $5 Billion in losses, here and here.

Going on to add some intrigue, we’re coming up on the earnings release this Tuesday, after the bell.

What could possibly go wrong? 🙂

CrowdStrike CRWD, Weekly

It’s a familiar theme. One (potential) terminating wedge after another.

So far, we’ve covered CVNA, EBAY, and EXPE, in similar positions (not advice not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another Wedge … Expedia

November 29, 2025 By in 1907, APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, CVNA-25-17, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, Ed Dowd, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Livermore, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, SPOT, TEL, Terminating Wedge, UBER, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Ending Moves’

Back in the day, Jesse Livermore nearly went bust attempting to short the downside of what became, The Panic of 1907.

Stopped out time and again, he finally (according to Wyckoff) hawked his car to rase capital.

Form nearly broke, to closing out short trades on October 24th 1907, net profit over $1-milllion.

With that, we have a strategic picture, in focus.

During a recent interview, Ed Dowd discussed the +35.95% gap (and close) on Oracle, as a result of ‘projections‘.

The take-away (from him) was these types of moves are ‘ending moves’, not the beginning of a new bull run.

Since then, price action has fully retraced.

ORCL, is currently down a whopping -41.6%, from its all-time highs. Hardly a bull market.

We’ve presented eBay in a similar position.

Carvana, launched itself above resistance at Friday’s close. In so doing, got itself into another wedge.

Now we have Expedia, looking eerily similar (not advice, not a recommendation).

Like eBay, we’ll start with the long term, quarterly chart.

Expedia EXPE, Quarterly

The latest earnings release pushed EXPE up, contacting the upper trendline.

A gap higher and close of +17.55%, in one day.

EXPE has since backed off the all-time high; currently down about -8.5%.

Edge of The Wedge

The following is a partial list of tickers either forming a (monthly) terminating wedge, or have broken out to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)

APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, EBAY, EXPE, NFLX, NVDA, SPOT, TEL, UBER

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279