Category Archives: CVNA

Carvana on Fumes

December 15, 2025 By in CVNA Leave a comment

Early Session, Inside Bar

It’s been a streak of Fibonacci 13-higher closes in a row, until last Friday.

Friday was ‘outside-down’. Today, we’re trading inside that bar (so far).

At this juncture (early session) CVNA is posting slightly below the minor resistance points (the closes) shown in the chart

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The condition is very subtle and there’s been no real sign of supply … just a potential softening of demand.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Auto Parts … Roll-Over

December 7, 2025 By in AZO, CVNA, ORLY, ORLY-25-01 1 Comment

All-Time Highs, Months Ago

While Carvana’s set for all-time highs on Monday, the opposite side of the sector, auto parts, have already rolled over.

Both AutoZone and O’Reilly reached their peak(s) this past September.

Then, last week, both of them posted an outside-down (reversal) bar.

O’Reilly is the more liquid of the two; we’ll review it first.

O’Reilly Automotive, ORLY, Daily

With a potential downtrend line (dashed blue-line), we’re currently hovering at minor support (dashed grey line).

Fibonacci time correlations are apparent.

As said before, as soon as everyone ‘figures it out’ (i.e., 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ….), time correlations morph into chaos, or re-appear later (i.e., 55).

Note: Fibonacci 8-Days, between major downward thrusts.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike, P/E – 424.69

November 30, 2025 By in CRWD, CVNA, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Terminating Wedge

Wild Swings

Depending on which data platform is used, CrowdStrike’s P/E, is anywhere from -378.81, to -424.69.

That’s a negative P/E.

‘Not to worry’, as the Brits would say, CrowdStrike’s P/E has also been positive.

How about +786.1, in January of 2024, link here.

Let’s throw in Book Value of 15.03, and we have an outfit trading at 3,288% over its liquidation value.

On top of that, don’t forget the update ‘glitch’ costing customers over $5 Billion in losses, here and here.

Going on to add some intrigue, we’re coming up on the earnings release this Tuesday, after the bell.

What could possibly go wrong? 🙂

CrowdStrike CRWD, Weekly

It’s a familiar theme. One (potential) terminating wedge after another.

So far, we’ve covered CVNA, EBAY, and EXPE, in similar positions (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another Wedge … Expedia

November 29, 2025 By in 1907, APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, CVNA-25-17, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, Ed Dowd, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Livermore, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, SPOT, TEL, Terminating Wedge, UBER, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Ending Moves’

Back in the day, Jesse Livermore nearly went bust attempting to short the downside of what became, The Panic of 1907.

Stopped out time and again, he finally (according to Wyckoff) hawked his car to rase capital.

Form nearly broke, to closing out short trades on October 24th 1907, net profit over $1-milllion.

With that, we have a strategic picture, in focus.

During a recent interview, Ed Dowd discussed the +35.95% gap (and close) on Oracle, as a result of ‘projections‘.

The take-away (from him) was these types of moves are ‘ending moves’, not the beginning of a new bull run.

Since then, price action has fully retraced.

ORCL, is currently down a whopping -41.6%, from its all-time highs. Hardly a bull market.

We’ve presented eBay in a similar position.

Carvana, launched itself above resistance at Friday’s close. In so doing, got itself into another wedge.

Now we have Expedia, looking eerily similar (not advice, not a recommendation).

Like eBay, we’ll start with the long term, quarterly chart.

Expedia EXPE, Quarterly

The latest earnings release pushed EXPE up, contacting the upper trendline.

A gap higher and close of +17.55%, in one day.

EXPE has since backed off the all-time high; currently down about -8.5%.

Edge of The Wedge

The following is a partial list of tickers either forming a (monthly) terminating wedge, or have broken out to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)

APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, EBAY, EXPE, NFLX, NVDA, SPOT, TEL, UBER

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

At The Crossroads … Carvana

November 27, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-17 2 Comments

Where Risk, is Least

Carvana’s at the crossroads; The Danger Point®

Yesterday’s close, is a potential (significant) pivot-point.

A break higher, and CVNA has avoided the ‘terminating wedge’ (here), follows the trendline, on to potential new highs.

A break down, and we start a possible (swift) move, to much lower levels.

For a short position, this is where the (upside) risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

In addition to the months-long terminating wedge (link above), we also have a smaller wedge.

Depending on how one draws the upper wedge line, yesterday’s action could be considered a ‘throw-over’ of the formation, typically an ending move.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Watch

November 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Semiconductors, SOXX

Carvana, as Well

It’s possible by the close of the day, both SOXX, and CVNA, will be in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

As of this post (11:10 a.m., EST), the SOXX is literally screaming higher … but still below resistance levels.

As for Carvana, the 332.33 level has been discussed many times, link here and here.

A close above that level puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Stop-n-Go, Congestion

November 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-16, NVDA, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Fighting it Out

Carvana’s been fighting it out in a congestion area for over two weeks.

Before that, the chart shows long-term trend (and wedge), had already broken to the downside.

Looking at the totality of the CVNA trading range, from lows near 4, to highs around 390, the congestion action looks quite narrow.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

Note: The insert is an expanded view, showing the breakdown and test.

With release of NVDA earnings, the prior update implied the A.I. bubble may have officially popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, In The Lane

November 17, 2025 By in CVNA

Trading Channel

With the major indices lower today, Carvana (CVNA) managed to close higher.

Price action has remained within the trading channel shown, since September 17th.

The rest of the markets look like they’re rolling over. So, it might be a stretch to expect CVNA, to close above the 332.33, level discussed here.

Not only close higher but do it tomorrow, on ‘Day 8’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … in Reverse

November 16, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, NVDA, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unique Characteristics

Each market has its own behavior.

At significant reversals since the all-time high on July 31st, Carvana has posted a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’.

The last update, link here, said this:

“Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.”

For that day, CVNA retraced upward to 50%, posted the up-thrust, then reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Depending on A.I., and Nvidia specifically (more upside?), there’s a chance of a close above the 332.33 level previously discussed (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, some think last week was ‘it’; the market has cracked.

That analysis is here and here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279