Category Archives: CVNA

CarMax Implodes, Carvana, Next?

August 4, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-09, KMX, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Swan Dive, to The Street

Something’s very wrong between CarMax, and Carvana.

CarMax’s annual sales are effectively twice that of Carvana; 26.5bln, vs. 13.67bln; source here and here.

CarMax printed its all-time highs years ago, now down over -64% from those highs.

However, just last week, Carvana posted all-time highs.

Adding to that, with half the sales of CarMax, Carvana’s market cap, is effectively ten times larger, than CarMax (source TC2000).

How does that work?

Is Carvana about to join CarMax, to the downside?

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

First, we have the set-up, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Next, the print and retreat from all-time highs (last Thursday).

Now, we have downside continuation with a potential trendline.

As this post is being created, CVNA, continues down; trading at 355.28 (as of 10:52 a.m., EST), down -3.41%

Maintaining short, as CVNA-25-09; stop to be moved lower to today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Incredible Numbers

July 31, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, KMX

Exhaustion Gap?

With rival CarMax, down nearly -63%, from its all-time highs, increasing loan-loss reserves, and boots-on-the-ground reporting like this, it’s interesting that somehow, Carvana seems to have transcended the fundamentals. 🙂

Or is it really as Jesse Livermore used to say, ‘all about the numbers’.

No, not the earnings, P/E, or any other ‘financial’ metric, but numbers like Fibonacci, as we’ll see below.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

We’re still in pre-market trading with about thirty minutes to go before the open.

If CVNA, opens at its current level, it’s right at the 261.8%, Fibonacci projection and all-time highs.

Short interest on CVNA is currently listed at 9.36%, here.

If the open is at the level shown, it’s likely to clear out some (or most) that are short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Update … Carvana All-Time-Highs

July 30, 2025 By in CVNA

After Hours Session

The last update on Carvana was here.

“CVNA, could just blip higher at the open and reverse.

It could spend the whole day at the test level.

It could blow through to new daily highs … literally, anything.”

Well, it looks like the ‘literally, anything’, is what happened.

With earnings just released in the after-hours session, CVNA is trading at 382, with a peak thus far, of 386.99 (as of 4:34 p.m., EST).

That peak is right at the (higher) 261.8%, Fibonacci projection level shown in this update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-08, Gold & Silver, Positions, Semiconductors, SIU25, SOXX, SOXX-25-08

Gold, Silver, & SOXX

Both gold and silver futures have opened lower.

Looking at the silver contract, SIU25, it shows the past two weeks have closed lower.

Last week’s session low was 38.1.

Tonight’s session low (as of 7:38 p.m., EST) is just ticks away at 38.135.

While gold and silver appear to be under some pressure, there’s no definitive trade setup (an opinion), so, we’re going to focus instead on the A.I., mania sector, the SOXX.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent recovery high and short set-up has already been covered here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

What the chart shows, is the reasonable expectation, either the SOXX, is going to test resistance (moving higher) like Carvana did, link here, or down to test support.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Top & Reversal

July 25, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

‘Evidence of A Struggle’

Yesterday’s Carvana breakdown, was ‘Day 13’, of a week’s long struggle at recent highs.

We’re about thirty minutes before the open; CVNA, is up in the pre-market, set to test the breakdown.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence, the car market has (already) imploded. The latest installment is here.

‘Delinquencies at the highest, ever’

From a price action standpoint, anything can happen.

CVNA, could just blip higher at the open and reverse.

It could spend the whole day at the test level.

It could blow through to new daily highs … literally, anything.

Risk Defined

From a risk standpoint on a short, it’s well defined; yesterday’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note that CVNA, earnings are set for next week.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s New (closing) High

July 5, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-06, Positions, Up-Thrust

Grinding its way, to a Set-Up

Will Carvana make it to all-time-highs, or is this, it?

During the past (shortened) week, CVNA, could not print higher, but it did close (barely) higher than June 4th, high of 345.64.

Therefore, on a close basis, we have a potential up-thrust condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last short in Carvana, CVNA-25-06, was stopped out with a 2.5%, loss.

Admittedly, it was an ‘iffy’ trade, but even so, the risk was well defined (the June 26th high).

Now, we have another potential set-up, with possibly even better time sequencing and price action position.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

From closing high, to closing high, was Fibonacci 21 Days. From low close, to high close, was Fibonacci 13 Days.

There’s even another correlation (not shown), from low close (6/16), to test low (6/26), a Fibonacci 8-Days.

Futures Markets, Back Off

Friday’s futures action may be giving us a hint of what’s to come at the open, Sunday night (tomorrow).

Carvana, CVNA, is not classified as an EXTO vehicle, so, we’ll have to wait for the Monday session to see what happens.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … ‘Day 89’

June 26, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-06, Hindenburg, Positions

Reversal & Channel

Using the ‘Way Back Machine’, and this post, we see Fibonacci time correlation with respect to the February 19th, high.

As noted, ‘Day 89’, was shown as June 26th, which is today.

From the chart, it appears CVNA, reversed yesterday, and today, has potentially verified a trading channel.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The channel lines shown, are exactly parallel and declining @ 99.9%, annualized.

As of this post, price action has penetrated minor support in the 308.70-area, so there’s a potential for an attempt to rally into the close.

While there could be a rally to post new (daily) highs, the fundamental backdrop, link here, favors the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short as CVNA-25-06, with stop at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pre-Market Action & Stops

June 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CRWD, CRWD-25-05, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, WMT, WMT-25-02, XBI

Watch The Highs

All three short positions discussed in last night’s update are trading lower in the pre-market session.

On a percentage basis, Carvana (CVNA) is down the most by about -1%.

At this point, the trading plan is simple; stops for all three are at, or near, the last session highs (not advice not a recommendation).

Moving on, we have an index that may be getting interesting, biotech XBI.

Back in late May, was this post.

Let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

A casual inspection of the chart shows price action ‘respecting’ the Fibonacci retrace levels.

For the past two weeks, XBI has drifted lower without decisive conviction.

It could continue its path to lower levels.

However, for a dynamic, sustained move, we need some type of catalyst, like taking out the (potential) stops at the location noted.

On the sidelines for now (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 22, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-05, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, GLD, Gold & Silver, Positions, WMT, WMT-25-02, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Gold’s ‘Rally Fatigue’

If there ever was a reason for gold to launch massively higher, huge gap-up open, you’d think it would’ve been yesterday’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, right?

Seems like gold, currently trading slightly higher (up just +0.19%), now threatening to go negative, may be tired of the never-ending ‘sky is falling’ narrative.

The overall public does not (or refuses to) recognize, ‘narratives’ are part of the deception, part of the manipulation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff said it over a century ago, ‘Until you can ignore the news entirely, you will never be successful in the markets’.

Of course, gold could rally from here. Anything can happen.

However, we need to recognize, gold (GLD), is not all that far away (just 1%) from the level discussed in this update.

Strategy First

Trying to ‘figure it all out’, is not the essence of Wyckoff analysis.

Wyckoff attempts to determine the ‘what’ of the markets, not the ‘why’.

With that, there are three open positions: all of them short (not advice not a recommendation):

CVNA-25-05, CRWD-25-05, and WMT-25-02

Tomorrow (Monday) pre-market, an update is planned for short-covering exits (if any) and stop levels.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Closes The ‘Gap’

June 20, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, KMX, Positions

Good News … Maybe

Carvana was up today on good news from rival CarMax, link here.

Today’s action in CVNA (segment at left), closes the gap (blue arrow) discussed in this update.

Adding intrigue, we have links like this.

Currently short CVNA, (CVNA-25-05), with stop near today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279