Category Archives: CVNA

Carvana … Falls in Hole

September 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-24-14, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-07, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Trading Below Support

Carvana spent three days hovering above support.

Yesterday, trading started above support, then, ended below.

Adding to that, price action was down on double volume from the prior session.

Volume study is part of Wyckoff analysis. It typically does not get attention as it’s boring, generating no ‘clicks’.

The increase in volume suggested pressure’s building to the downside.

Based on that, a (small) short was opened yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Short position is being maintained; stop to be moved at the end of this session to the day’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Markets

From the ‘notes’ discussion on yesterday’s post, the WMT position was stopped out (at essentially break-even) early this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action looks like a secondary test of the reversal.

However, from a preference standpoint, the focus is on CVNA … and the SOXX.

More on that later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Auto Lender’s Implosion

September 21, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, ALLY, Biotech, CVNA, SPBIO, XBI

One of Many?

The last melt-down in 2008 – 2009, was precipitated by subprime mortgage.

This time, will it be auto loans?

Is this just one of many implosions to come?

Digging-in on auto finance, we have chief cook and bottle washer, Ally Financial. Old timers know this outfit as formerly GMAC.

Let’s not forget, Carvana (CVNA) and Ally are (potentially) joined at the hip, link here.

Moving on to the chart.

Ally Financial, ALLY, Weekly

This price action is eerily similar to biotech.

Note how long ALLY bounced around below support (in spring position) before finally moving to the upside.

Nearly a month ‘hugging the lows’, could be an underlying indication of weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next earnings release is scheduled for October 17th.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Car Market Implosion

August 30, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-12, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Hit on Both Sides

From a $100,000 Jeep Grand Wagoneer to no-bids on used cars at auction, the car market’s getting hit from both sides.

While Carvana rival CarMax, reached all-time highs long ago, now down -60.34%, for whatever reason, Carvana remains a ‘mystery’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The horizontal line is the prior all-time high (376.83), set way back on August 10th, of 2021.

Up-thrust close high, to test close high, Fibonacci 21-Days.

From August 20th low, to test print high (Friday), Fibonacci 8-Days, putting CVNA, at 61.8%, retrace (not shown).

Positioning

Friday’s new daily low was the signal to go short. However, that short was not entered immediately.

Instead, we wait. The objective is to minimize the risk as much as possible.

Late in the session, 3:57 p.m., EST, short opened at 371.6412, with stop at the session high (378.54), for total ‘risk’ of 6.90-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Test & Reverse

August 19, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-11, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

On A Closing Basis

The goings-on, in the car market, new or used, are unprecedented, link here.

The video is clear; the market has already imploded.

Carmax (KMX) seems to be an accurate reflection of that, with it being down over -62%, from its all-time highs.

However, for some mysterious reason that’s (almost) sure to come out later, Carvana, is only down only -17%, from its all-time highs.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

On a close basis, CVNA tested resistance, posted an up-thrust on the 18th, then reversed.

Adding to the intrigue, that up-thrust was on Fibonacci Day 13, from all-time highs.

Referring back to Livermore’s criteria, link here, if the trade meets requirements (i.e., up-thrust), then execute.

In this case, that meant to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade: CVNA-25-11, with stop at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 10, 2025 By in BA, CVNA, CVNA-25-09, MMM, Positions

Carvana: Test, or Breakdown

Several equites appear to be at transition points.

Boeing was covered yesterday. Similar to Boeing, is Three M.

Both appear ready to post higher into resistance at the next session (not advice, not a recommendation)

Another potential transition is Carvana, CVNA.

The last (short) trade, CVNA-25-09, was closed on 8/7/25, with a +6.53%, profit.

At this point, shown below, we’re either going to attempt an upside test or … just go ahead and break to the downside.

The least likely probability is for extended sideways action.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Implodes, Carvana, Next?

August 4, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-09, KMX, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Swan Dive, to The Street

Something’s very wrong between CarMax, and Carvana.

CarMax’s annual sales are effectively twice that of Carvana; 26.5bln, vs. 13.67bln; source here and here.

CarMax printed its all-time highs years ago, now down over -64% from those highs.

However, just last week, Carvana posted all-time highs.

Adding to that, with half the sales of CarMax, Carvana’s market cap, is effectively ten times larger, than CarMax (source TC2000).

How does that work?

Is Carvana about to join CarMax, to the downside?

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

First, we have the set-up, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Next, the print and retreat from all-time highs (last Thursday).

Now, we have downside continuation with a potential trendline.

As this post is being created, CVNA, continues down; trading at 355.28 (as of 10:52 a.m., EST), down -3.41%

Maintaining short, as CVNA-25-09; stop to be moved lower to today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Incredible Numbers

July 31, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, KMX

Exhaustion Gap?

With rival CarMax, down nearly -63%, from its all-time highs, increasing loan-loss reserves, and boots-on-the-ground reporting like this, it’s interesting that somehow, Carvana seems to have transcended the fundamentals. 🙂

Or is it really as Jesse Livermore used to say, ‘all about the numbers’.

No, not the earnings, P/E, or any other ‘financial’ metric, but numbers like Fibonacci, as we’ll see below.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

We’re still in pre-market trading with about thirty minutes to go before the open.

If CVNA, opens at its current level, it’s right at the 261.8%, Fibonacci projection and all-time highs.

Short interest on CVNA is currently listed at 9.36%, here.

If the open is at the level shown, it’s likely to clear out some (or most) that are short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Update … Carvana All-Time-Highs

July 30, 2025 By in CVNA

After Hours Session

The last update on Carvana was here.

“CVNA, could just blip higher at the open and reverse.

It could spend the whole day at the test level.

It could blow through to new daily highs … literally, anything.”

Well, it looks like the ‘literally, anything’, is what happened.

With earnings just released in the after-hours session, CVNA is trading at 382, with a peak thus far, of 386.99 (as of 4:34 p.m., EST).

That peak is right at the (higher) 261.8%, Fibonacci projection level shown in this update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-08, Gold & Silver, Positions, Semiconductors, SIU25, SOXX, SOXX-25-08

Gold, Silver, & SOXX

Both gold and silver futures have opened lower.

Looking at the silver contract, SIU25, it shows the past two weeks have closed lower.

Last week’s session low was 38.1.

Tonight’s session low (as of 7:38 p.m., EST) is just ticks away at 38.135.

While gold and silver appear to be under some pressure, there’s no definitive trade setup (an opinion), so, we’re going to focus instead on the A.I., mania sector, the SOXX.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent recovery high and short set-up has already been covered here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

What the chart shows, is the reasonable expectation, either the SOXX, is going to test resistance (moving higher) like Carvana did, link here, or down to test support.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Top & Reversal

July 25, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

‘Evidence of A Struggle’

Yesterday’s Carvana breakdown, was ‘Day 13’, of a week’s long struggle at recent highs.

We’re about thirty minutes before the open; CVNA, is up in the pre-market, set to test the breakdown.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence, the car market has (already) imploded. The latest installment is here.

‘Delinquencies at the highest, ever’

From a price action standpoint, anything can happen.

CVNA, could just blip higher at the open and reverse.

It could spend the whole day at the test level.

It could blow through to new daily highs … literally, anything.

Risk Defined

From a risk standpoint on a short, it’s well defined; yesterday’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note that CVNA, earnings are set for next week.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279