Category Archives: CVNA

Carvana, Taps The ‘Break’

January 13, 2025 By in CVNA Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Was That It?

Is Carvana just like Wile E. Coyote, where he heads off the cliff, hangs for a moment, then looks down?

When looking at the weekly chart, we see the trend break and then what looks like a test.

The question is, was that it?

Carvana, CVNA, Weekly

As shown above, the nuance that hints at continued lower prices, not a more protracted test, is today’s open; that is, it’s below, last week’s close (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

From a corporate standpoint, no positions (long or short) are planned for CVNA.

We’re just noting the price action, providing the analysis (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … What’s Next?

January 9, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg 1 Comment

Circus About To Start

For the longest time we’ve heard from various sources, polite ‘head scratching’, on Carvana’s ‘numbers’.

Now, it looks like the wheels are coming off and the circus is about to start (not advice, not a recommendation).

This Hindenburg Research reads like we’ve seen (a hint of) that before, here, here, and here.

However, scrolling through Hindenburg’s report, their ‘list’ is nothing short (no pun intended) of incredible.

Go-Forward Model

Years ago, during an episode of Wall Street Week, with Louis Rukeyser, one of his guests discussed a bad earnings release from a major firm.

Louis asked him (to the effect) if he thought the worst of the earnings were over?

His response was:

‘I believe in the cockroach theory. Where there’s one, there’s more’

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Watch for ‘Tight Action’

January 6, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 2 Comments

Coiled For A Move

How should the price action segment (at left) be marked up?

There are several Wyckoff analysis lessons and at least one empirical observation (made over several decades) in just the 16-bars of price action.

Empirical Observation

In a sense the prior update on Carvana (CVNA) illustrates the point.

When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.

When that analysis was presented, little did we know, ‘Hindenburg‘ would come out and whack the stock.

So, let’s move on and mark up the chart … which just so happens to be the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM.

Russell 2000, IWM, Daily

The wide high-volume bar has been ‘tested’.

Price action penetrated lows posted December 20th; currently in spring condition that has (today) just posted into an up-thrust condition.

Repeating Pattern

From the late Wyckoff expert and mentor David Weis, spring-to-up-thrust is a repeating set-up, link here.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla: The (short) Set-Up

January 5, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , ,

‘Shorting-Out’, at The Top?

It’s likely we’ll know on Monday, whether or not last Friday’s action was a test (and completion) of the up-thrust reversal shown in the chart.

That reversal and potential test, coincides with ‘good news’, ‘bad news’, link here.

Tesla TSLA, Daily Close

Five years of price action.

Moving in closer to nine months of action.

The ‘resistance’ level goes all the way back to November 4th, 2021, with an all-time high close of 409.97.

Note: Friday’s close of 410.44, was only +0.11%, above the prior (closing) all-time high.

Another Carvana?

Similar to Carvana and its relation to CarMax, i.e., bloated market cap, Tesla has the largest market cap of all (major) auto manufacturers, link here.

Going back to this post on Carvana, volatility reaches a minimum; CVNA, is down a stiff -27.4%, since then.

Are we about to see similar action for Tesla?

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Taps The Trend

December 29, 2024 By in CVNA, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter

What Happens Next?

The last update on Carvana, link here, identified the potential for downside reversal.

That’s what we got 🙂

Now, as we’ll see in the chart below, CVNA is right at the trendline.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

We’re at the trend, but there’s a slight possibility price action will rebound (off the trendline) to the area noted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s add this insight from Greg Hunter and Ed Dowd, concerning the economy, link here.

After watching the interview, judge for yourself whether or not we have recovery higher first, or we head lower, first.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Cracks

December 22, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Same As It Ever Was?

It’s a market smorgasbord of opportunities but for this site, it’s not to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s get started with this:

‘The economy’s doing great, same as it ever was’

Just to remind us how great it is, is this, link here.

Moving on to the poster child of the day, Carvana.

As expected, the CarMax (KMX) earnings release, affected not only CarMax, but Carvana’s price action as well.

The last update on Carvana said to be on the lookout for a reversal based on the lack of volatility alone.

Well, that’s what happened, and volatility has increased.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The question now: CVNA price action has declined and penetrated established support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Will there be one (potential) last ‘blip’ higher?

Of course, CVNA could head down from here.

Price action over the next few days, will let us know the most likely outcome.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Skids To A (volatility) Halt

December 9, 2024 By in CVNA 1 Comment

The Last Time This Happened …

It’s right there, in the chart below.

The last time Carvana volatility was this low, measured by Bollinger Band width, was back in late November, early December, of 2021.

That was right before CVNA, began a decline taking it down nearly -99%.

So, here we are.

We have the same (amount of) volatility contraction. Will it be different for Carvana this time?

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

This post is not recommending any trading action of any type.

We’re just presenting the facts. 🙂

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Squeeze The Squeeze

November 23, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX Tags: , , , ,

… And Then, There’s CarMax

How long before the wheels come off?

As of Friday’s close, Carvana boasts a P/E, of 30,876.

Meanwhile, Carvana’s nearest competitor CarMax, has a P/E of 31.79, which in itself, is a bit sporty.

Caravana’s sales are less than half that of CarMax, yet its market cap is over three-times larger (source, www.tc2000.com)

Carvana’s ‘vending machine’ disruptive technology looks like it’s ‘worth’ an extra 97,000%, added to its P/E valuation (obviously, not advice, not a recommendation).

At the end of October, was this post, indicating Carvana may be in its final squeeze.

Since then, Carvana has inched itself higher.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

The two charts show that demand as measured by volume (spikes) has diminished significantly.

Moving in closer, we’ll look at a potential up-thrust set-up.

If we have just seen (or are in) the final thrust higher, the expectation is for price action to reverse down, then test the underside of resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana’s earnings release is not until February next year, but CarMax, that’s a different story.

CarMax is set to post earnings on December 19th (or 20th), this year, during market hours.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s (final) Squeeze

October 31, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, TSM Tags: , , ,

Who’s Left, To Cover?

Short interest on Carvana, has been holding at a stubborn 12% – 13%, for what seems like months.

As of this post, BigCharts reports current short-interest at 11.67%.

Maybe that’s about to change with today’s gap-higher action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana just released earnings and like the analysis of Taiwan Semi (link, here), this may be the end of the squeeze (or, the beginning of the end).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

Pre-market action’s right at the 61.8%, retrace level.

Note the magenta arrow on Force Index, middle panel.

Subsequent upward thrusts have less and less energy.

Other Markets: SOXX

We’re about twenty-minutes before the open and Semiconductors, SOXX, looks like it will confirm the downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

There may also be a downtrend line in play.

More on that later.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Collision Course

September 11, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA

Date With Destiny

Anyone with two piston-rings rubbing together knows, the car industry is in chaos if not full-blown collapse, links here, here, and here.

We also ‘know’ that Carvana’s financial results have reached the realm of ‘interesting‘.

The last update on Carvana proposed that price action might continue on to a 50% retrace.

So far, it’s not happening.

In fact, it looks like CVNA, has decided to roll-over.

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

Price action has formed a terminating wedge, currently testing the bottom … potentially near a breakout to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s about ten minutes after the open; CVNA is trading down 2.14-pts @ 128.58, hovering around the bottom wedge line.

Because CVNA, has such an ‘interesting’ business model, if and when we get a surprise, price action could move faster than anyone thought possible (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279