Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Short interest on Carvana, has been holding at a stubborn 12% – 13%, for what seems like months.
As of this post, BigCharts reports current short-interest at 11.67%.
Maybe that’s about to change with today’s gap-higher action (not advice, not a recommendation).
Carvana just released earnings and like the analysis of Taiwan Semi (link, here), this may be the end of the squeeze (or, the beginning of the end).
Carvana CVNA, Weekly
Pre-market action’s right at the 61.8%, retrace level.
Note the magenta arrow on Force Index, middle panel.
Subsequent upward thrusts have less and less energy.
Other Markets: SOXX
We’re about twenty-minutes before the open and Semiconductors, SOXX, looks like it will confirm the downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Taiwan Semi (TSM) is the primary reason with its own trading down over -5%,.
If this really is the top of the A.I. bubble, the potential (now apparent) reversal was covered well in advance, here, here, and here.
If this is not the top and there’s more to go, the SOXX would need to retrace significantly, find support and thrust energy to mount another rally (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: MACD indicators are bearish divergent on both daily and weekly.
Making It Up, As We Go
Of course, the press has to make up a reason for the pre-market rout. So, for today, we have this and this.
Tomorrow is a whole ‘nother story, literally 🙂
Semiconductor SOXX, Weekly
The blue arrow notes only one other time (in history) in the SOXX, where downward thrust exceeded that of week ending, April 19th.
Otherwise, we have the usual suspects: Terminating wedge, dissipating energy, Fibonacci correlations for chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, link here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re about to find out if last Tuesday, was the top in AI, or just another interim top on the way higher.
No matter the Taiwan Semi slow-down, mainstream media’s not even considering we’re near (or past) a potential long-term reversal.
For this update, the SOXX is being used as proxy for the AI mania. The chief cook and bottle washer in this latest delusion is Nvidia (NVDA), which reached a high on Friday, July 14th.
Basic Indicators, Wyckoff & The Cat
Even without using Wyckoff analysis, basic indicators like MACD, both on daily and weekly are telling us the momentum has slowed; on the daily, it’s outright reversed to the downside.
From a Wyckoff standpoint, we’ve had an up-thrust (reversal) that’s been supported by decreasing up-volume and increasing down-volume (shown on daily, below).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Taiwan Semi (TSM) releases lackluster results, revenue slowdown and new building construction delays.
TSM says the delays stem from the inability to find qualified workers.
Edward Dowd provides insight on the overall reduction of employees, in this interview (Time stamp 5:10).
Bull Trap Shut, Train Leaving Station
If there ever was a ‘gotcha’ moment, this is it.
Even while the mainstream continues to tout the hype, here, here and here, the market has reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).
The daily chart of SOXX, has the MACD bearish divergence confirmed. Price action is now (as of 3:05 p.m., EST) well below the breakout (blue line) resistance area.
Semiconductor SOXX, Daily
This site does not give advice, but it can be inferred by reading the reports what actions are being executed (not advice, not a recommendation).
With that said, short positions in the SOXX, via leveraged inverse SOXS, were entered early during yesterday’s session at SOXS 8.54 and SOXS 8.69.
As a side note, within minutes after today’s market open, the gain in the SOXS, fully erased the -7.9% loss via LABD, noted in yesterday’s update.
The Biotech ‘Bid’
For whatever reason, probably to be revealed months or years from now, biotech, the instigator of the ‘elephant’ is not selling off into a market collapse as expected.
Instead, the effects are being played out in low-margin industries like airlines and semiconductors.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If Artificial Intelligence, really is the last of the bubble(s), isn’t it appropriate we culminate in a market top of the ages, with the desire (and delusion) that we can be like God.
Let’s ask ‘AI’ how to get rid of spike protein … see what it says.
We’re around mid-day; the SOXX, is raging a bull/bear battle inside the range of yesterday’s session.
Tuesday’s session was not able to post a new high or low. With that said, the Fibonacci count from the last update remains intact.
Semiconductor SOXX, Daily
The chart shows upside pressure (volume) is dissipating.
As of this post, the MACD (not shown) is flat, waiting to tick lower; not yet confirming the bearish divergence.
A penetration of the prior session low, SOXX 524.11, would give a classical analysis sell signal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 