Category Archives: DRIP-24-02

Oil Bounce … Part II

August 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DRIP, DRIP-24-02, Federal Reserve, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, IWM, Oil, Oil & Gas, Russell 2000, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, TZA, TZA-24-01, USO, XOP

Is This It?

We’ve gone form “Not Happening” to this morning’s action; ‘maybe it’s happening?’

As was done with Oil & Gas exploration XOP, we’ll now take a look at the oil patch itself and proxy, USO.

Oil tracking Fund, USO, Close

“What do you see?”

Marking up the chart.

We either have the ‘tradable bounce‘, or a potential contact point for the right-side channel line (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Fed announcement is just out, essentially accommodating a rate cut in September.

There was talk of some ‘cooling’ in the market (Ya think?).

With that, demand for oil seems like it would take a hit putting it lightly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning.

The market itself is telling us where to go and what to do.

The important item for the day; what is the market not doing? Specifically, the Semiconductors, SOXX.

The SOXX, has not made a new (daily) high (at least, not yet) after the Fed’s announcement; it can even be seen as the ‘proverbial gut-check’, a la David Weis.

With that, all other positions have been closed save the short in the semiconductors via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Danger Ahead

The ‘rate cut’ has yet to happen and September is a long way away.

It can’t be re-iterated enough how dangerous is this environment; prices stretched via a narrative that’s false (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Where’s The Bounce?

August 21, 2024 By in DRIP, DRIP-24-02, Great Depression 2.0, Oil, Oil & Gas, USO, XOP, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Not Happening

There’s no oil bounce.

Not happening (not yet anyway).

Instead, oil looks like it’s heading off a cliff.

Weren’t we supposed be forming some kind of ‘tradable bottom’ because the sellers were accumulating?

That kind of bottom-think may have worked under more ‘normal’ conditions.

However, it should be obvious to all (with some still clueless), we’re not in normal conditions.

Hedge funds dumping oil, giving a heads-up, demand collapse is either coming or is already here.

Great Depression 2.0

Presented many times on this site (click sidebar ‘Great Depression 2.0’, for a list of posts) that we’ve likely gone straight past ‘recession’, into depression (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that’s even remotely true, we should see demand collapse in heavy duty areas of the economy like trucking, right along with job implosions.

Oh, wait, here it is … and here it is, again. 🙂

Back to the oil patch. Let’s include exploration and production (XOP) posting lower as well.

Oil & Gas: Exploration, Production, XOP, Daily Close

The last position short XOP, via DRIP was stopped-out for a minimal -1.24%, loss.

Re-positioned via DRIP during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade labeled as DRIP-24-02.

The purpose of the prior channel notation is to show, XOP will at times exhibit channel (trending) behavior.

There’s only one right side (verified) contact on the latest channel, the magenta arrow.

However, the overnight market (10:57 p.m., EST) has oil futures continuing lower.

The expectation is for some follow through (downward) on the XOP, at the next session (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279