Gold … After The Reversal

Changing of Hands’

It’s a significant, if not major event, when one market participant (collectively) hands off the trading vehicle to another.

In a decline, that usually means the ‘average investor’, the least disciplined, least knowledgeable, gives up and hands off to the professionals; the ‘strong hands’.

In a blow-off top, the reverse is true.

The professionals lead the ignorant along with whatever narrative is necessary so that enough volume is created to successfully exit positions.

The changing of hands for gold and gold miners, was identified on this site, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here, starting over two-and-a-half months ago.

The analysis was consistent throughout; we are not in a long-term, sustainable, bull market. That stance applied most specifically to gold miners GDX, and GDXJ.

For that assessment to change, price action itself would have to change character; not the lagging momentum indicators, moving averages, price oscillators and so on that are themselves, defined by price action.

So, let’s take a look at what gold (GLD) is saying about itself.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

First, the un-marked chart.

Next, we see a medium to long term trendline that’s been decisively broken and tested.

Getting closer-in, we can see the oscillation about the line, the break and subsequent test (with reversal).

What’s Next?

Well, that brings us to Harry Dent.

Love him or hate him. Here he is, offering up a perspective that’s not going to be popular.

How can gold (GLD) decline from here?

Let’s take a look.

If the wedge above is in-effect, if it’s the dominant factor at this point, then a break depending on location would take GLD down to about 130-ish.

If that happens, it will be a big event … down to approximately $1,300/oz.

However, it’s what may come next, that will be totally unexpected.

It’s interesting, the wedge in blue has a measured move target right to the bottom of the larger wedge in magenta.

To get below $900/oz, will be a very different place.

With that in mind, this site has presented time and again, we’re in an unprecedented world-event.

‘Normal’ is not coming back … ever.

Awake, or Not

Jerimiah Babe, in one of his latest videos hints there’s a strange vibe to what’s happening: Time stamp 5:20,

‘There’s something going on here …’

The Fed may actually be telling us the truth … just not in the way we expect.

You have to be awake to read between the lines.

Inflation may indeed be ‘transitory’ as they say because consumer demand is going to evaporate.

Evaporate not because the consumer can’t afford it, but because there are, or will be, no consumers.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Gold (GLD) Hits Target … 166

Bring out the usual suspects.

Last month, March 13th, had this forecast for GLD, to retrace at least to 166-area; a Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

So, here we are.

GLD closed last Friday, at 166.35 … close enough.

Before we get to the chart analysis, we have the following summary from the video link in the header line:

‘We were seeing some noticeable improvement in the economy … especially in the U.S. as the [speck protection] took hold.’

(time stamp 5:03).

‘Taking hold’, indeed.

We can see just how well that’s going, here, here and here … adding to a very long list.

Before we leave this topic, we have entire school districts being shut down from speck protection reactions.

Let’s extrapolate that into ‘entire grocery chains shut down’, or ‘entire air transport companies shut down’ and the picture is clear.

By now, anyone with two lipids rubbing together can see the false narrative has reached beyond absurd into a completely different realm.

We’ll just have to call it the ‘Twilight Zone‘ for lack of a better description.

All of this will affect the markets … gold included; probably in ways unknown at this point.

Analysis:

So, here we are at the 23.6% retrace. What’s next?

First off, 23.6% is very weak. It’s not typically seen as the final (upside) reversal point in general market behavior.

However, if GLD does reverse from here, posting new daily and weekly lows, it’s in serious trouble.

The next chart has GLD in a downward channel that’s been in-effect since last August.

Pulling out to a longer time frame … the monthly; using a Fibonacci projection from these levels we have some interesting price targets.

Frist, is the 1:1, or 100.0% – 100.0% on the Fibonacci tool that projects GLD down to about 130 (129.64). This just happens to be the area Steven Van Metre has been discussing (as a potential target) for months.

Moving on lower to the 69.25 area for GLD, are targets mentioned by Harry Dent … albeit, years ago (actually, it was below $400).

We should keep in mind, a Fibonacci retrace of 76.4%, from all time high to cycle low, 1999/2001, is the 64-area on GLD.

Getting below $400 at this juncture seems unlikely.

Summary:

A downside reversal off 23.6% retrace would signify substantial weakness.

GLD would have to push below last week’s low of 161.81, to increase probabilities of a sustained downside move.

Stated many times on this site, precious metals are a crowded trade.

Operating at the same time, adverse reactions (and death) being caused by speck protection. A massive number of the population is subject to being permanently debilitated.

That could feed into the availability of all items; gold included but more importantly, the food supply.

To wit, CORN has just pivoted to the up side in a new trend; rising at over 437%, annualized.

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.