Category Archives: LABD-23-13

Biotech Bump & Run?

November 24, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-13, LABD-23-14, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Posting A Slight New High … And Then?

Is biotech price action nerve-wracking indecision, or just the normal process of clearing out weak hands?

First, The Housekeeping:

Short trade, LABD-23-13 stopped out @ LABD 18.40 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade was re-opened as LABD-23-14, with entry @ LABD 18.28, Hard Stop @ the session low, currently LABD 17.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Did we just have a double bottom?

Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, Hourly

This is how it looks as of 12:00 p.m., EST.

Right now, LABD is hanging slightly below the trading range (blue lines).

If price action manages to re-enter that range, it adds weight to a sustained reversal case.

Positioning

As noted, a new short position was opened at a lower LABD entry; LABD-23-14.

If we get continued downside action in LABD during this session (upside in XBI, SPBIO, $SPSIBI), then a discretionary exit could be made regardless of stop location (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Counting’ … So, Old School

November 23, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

If Nobody’s Doing It …

The Fibonacci count may be something, it may be nothing.

However, if nobody’s doing it, then probabilities for success could increase.

We’ll find out soon enough, maybe tomorrow.

The set-up criteria for biotech are here, here and here.

Now, biotech is at The Danger Point®, where risk of being wrong on a short position, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, ETF, Daily

From the beginning of the potential trading channel, to the XBI high this past Monday, is a Fibonacci 89 (+1) Days.

Note, there were three days in succession, July 17 – 19, 2023, at essentially the same high; indicating the Fib count (at 11/20/23) could be 89(+1), 89, or 89(-1).

The channel lines are self-explanatory; note the symmetry.

Positioning

As noted previously, there’s an open short, LABD-23-13, with Hard Stop @ LABD 18.40, yesterday’s session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop is tight (similar to this trade), so we’ll see.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … New Lows

November 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-13, Natural Gas, Positions, SPBIO, UNG, XBI 1 Comment

The Longs, Getting Crushed … For Now

The premise for a Nat-Gas (long) trade has not gone away.

The fact this market (UNG) is beating the longs senseless, is a potential indicator in itself.

Evidence continues to mount, uninterrupted access to anything is a luxury; one is prudent to consider the potential effects of supply disruption.

For Nat-Gas UNG, there’s more to the story; it’s following a Fibonacci projection as we’ll see below.

Nat-Gas UNG Daily, Fibonacci Projection

If the projection holds, next lower level is UNG 5.55 area.

As far as where Nat-Gas goes from here, anything can happen; it could even go negative just like the crude futures did back in April of 2020.

Positioning

Nat-Gas: There are no positions in UNG at this point (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, if UNG does decline to the 5.55 area, just the ‘value’ itself will be enticing.

Biotech: While the 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, posted a new daily low (just after the open), SPBIO, $SPSIBI, indices and the XBI, ETF have not yet posted new daily highs (which would have negated the short trade).

This in a nutshell, is what makes shorting the market with a highly leveraged inverse fund (and doing it effectively) a challenge at times.

The short position LABD-23-13, has been maintained with a new Hard Stop @ LABD 18.40 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Turnaround Tuesday?

November 21, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, Real Estate, SLV, SPBIO, SRS-23-04, XBI, zsl, ZSL-23-01 1 Comment

Possible Reversal During The Holiday Week

While no-one’s looking, markets tend to reverse.

Typically, that happens before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Perhaps, the most famous of these was the day after Labor Day Weekend, September 3rd, 1929, the all-time high up to that point.

Adding substance to the assertion, the all-time high (thus far) for the S&P 500, was January 4th, 2022, with the closing high the day before.

So, here we are in the midst of the Thanksgiving holiday week. Is the market going to reverse?

Biotech SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, Daily

The November 3rd, update showed the target area for biotech ($SPSIBI).

Price action decisively penetrated that area yesterday and then immediately started to retrace.

As of this post (10:12 a.m., EST), price action has printed a new daily low.

Positioning

As stated in this update, the coming week was likely to see adjustments to open short positions.

The Real Estate (SRS-23-04) and Silver (ZSL-23-01) shorts have been closed, with the biotech (LABD-23-13) position increased (not advice, not a recommendation.

The Hard Stop for LABD-23-13, is LABD 17.62 but will likely be moved to the session low, currently LABD 18.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Going Short on ‘Corrective Waves’

November 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD, LABD-23-13, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, SRS, SRS-23-04, XBI, ZeroHedge, zsl, ZSL-23-01 2 Comments

All The Same ‘Look’

Did we just have the largest bull trap in market history?

Now, after the bulls (may) have been caught off-guard, we have this; the specter of ‘deflation‘ and demand destruction.

Last Tuesday’s CPI report provided a backdrop for the continued squeeze higher.

Over the past several weeks, at least three markets have developed the same (bearish) ‘look’.

They’re posting corrective ‘a-b-c’ price action, going against the main trend.

SLV, IYR & XBI, Weekly

Take a look, all similar in their formation.

Positioning

As of the close on Friday, I have positioned short in all three markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

The IYR short was initiated this past Wednesday, the Silver short on Thursday, then just minutes before the close on Friday, the biotech short.

Trades are labeled as SRS-23-04, ZSL-23-01, LABD-23-13

Next Steps

The coming week is likely to see one, or a variation of the following: all trades stopped out, one or two trades with discretionary exit, then followed by potential concentration on the best candidate.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279