Category Archives: LABD-25-03

Biotech … Bleeds Down

March 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-03, LABD-25-04, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

Loss Of Upside

‘He’s Dead, Jim!’

While we can’t officially declare biotech dead like ‘Bones’ Dr. McCoy, we can say the charts below, paint a less than bullish picture.

The XBI, is so packed full of nuances, it needs at least two charts.

Biotech XBI, Daily

First, apparent weakness.

Price action’s only been able to retrace 23.6%, after penetrating support (blue line) and forming a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

On the far right, just below the magenta line, the grey lines show a minor up-thrust (reversal).

Next, we have a series of spring set-ups, that have failed.

Each time a spring condition is created, price action rises for a brief period, then collapses.

At the far right, the spring (shown in the first chart) appears to have failed; now subdividing lower.

Positioning

During Friday’s session, as price action began to rise unexpectedly, short LABD-25-03, was closed.

Then, late in the day after XBI appeared to have reached its high and reversed, a new short position, LABD-25-04, was opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, the expectation for the coming week, is XBI to continue lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … ‘Out of Gas’

March 21, 2025 By in Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Repeating Pattern

First biotech, now Carvana.

Yesterday’s mid-session update said Carvana’s posting a repeating pattern.

That pattern is what’s called a Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Even before, yesterday, this update said we’re expecting some kind of bounce.

Well, we got it; then, price action went on to post a potential reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s session may or may not contain a ‘test’ of that (reversal) action.

Let’s go to the chart.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on.

As the chart notes, when taking the retrace measurement from the after-hours high of 310, posted during the earnings release, yesterday’s action topped out right at the Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

We’re about twenty-minutes before the regular session; CVNA, is trading lower by 3.6-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Update & Carvana

March 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CVNA, David Weis, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Bump & Run

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

Biotech XBI, pushed all the way up in the early session to close Tuesday’s gap.

Once that was complete, it’s now reversing to the downside.

Bottom line: LABD-25-03, is being maintained at trader’s discretion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately Carvana, has just posted a repeating pattern (chart later): Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

As Fred Sanford used to say. ‘This could be the big one‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Gut-Check & Channel

March 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Test of Reversal

Yesterday tested the reversal from Monday’s false breakout.

David Weis used to call such action a ‘gut-check’ to see if you could hang on to your (short) position.

Even so, today could be the more important day.

The question is: Will biotech XBI, post a new daily low, confirming the test or levitate on the next (perceived) health ‘crisis‘.

Biotech XBI, Daily

It’s about fifteen-minutes before the regular open. XBI, is trading lower, giving us a hint, yesterday completed the test (not advice, not a recommendation).

If we get a new daily low, it’s possible there’s a trading channel with pivot point at Fibonacci 21-Days.

Positioning

The side bar shows an active short: LABD-25-03.

As a result of yesterday’s action, the stop on that trade has been moved higher to LABD 7.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Hang On To Your Shorts

March 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Weaker And Weaker, Still

Look! … Squirrel!

While everyone else is focused on a ‘tradable bounce’ in the S&P, with others in a freak-out on gold, back at the ranch, biotech has continued to sub-divide lower, getting weaker and weaker, still.

Note: All trades presented on this site during 2024 (ex: UNG), and 2025, have been to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The chart highlights the Fibonacci retrace levels.

A Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace is rare; markets typically like to go to 38.2%, or 50%.

If this retrace holds, it indicates significant weakness in the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can been seen in the side-bar, current biotech short is LABD-25-03, with stop at yesterday’s LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Not shown on the chart, a trading channel that appears to be in-effect.

Update planned for that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279