The ‘Santa Claus’ Rally

That Was it!

It’s going to be a very different place come December.

This won’t be like ’08 -’09, where all the stops are being pulled to ‘rescue’ the market.

No, this time really is different.

We can all see by now; the plan is controlled demolition.

Paraphrasing Jerimiah Babe, and Pinball Preparedness, we haven’t even got started (with the collapse) and the public’s already folding up.

What’s it going to be like when it really hits?

This past week, all the major indices have gone through some type of relief rally. Call it a Santa Claus rally because there probably won’t be one this December.

Trading Consistency

Throughout this upward correction, the case has been made over and again, only biotech SPBIO’s in a technical (and fundamental) condition that would allow it to decline farthest and fastest (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff analysis along with Livermore’s strategic approach that’s coupled with Loeb’s ‘focus’, has led us to (shorting) this sector exclusively.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close

Looking at the far-right side of the chart, SPBIO rallied this past week. It looks like it may head higher … that is, until we put in the trend-lines.

Now, let’s put in the trendlines.

Extended trendlines show the downside potential.

We’re about to see how this works out.

Friday’s upward action in SPBIO slowed with inverse LABD, posting narrow (downside) action as well.

Ready to reverse.

Summary

Trading action in the past week amounted to reducing the position size in LABD-22-05, by about 4.6% (not advice, not a recommendation).

If and when SPBIO continues is downward trajectory, that position (shorting via LABD) will again be increased as the market allows.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s Downside … Just Starting

Long Term ‘Changing of Hands’

A bearish analysis for gold?

What kind of idiot would think that gold (GLD) is going lower?

Well, for starters, it’s not what one ‘thinks’ that’s important.

Way back, when I was being mentored by the late David Weis, he never started our sessions with ‘what do you think’.

No, he always started by presenting a chart and then asking (and I quote), “What do you see?”

It was never ‘what’s the Fed doing’ or ‘what’s Cramer saying’ (that’s an easy one), or ‘what are earnings’ or any other number of useless, distracting rabbit-holes.

“What do you see?”

With that, we’re going to look at the long-term chart of gold (GLD) on a weekly close basis.

Gold (GLD) Weekly Close

With the passing days, weeks and now months, we can see there’s been a significant, potentially long-lasting reversal to the downside.

The prior report linked here, contains no fewer than seven other links to gold (GLD) that identified ‘changing of hands’ in various stages as it transpired.

Slow Motion Train-Wreck

So far, events in gold have been moving slowly and thus hypnotizing the gold bulls.

It was nearly two-years (20-months) between the Wyckoff Up-Thrust high (8/6/20), and the test of that high (3/8/22).

Enough time to put everybody to sleep.

At this point, GLD is back down near support levels … another bounce higher is not unreasonable.

However, it’s trading in a downward channel (not shown) that’s declining at approximately – 30%, annualized.

The above linked report presents long-term downside targets for GLD (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘Event’

As Pinball Preparedness puts it, each day that passes brings us one day closer to ‘the event’.

None of us in the proletariat know what the event will be.

It could be an excuse as disconnected as Archduke Ferdinand.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279