Category Archives: SOXS-24-17

Biotech … Set-Up, Part II

October 2, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-19, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Testing Trendline

Biotech never made it to the 99.75-area from the last update.

However, it did post an up-thrust, topping out at 99.65, just 0.10-pts from target.

This is how it is … for the scientific types, good luck with calculating where the market ‘should’ go. 🙂

Evidently, getting within 0.10-points from a 38.2% retrace was ‘good enough’; XBI reversed from there.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If this is a trendline of some importance, we’re still in the very early stages (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen and XBI, could close higher.

A new daily low was posted early in the session and price action is currently attempting to ‘spring’ off that low.

Positioning

As noted, a short is open (LABD-24-19); it may be a ‘day trade’ if XBI does not close lower for the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, based on price action, SOXS-24-17, was closed with a 13.1%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semi Industry at Risk?

October 1, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Livermore, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Potential Bottleneck

‘Surprises tend to come in the direction of trend’; Jesse Livermore

The potential all-time high (reversal) for Nvidia along with the A.I. bubble, was identified here and here.

If that analysis holds (it is, so far), we’re either in sideways congestion or outright reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

A Funny Thing Happened

If its reversal, that’s when funny things start to happen.

Like the only ultra-pure quartz mining operation in the world; used for semiconductors, possibly knocked off-line.

That kind of funny.

This article, link here, details potential risk to the semi-industry.

It doesn’t look like the semis’ are waiting around to find out.

The SOXX, just opened lower, currently trading lower (as of 9:42 a.m., EST).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

If yesterday was the (up-thrust) test, it was on contracting volume when compared to September 26th’s, resistance penetration.

With this post coming out just before the open on the 27th, the implication was, a short position was about to be opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Entry in SOXS, was at 18.87, early in the session on the 27th; hard stop @ 18.60, the day’s low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade labeled SOXS-24-17.

Speculator’s Notes

The objective here is not necessarily to be ‘right’, but to minimize the risk.

With a ‘risk’ (distance between entry and stop) of just 0.27-points, a sizeable position can be opened.

Example. A ‘risk’ of $1,000 means position size is around 3,700 shares of SOXS.

At yesterday’s closing price (20.25), the position of 3,700 shares, would now be up a modest but decent $5,100.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Good News/Bad News … Micron

September 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, MU, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Massive Volume & Gap

From a Wyckoff and David Weis analysis perspective, wide high-volume, price bars tend to be tested.

What does that tell us (to anticipate) with Micron’s huge gap-up with volume?

When we go to the chart, we see more … a lot more.

Frist off, let’s not forget, Micron’s Number Nine, in market cap within the SOXX, tracking ETF.

Its price action behavior (significantly) affects the index.

Micron Technology MU, Daily

We’ve got a (possible) Head & Shoulders. with an Up-Thrust, precipitated by good news (here and here).

It’s been 70 (trading) Days since Nvidia hit all-time highs; a high forecasted, then confirmed here and here:

Back then, was this:

“With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”

It was significant. Nvidia has not been there since.

Implications

The implication with the (still holding) Nvidia top, is the A.I. bubble has burst.

Possibly the largest asset bubble in world history.

What we’re seeing with Micron, is potentially the last gasps of short covering, with an attempt to mount a rally in an overall deflating market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279