Category Archives: SOXX

Will SOXX, Follow The Rules?

August 7, 2023 By in Positions, Prechter, SOXS, SOXX, The Maverick of Wall Street 2 Comments

In A Knife Fight? … No Rules !

What’s happening in the markets is important but so is what’s not happening.

The SOXX, as of 1:15 p.m., EST has not made a new daily high.

Price action’s hovering in a tight range and looks to be coiling for a directional move.

If the breakout is to the downside as anticipated, here is where the ‘rules’ come in.

The ‘Rule’ of Alternation

Originally discussed by Prechter years ago, as an observation, the rule is basically described as:

‘The market will alternate in wave structure from complex to simple or from simple to complex.’

When we look at the SOXX, the implication is, we may be due for ‘simple’ wave structure (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly Candle

The weekly chart shows the potential.

The first leg down was complex, overlapping price action.

If there’s a break to the downside, the ‘rule’ says to expect price action to alternate from a prior complex structure, to simple (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Maverick of Wall Street

One recent example of such a move can be found at this link, time stamp 11:20.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The MAERSK ‘Message’

August 5, 2023 By in GLD, NVDA, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

‘He’s Dead, Jim’

What’s the MAERSK message?

The economy has collapsed.

He’s Dead, Jim

But wait! We’ve already written the script on what happens next:

Buy the dip, soft landing, no collapse until after the ‘elections’, stocks to soar, bull market just starting.

The Propaganda, Bot

A Bull Market Is Coming

Morgan Stanley thinks it’s a buying opportunity

Have Patience, Intel Investors!

Is this the crash-proof economy?

Not Time to Worry

The AI, Bot

Meanwhile, the SOXX and its loyal henchman, the AI bot, may have just ‘changed hands’.

Well, actually leveraged inverse SOXS, could be changing hands, shown below on the weekly chart.

Semiconductors Leveraged Inverse SOXS, Weekly

The massive volume in SOXS, over 369-million shares for the week represents (at the closing price) over $3.4-bln.

That may be the inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a reminder, here’s another example of ‘changing of hands’, link here. Since then, GLD has not topped that level.

Three-Hundred, Three Years (33)

Not since the South Sea Bubble of 1720, has there been an environment such as this.

Reference time stamp 11:10, in the link.

NVDA Earnings, Tick-Tock, Closer

One has to wonder, how NVDA, is going to ‘spin’ its upcoming earnings release and how the market will react.

Will it be, ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’, or just good ‘ol fashioned ‘sell’. Maybe it will be ‘buy, then sell’. 🙂

Who knows but it looks like the rest of the market’s not waiting around to find out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tales of The SOXX Top

August 2, 2023 By in 1987, Bonds, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Prechter, SOXS, SOXX, TLT, Wyckoff 4 Comments

Was It August 1st?

Was yesterday, the day?

The day the SOXX, closed higher but failed to print a new high.

It’s now early in the session (9:55 a.m., EST) and we have a new daily low.

There have been sell signals before but this one has a different ‘feel’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, bonds (TLT) gapped open lower and broke below support; rates are rising … again.

The 1987 Set-Up

Those old enough, remember the set-up. Rates up (bonds down) and market rising to all-time highs at the same time.

A chart of the ’87 crash is here. Note, the high was in August, that year.

Now, a video from Robert Prechter, about the current historic extremes.

‘Not since the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s’

Couple all of that with bonds (TLT) breaking down and we could have that ‘inflection point’, saying we’ve reached the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Mania Goes ‘Manic’

Going back to this post, it said to expect the AI proaganda to increase as we reach the top and reverse down.

If yesterday was that day, then we’ve got more articles coming about the downside being a ‘buying opportunity’.

It’s been the same throughout history

From a positioning standpoint and Wyckoff analysis perspective, under such conditions, one is to pick the weakest market to short and not the strongest (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ, Bear Market

The last update showed how positions can be de-risked.

There’s always uncertainty but working long enough in the markets and eventually an understanding is formed on how the game is played.

Fake, fabricated or ‘serendipitous’ news articles getting the public on the wrong side, are just part of the game.

In the early session, the GDXJ, is continuing its move lower.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Back To The ‘Elephant’

July 28, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, Positions, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, The Speck

The ‘AI’ Dog Keeps Biting

Upward price action in the SOXX, held overnight and then some.

A discretionary exit was made in the pre-market session at SOXS 8.42 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Switching gears, we’re leaving the SOXX and AI alone for now.

As mentioned in a prior post, the life insurance sector appears to be correlated with biotech. It’s a fact the life insurance companies are talking a hit from ‘excess’ payouts.

We all know or should know just what’s causing the ‘excess’, so we’ll leave it there.

That leads to the biotech sector (SPBIO) and what appears to be a downside reversal.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly

When looking at the chart for the past three years, one thing is certain; this is not a bull market.

The blue arrow shows the location of a short position opened (via LABD @ 14.70) in today’s pre-market session (not advice, not a recommendation).

A Hard Stop for the position is LABD 13.31.

Since that’s a fair distance from the entry, a discretionary exit may be made by the trader at any time based on the behavior of price action going forward.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When The ‘Dog’ Barks

July 27, 2023 By in INTC, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Intel (INTC) Up, In After-Hours

After-hours trading for Intel, show it’s up around +7%.

The company managed to post a profitable quarter; so, naturally the stock ‘launches’ based on the hopes of ‘recovery’.

One has to suppose the ‘n/a’ currently listed as P/E, reported by bigcharts.com, here, will be revised to show at least something.

SOXX, After Hours

A volatile day continues in the after-hours with SOXX, trading up about +0.66% (at 525.13).

The real question is, will that hold through to the next session or will it evaporate overnight.

Today’s Action(s)

As stated early in the day, the short position via SOXS, was exited with a profit for the trade series, around +3.7%.

The Semiconductor short via SOXS, was re-established later in the session at lower prices.

The new Hard Stop exit, is the SOXS low of 8.32 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Dogs Barking

We’re at the stage in this mass-psychosis mania where dogs (INTC), are starting to bark.

A full-blown downside, sustained, semiconductor (AI) reversal seems to be very close.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pre-Market … Exit

July 27, 2023 By in Positions, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

Taking Action Quickly

As of 7:21 a.m., EST in the pre-market session, the short positioning SOXS has been exited at Hard Stop 8.91 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Details on the trade to be released later (including a potential re-entering of position) later in the session.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Expect ‘AI’, Hype To Increase

July 26, 2023 By in Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 3 Comments

Distribution On The Way Down

If we’ve reversed from the top on the AI roadshow, expect the ‘easy money’ hype, to increase as price action heads lower.

It should be all too familiar; it’s a buying opportunity, the consumer is strong, the economy is strong … so, it goes.

The new, young, or uninformed ‘investor’, continues to average down, believing the hype; whatever’s happening to the downside, is just temporary.

Eventually, those participants start to sell.

Selling slowly at first, but then gathering steam. Those incorrectly positioned, provide the fuel for more downside.

With that, let’s go to the leveraged inverse fund SOXS.

Semiconductors, Leveraged Inverse SOXS, Daily

The chart is self-explanatory.

Hard Stop (definite exit) at the prior session low of SOXS 8.89. Soft Stop (trader discretion) at today’s session low of SOXS 9.21 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next up, and depending on price action, we’ll discuss a potential trading channel.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Throttle Whack!’ … SOXX

July 25, 2023 By in Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Short Seller, Shake-Out

Just in case someone’s not seen what a ‘whack’ looks like, here it is.

Notice, the kid on the left seems to be saying ‘It’s not that bad’ … oh, really? 🙂

A few seconds later we get to The Whack. The kids run off and the ‘old timer’ comes in to take their place, with his ear protection and respirator.

A perfect analogy for the markets.

SOXX, To New Highs, or Last Gasp?

If the bulls are going to regain control, this would be the place. If they can’t hold on, then it’s likely we’ve past the top last Tuesday, the 18th.

Depending on how the market closes the session (currently, 11:35 a.m., EST), the stop on the short position (via SOXS) may be moved higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Ideally, we need to have a new daily low on the SOXX (high on the SOXS) to move the stop.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

All The King’s Horses …

July 24, 2023 By in Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, The Maverick of Wall Street

And All The King’s Men …

Could Not Put The ‘AI’ Hype, Back Together Again

Over the weekend it’s been non-stop Artificial Intelligence (AI) hype.

Even now, as of this post, it continues with links like this one, this one, this one and on and on.

Despite all that, a funny thing is happening in the market.

The SOXX, is not moving higher.

This mass psychosis could be the largest public fleecing set-up, ever, in market history.

But wait, there’s even a more insidious twist.

As reported by The Maverick, link here (Time Stamp 10:45), the AI bandwagon is being hijacked by certain ‘entities’.

With that, the herd mentality can cause insane results.

So, one has to always be willing to exit a position if the unexpected shows up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

As of this post (11:37 a.m., EST), the SOXX is in a kind of ‘no man’s land’.

So far today, it has not made a new daily high or low.

Tight price action typically precedes a breakout whether it’s up or down.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s Lonely At The Top

July 23, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The ‘AI’ Top

We’re about to find out if last Tuesday, was the top in AI, or just another interim top on the way higher.

No matter the Taiwan Semi slow-down, mainstream media’s not even considering we’re near (or past) a potential long-term reversal.

For this update, the SOXX is being used as proxy for the AI mania. The chief cook and bottle washer in this latest delusion is Nvidia (NVDA), which reached a high on Friday, July 14th.

Basic Indicators, Wyckoff & The Cat

Even without using Wyckoff analysis, basic indicators like MACD, both on daily and weekly are telling us the momentum has slowed; on the daily, it’s outright reversed to the downside.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we’ve had an up-thrust (reversal) that’s been supported by decreasing up-volume and increasing down-volume (shown on daily, below).

The cat’s out of the bag with Taiwan’s earnings release.

What we have are delays, more delays, coupled with revenue slowdowns (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, NVDA, where’s the money? Where’s that $11-Billion?

Slow, At-First?

If we’re past the top, it could be slow at first. Maybe imperceptible that a significant reversal is at hand.

If that’s the case, it might all change on August 23rd, when NVDA releases its own earnings.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

The daily chart shows we’re holding below resistance (blue line) after an apparent reversal.

The probabilities are accumulating that we’re in some kind of sustainable reversal.

Next week is likely to show us if that assessment is correct (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Stated previously, this site does not provide advice.

With that said, here’s how it looks on the company’s spreadsheet for shorting the SOXX using leveraged inverse fund SOXS.

Next week’s action is likely to either force an exit of the position or allow for the trailing stop to be increased.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279