Category Archives: $SPSIBI

Anatomy of a Reversal

December 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-20, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI Leave a comment

Wyckoff Schematic

An excellent schematic tutorial on Wyckoff, can be found here.

Going to the link, scrolling down to ‘Distribution’, we have a schematic that includes the notation “UTAD”.

UTAD, stands for, Upthrust After Distribution.

The accompanying text for the schematic indicates the distribution has already taken place; UTAD, is essentially a ‘last gasp’ to see if there’s any more demand.

A fascinating question would be, ‘Was the heavy volume associated with this update an indication of distribution?’

Does that mean the subsequent blip higher in this update, was essentially UTAD?

Biotech XBI, Hourly

The heavy volume (potential) distribution is noted.

If this is a correct view of XBI, then right now, it’s at The Danger Point®; where risk on a short is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Hangs at The Wedge

December 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, LABD, LABD-25-20, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Waiting for The Fed?

The last update on biotech presented what was thought to be a reversal condition.

The huge downward thrust with volume, was taken as the clue, some large entity or entities (may) have just exited the market.

Well, it’s been seven trading days since then and it looks like we might be at a pivot point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

The reversal (Wyckoff up-thrust) was nearly textbook. The only thing absent, was a lower close for that day.

We’re now hovering at the edge.

The Fed announcement is just over an hour away.

Anything can happen.

MACD (magenta arrow) shows momentum has slowed and lines have crossed to the downside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (reversal) Bookends

December 3, 2025 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, LABD-25-19 2 Comments

Repeating Characteristics

Yesterday, biotech XBI was down on the most volume since May 6th, of this year.

For leveraged inverse fund LABD, it posted the heaviest upside volume, ever.

The chart shows a (potential) repeating characteristic for XBI that occurs at the point of trend change (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, anything can happen and today’s ‘test’ could fail with XBI continuing higher.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

The ‘up-thrust’ reversal zone is between support/resistance areas (far left, off chart) at the approximate location of the 50% retrace.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Reversal to Wedge

November 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-17, Up-Thrust, XBI

The Bulls, Back Off

As the chart shows, we have a terminating wedge.

The prior update (here) proposed we’re in up-thrust (reversal) condition.

That set-up subsequently morphed into the wedge, shown.

Either way, we’re not far away.

Price action closed today, down 0.18-pts below the high of the last update, November 14th.

During the past two trading sessions, volume has been consecutively lower; suggesting the bulls are backing off (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech At The Edge

November 15, 2025 By in Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI, Up-Thrust, LABD-25-16 1 Comment

Bearish MACD

The chart shows biotech XBI, struggling at resistance (blue line).

At the same time, we have a bearish divergence on MACD.

Taking a look at the components of XBI, link here, seven of those in the top ten, have no P/E at all (not advice, not a recommendation).

What could go wrong?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Monday’s Damage Assessment

October 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bert Dohmen, BIS, DRIP, DRV, DUST, DXD, FAZ, IBB, JDST, LABD, LABD-25-13, Positions, QID, SDS, SOXS, SPBIO, TZA, XBI

Where’s The Crash?

The YouTube weekend ‘consensus’ was for a Monday morning massacre.

So, where is it?

Bert Dohmen, said it best in this interview, (paraphrasing), ‘If everybody agrees with our analysis, then we have to get a new analysis’.

Monday’s First 15-Minutes

After the first 15-minutes of trade, an assessment was made on the ‘Leveraged Inverse Funds’.

The point being, since this site’s maintaining a short position in biotech (via LABD), how did it fare when compared to the other funds?

After the first 15-minutes of trade, the table at left shows all inverse funds being tracked, in the red, some painfully so (like SOXS, JDST, DUST).

All red, except for the two biotech’s, LABD and BIS.

Those two funds are short vehicles for biotech XBI and IBB, respectively.

The XBI index has not (yet) made a new daily low.

Conversely, the inverse fund LABD, has not made a new daily high.

With that said, the stop on LABD-25-13, remains at last Friday’s low of 33.17 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Markets Blow-Up … A Review

October 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bonds, CDNS, DIA, Dow 30, IBB, Natural Gas, SPBIO, TLT, UNG, WFC, Wyckoff, XBI

In The Aggregate

Whether or not we’re at the ‘anxiety’ point shown on the chart, is yet to be seen.

Markets are open this coming Monday, except for bonds, adding to the weekend angst.

Reviewing The (past) Week

Posts over last week, even the weeks before, showed from a Wyckoff perspective, something was about to happen.

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready, link here.

When The Bonds Spike, link here.

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66, link here.

Biotech (short) Set-Up, link here.

Top of The Dow, link here.

In retrospect and in aggregate, it’s now obvious something was amiss.

The ‘Art’ of Wyckoff

Wyckoff technique is more art than science, more intuitive than calculated, more ephemeral than certain.

We’ll get into what happens when logic overrides that art, in the next update; Nat-Gas UNG.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (short) Set-Up

October 9, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, IBB, LABD, LABD-25-13, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI 3 Comments

Breakout Into Resistance

Both biotech funds, IBB, and XBI, are now in an up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

In each case, the ETFs have pushed through a long-established trading range, straight into resistance.

The last update focused on less liquid IBB, because it was not known if heavily traded XBI, would push through its trading range (being the weaker of the two).

Since that initial update, both indices are now above their trading range.

Of course, what happens next is the question.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The blue line is long established resistance.

The black dashed line is the top of the trading range and the up-thrust condition.

At this point anything can happen.

XBI, could reverse immediately or grind its way along, dissipate momentum, or even move higher.

We’re at the point where the risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bubble’ & The ‘Beast’

September 26, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, BIS, IBB, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

Downside For Both?

The ‘bubble’ is obvious, Artificial Intelligence.

The ‘beast’, not so much, but revealed below.

The last update, presented a case for the SOXX top, a proxy for A.I.

Note: If the SOXX, has made its final high, it’s still very early in the reversal:

Wyckoff said a century ago, ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’.

That’s where we are now.

For biotech (IBB, XBI), different forces are at work.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

The 38.2%, retrace from 9/19 high, to 9/25 low, is in the vicinity of 140.90 (magenta dashed line).

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

There’s a possibility IBB, may test (upward) throughout the session, heading to (at or near) 38%, by the end of the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Auto Lender’s Implosion

September 21, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, ALLY, Biotech, CVNA, SPBIO, XBI

One of Many?

The last melt-down in 2008 – 2009, was precipitated by subprime mortgage.

This time, will it be auto loans?

Is this just one of many implosions to come?

Digging-in on auto finance, we have chief cook and bottle washer, Ally Financial. Old timers know this outfit as formerly GMAC.

Let’s not forget, Carvana (CVNA) and Ally are (potentially) joined at the hip, link here.

Moving on to the chart.

Ally Financial, ALLY, Weekly

This price action is eerily similar to biotech.

Note how long ALLY bounced around below support (in spring position) before finally moving to the upside.

Nearly a month ‘hugging the lows’, could be an underlying indication of weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next earnings release is scheduled for October 17th.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279