Category Archives: $SPSIBI

Sunday Night Futures

August 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, DIA-25-01, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Rebound, or Rout

Yesterday’s update, said that biotech XBI, finished the day in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; to (possibly) move higher into the target zone.

Today, we have this analysis, link here that indicates a similar scenario for the overall markets.

It’s possible there will be some upside bias this week (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re about an hour into the session; the S&P is trading flat along with the Dow,

If last week’s downside was going to continue aggressively, a much lower start would be expected.

So far, that’s not happening.

Short The Dow

A trade not discussed, is the short in the Dow, DIA-25-01.

Depending on price action in the coming week, that short may be increased.

If so, it’ll be discussed at that time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … On The Road Again

August 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Heading To The Set-Up

For a while, it looked like the last update’s conclusions were incorrect; that biotech (XBI), was not going to make it to up-thrust condition.

Then, we had Friday’s action, a textbook reversal bar.

So, now, it looks like there’s potential to get back on track to the target area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Price action penetrated support, XBI is now in ‘spring position’.

After Friday’s downswing for the overall markets, there could be some upside bias early in the week (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s ‘Algorithmic’ Grind

July 30, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Richie Naso, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Day by Day, Inching Higher

It’s been over two months, since this post.

As the chart shows, biotech XBI, has made it all the way back, to the (blue line) resistance area.

However, it has not pushed above that area to create an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

Richie Naso, on Algorithms

Mr. Naso gives us a brief (technical) three-minute detail on why we should expect XBI, to penetrate the resistance area, link here.

He’s describing false moves (Wyckoff springs and up-thrusts) that trap the inexperienced and unsuspecting; it’s what markets do.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Notice the ‘choppy’ action.

It’s as if XBI, is looking for some kind of resolution, like maybe, a false breakout.

There’s no guarantee we’ll get above resistance. If it happens, there’s no guarantee it’s a false breakout.

However, as Naso says, the ‘probability’ of a false breakout, is (in his words) ‘above 80%’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

First Semis, … Now, Biotech

July 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI

The Next Set-Up

With the SOXX, reversal apparently at hand, (SOXX-25-05, active), we can continue to the next potential set-up.

As a reminder, this site’s focused on ‘strategy’ first; what’s likely to happen in a big way. Then, tactics, and after that, focus.

Moving on, we have this post from nearly two months ago; forecasting potential price action for biotech, XBI.

Clicking on the link above, reviewing the chart, let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

We’re close to the target and potential stops.

Pushing above resistance, does not guarantee a reversal.

It only means there’s likely to be instability; reading that price action, if/when it happens, will help determine the next likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pre-Market Action & Stops

June 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CRWD, CRWD-25-05, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, WMT, WMT-25-02, XBI

Watch The Highs

All three short positions discussed in last night’s update are trading lower in the pre-market session.

On a percentage basis, Carvana (CVNA) is down the most by about -1%.

At this point, the trading plan is simple; stops for all three are at, or near, the last session highs (not advice not a recommendation).

Moving on, we have an index that may be getting interesting, biotech XBI.

Back in late May, was this post.

Let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

A casual inspection of the chart shows price action ‘respecting’ the Fibonacci retrace levels.

For the past two weeks, XBI has drifted lower without decisive conviction.

It could continue its path to lower levels.

However, for a dynamic, sustained move, we need some type of catalyst, like taking out the (potential) stops at the location noted.

On the sidelines for now (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (short) Targets

May 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI

Where The Stops, Are Hiding

Let’s say, you’re a big player in the markets, with deep pockets.

Your timeframe is medium, to long-term, months-to-years.

If you were short biotech XBI, where are your stops?

That’s what we’ll look for, in the chart below.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The un-marked chart, first.

Where does the eye go to (naturally) as a ‘safe’ location for stops on a short position?

Now, for where the stops may be hiding … and of course where we want to wait for a short (entry) opportunity.

The location shown is just below the 61.8%, retrace level and price action congestion.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Curve Fitting’ Biotech … Part 2

April 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Back To The Daily

Yesterday, the 3-Day chart was the best fit for biotech, XBI.

After Thursday’s action was complete, now the daily looks better.

Either way, we’ve got a tight stop (nearly hit, yesterday), and a trendline; decisive violation of either one, indicates an exit of (short biotech) LABD-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

There’s so much going on with this chart.

We’re at the point where the downtrend either continues, or morphs into a different scenario.

Even as this post was created (late Thursday), the after-hours session continues slightly lower for XBI; an encouraging sign, if short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Curve Fitting’ Biotech … Part 1

April 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci, First

We’re letting the market decide what support/resistance, trendlines, and Fibonacci levels are significant.

We’ll even make an attempt to pick the timeframe(s) that best describes current action.

There’s a lot going on in a market sense, as well as ‘behind the scenes’ with revelations like this, and this, and this.

With that said, we’re looking at the 3-Day chart and Fibonacci levels.

Biotech XBI, 3-Day

The 3-Day is being used; it best shows current trending action (planned for next update).

The XBI, has near perfect (Fibonacci) symmetry.

Price action has made its way back to the 23.6%, level, and is hesitating.

Watching the action in real time, XBI gives the sense it does not know quite what to do … is it in a pause, gathering steam to move higher, or was the massive squeeze, on Wednesday, the 9th, all there was?

Positioning

As stated in the earlier update, XBI action on the 15th, put it at The Danger Point®; the location where risk was least for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s been slow going since then (ratcheting lower) but the one thing XBI, is not doing … is moving significantly higher.

More trade discussion, stop levels, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Squeeze

April 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Biotech’s, Tale of Two Channels

What happens after the squeeze?

If it really was a squeeze, then demand evaporates, and prices (tend to) collapse (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the case of biotech, not only did we have a potential squeeze, two separate trading channels appear to be in effect.

Biotech, SPBIO, Daily

Both channels have contact points, Fibonacci 5 Days apart.

The more aggressive channel (grey dashed lines) has yet to be fully confirmed.

At this point, it’s essentially one contact on the right side.

Positioning

Remaining short this sector with LABD-25-08.

The stop has been moved (up on LABD) down to the XBI high, at XBI 76.24; effectively 10.24 on LABD, (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Next Leg (Down)

April 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

A-B-C, Correction

The market hits just keep coming for biotech.

First, it was this (RFK Jr., nominated, then confirmed), then it was this, and now, the latest is this.

While the financial press toys with the idea ‘the worst is over‘, (which might be true), with biotech, price action itself says it may be preparing for its next leg … lower.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

We’re drilling down to the hourly; it shows (as of 12:24 p.m., EST) a Fibonacci a-b-c, corrective retrace.

Wave ‘a’, was the massive short squeeze.

Wave ‘b’ was a test of the lows; then on to wave ‘c’, the same (net) distance as wave ‘a’, making it a 1:1 (potentially complete) corrective move.

Also note the ‘alternation’.

Wave ‘a’, was essentially straight up. Then, wave ‘c’ alternates and is a labored slow process, ratcheting higher.

We’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk of a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short, Trade: LABD-25-08, with stop at the LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279