Monthly Archives: July 2025

Carvana’s Incredible Numbers

July 31, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, KMX

Exhaustion Gap?

With rival CarMax, down nearly -63%, from its all-time highs, increasing loan-loss reserves, and boots-on-the-ground reporting like this, it’s interesting that somehow, Carvana seems to have transcended the fundamentals. 🙂

Or is it really as Jesse Livermore used to say, ‘all about the numbers’.

No, not the earnings, P/E, or any other ‘financial’ metric, but numbers like Fibonacci, as we’ll see below.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

We’re still in pre-market trading with about thirty minutes to go before the open.

If CVNA, opens at its current level, it’s right at the 261.8%, Fibonacci projection and all-time highs.

Short interest on CVNA is currently listed at 9.36%, here.

If the open is at the level shown, it’s likely to clear out some (or most) that are short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Update … Carvana All-Time-Highs

July 30, 2025 By in CVNA

After Hours Session

The last update on Carvana was here.

“CVNA, could just blip higher at the open and reverse.

It could spend the whole day at the test level.

It could blow through to new daily highs … literally, anything.”

Well, it looks like the ‘literally, anything’, is what happened.

With earnings just released in the after-hours session, CVNA is trading at 382, with a peak thus far, of 386.99 (as of 4:34 p.m., EST).

That peak is right at the (higher) 261.8%, Fibonacci projection level shown in this update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s ‘Algorithmic’ Grind

July 30, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Richie Naso, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Day by Day, Inching Higher

It’s been over two months, since this post.

As the chart shows, biotech XBI, has made it all the way back, to the (blue line) resistance area.

However, it has not pushed above that area to create an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

Richie Naso, on Algorithms

Mr. Naso gives us a brief (technical) three-minute detail on why we should expect XBI, to penetrate the resistance area, link here.

He’s describing false moves (Wyckoff springs and up-thrusts) that trap the inexperienced and unsuspecting; it’s what markets do.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Notice the ‘choppy’ action.

It’s as if XBI, is looking for some kind of resolution, like maybe, a false breakout.

There’s no guarantee we’ll get above resistance. If it happens, there’s no guarantee it’s a false breakout.

However, as Naso says, the ‘probability’ of a false breakout, is (in his words) ‘above 80%’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financials … Test & Low

July 29, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, Up-Thrust, XLF, XLF-25-04

Reducing The Risk

In a quiet, almost imperceptible move, financial sector, XLF has topped, reversed, now printed a new daily low.

Yesterday’s update said there might be higher action into the day’s close.

It looks like that ‘higher’ action, was today.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Daily

The zoom area shows there’s no ‘reversal’ bar like we see in trading textbooks.

The (short) entry signal was: Breakout to all-time highs, then, next day printing a new daily low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, today, we have another daily low.

Positioning

An initial (small size) short was opened late yesterday, XLF-25-04. As price action rose into its test early this session, the short was increased (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financial Sector, XLF, Highs

July 28, 2025 By in BAC-25-04, CRWD-25-09, CVNA-25-08, Financial Sector, Positions, SOXX-25-08, Up-Thrust, XLF 1 Comment

Then, A New Daily Low

On Friday, financial sector XLF, posted all-time-highs.

Then, today in the late session, XLF, just posted a new daily low.

We’re at the extreme, The Danger Point®, where the risk of being wrong (on a short), is least (not advice not a recommendation).

There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest the market indices are stretched. The latest installment is here.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Daily

The XLF, is in up-thrust condition.

Posting a new daily low provides the risk on a short trade; yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

That new daily low, puts XLF in a minor spring position; there’s a probability of some upside going into the close.

If so, that further narrows the risk on a short.

Positioning

All other positions have been closed except, SOXX-25-08.

Depending on price action, the plan is short XLF, if it rises into the close (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-08, Gold & Silver, Positions, Semiconductors, SIU25, SOXX, SOXX-25-08

Gold, Silver, & SOXX

Both gold and silver futures have opened lower.

Looking at the silver contract, SIU25, it shows the past two weeks have closed lower.

Last week’s session low was 38.1.

Tonight’s session low (as of 7:38 p.m., EST) is just ticks away at 38.135.

While gold and silver appear to be under some pressure, there’s no definitive trade setup (an opinion), so, we’re going to focus instead on the A.I., mania sector, the SOXX.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent recovery high and short set-up has already been covered here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

What the chart shows, is the reasonable expectation, either the SOXX, is going to test resistance (moving higher) like Carvana did, link here, or down to test support.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike’s ‘Outside-Down’

July 26, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-09, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute

Is Time Running Out?

The last update on CrowdStrike, said this:

“The coming week may see an attempt to rally. If so and depending on price action, the risk on a short position may be reduced.”

That’s what happened; CrowdStrike rallied, then reversed again.

It also turns out, that rally may have been a test of the upper wedge boundary (shown below).

CrowdStrike CRWD, Weekly

As stated by Wyckoff, typical market behavior for patterns or trend breaks, is for some kind of test.

Last week, specifically, Monday the 21st, may have been that test.

Positioned short as trade CRWD-25-09, with stop at the week’s high of 490.04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Top & Reversal

July 25, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

‘Evidence of A Struggle’

Yesterday’s Carvana breakdown, was ‘Day 13’, of a week’s long struggle at recent highs.

We’re about thirty minutes before the open; CVNA, is up in the pre-market, set to test the breakdown.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence, the car market has (already) imploded. The latest installment is here.

‘Delinquencies at the highest, ever’

From a price action standpoint, anything can happen.

CVNA, could just blip higher at the open and reverse.

It could spend the whole day at the test level.

It could blow through to new daily highs … literally, anything.

Risk Defined

From a risk standpoint on a short, it’s well defined; yesterday’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note that CVNA, earnings are set for next week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

TEL & A.I.

July 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CRWD, TEL

‘Interconnected’

Yesterday, TE Connectivity (TEL), launched nearly 12%, based on earnings, links here, and here.

Today, another push higher, nearly 2%.

The ‘reason’ for the move as is typical these days, was A.I.

TEL produces electrical connectors and their A.I., related business is robust.

Stepping back a bit before we look at the chart, some background. The company has an ‘interesting’ history (as told by Wiki), link, here.

Since this is the first post on TEL, we’re looking at the longer term.

TE Connectivity, TEL, Monthly

It’s a (terminating wedge) similar to CRWD but coving a longer timeframe (not advice, not a recommendation).

With about one more week to go for the month, the top trendline is an estimated location.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

c

c

Texas Instruments … Implodes

July 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, TXN, Wyckoff

The ‘Go-Forward’, Model?

Is this how it’s going to be when the entire SOXX, A.I. bubble, implodes?

One gap-down, after another?

TXN, earnings, link here, looks benign.

Certainly not anything seen as a material cause for an 11% crash, overnight.

‘Weaker than expected’, does not a forecast, make. Price action could have easily ‘shrugged off’ the ‘weaker than expected’. 🙂

The reality, TXN is down hard with SOXX, down with it.

The probability of reversal for the SOXX, was in price action itself; covered here and here:

This is the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

From the 7/15 high, to 7/21, high, was Fibonacci 5-Days.

Stop on short position SOXX-25-07, has been lowered from 250.19, to 246.50 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279