Monthly Archives: August 2025

Biotech … Closes The Gap

August 21, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-25-02 2 Comments

Now, What?

Today’s higher action in XBI, closed the gap opened on the 19th.

Technically speaking, for short trade, XBI-25-02, the original stop has not been moved (still at the 8/18th, high).

The expectation from this site’s perspective, we’re in an up-thrust condition that may ultimately resolve itself downward (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, we’re about to find out.

Bitoech XBI, Daily Close

At this juncture, downward thrust energy (Force Index) is larger than upward.

After hours, has the XBI, trading slightly higher.

So, we’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from the August 18th, high. There could be a slight opening ‘pop’, then reversal.

If not, then time to exit (not advice, not a recommendiaotn).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Spotify Drops, Then Tops

August 20, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, Positions, SPOT, SPOT-25-01, Up-Thrust

Upside Gone?

At the last earnings release, Spotify had its worst day in two years, link here.

The reaction was immediate, price action down hard.

Close inspection shows, on a daily basis and also weekly, the amount of downside thrust energy (Elder’s Force Index), was the highest, ever.

In short, downside force was massive.

Spotify, SPOT, Daily

The weekly chart has a similar look, largest weekly downside energy, ever.

Attempted Recovery … Not

After the hit on July 29th, price action spent the next two-weeks attempting to recover … which at this point, looks to have failed.

Short SPOT, as SPOT-25-01, with stop near today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Test & Reverse

August 19, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-11, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

On A Closing Basis

The goings-on, in the car market, new or used, are unprecedented, link here.

The video is clear; the market has already imploded.

Carmax (KMX) seems to be an accurate reflection of that, with it being down over -62%, from its all-time highs.

However, for some mysterious reason that’s (almost) sure to come out later, Carvana, is only down only -17%, from its all-time highs.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

On a close basis, CVNA tested resistance, posted an up-thrust on the 18th, then reversed.

Adding to the intrigue, that up-thrust was on Fibonacci Day 13, from all-time highs.

Referring back to Livermore’s criteria, link here, if the trade meets requirements (i.e., up-thrust), then execute.

In this case, that meant to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade: CVNA-25-11, with stop at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech …

August 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-25-02

Nascent Reversal

Long or short, this is the spot where anything can happen.

Friday’s action in XBI, made it Fibonacci 89 Days, from the April 9th, lows.

Today printed higher, reversed (slightly), closing lower, making this Fibonacci Week 21 (-1) from the April lows.

Trading Coach … Livermore

Getting back to trading insights from Livermore (last update), he stresses the adage, ‘If it meets requirements, then execute’.

At this point that’s the case for biotech, XBI.

Biotech Short (again)

We’re in Up-Thrust position (above resistance) have met a Fibonacci count, then printed a reversal bar; the trading action is/was to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: XBI-25-02, stop in the vicinity of today’s high (not advice, not are recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 17, 2025 By in Livermore, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Livermore’s ‘Rules’

Judging from the timestamp(s) on comments from this link and this one, for whatever reason, the ‘algorithm’ decided to just now, put these videos in the ‘in-box’.

Taken from the video at the first link, we have this:

‘Cut what’s not working’

This trading adage flies in the face of the ‘engineering’ mindset.

The engineer (generalizing) does not cut what’s not working. No, they need to know, they must know, ‘why’ it’s not working.

This type of thinking is burned in, drilled in, hammered in, during engineering school and the workplace.

If you’re design’s not working, you better know ‘why’. 🙂

That makes the typical engineer unable to handle the fact, no matter how much analysis was done, how much research, the trade’s not working.

Wyckoff said it best nearly a century ago, ‘The why always comes out later, after the fact‘.

The Media & ‘Why’

Of course, the media wants ‘investors’ to search for the ‘why’. They encourage the ‘why’, they have experts come on and discuss the ‘why’ … the ‘why’ is endless.

The result: Focus is shifted away from the truth (price action itself) to other non-productive questions.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Goldman, ‘Yes’ … Dow, ‘No’?

August 16, 2025 By in DIA, DIA-25-03, Dow 30, Goldman, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

What Does The Market Say?

According to Goldman Sachs, link here, they’re calling for continued upside.

Anything can happen.

For those on this site, the focus is not on what anybody’s saying, but what’s the market actually doing?

We’ll use the Dow 30 proxy DIA, for this update.

Dow 30 ETF, DIA, Daily

Repeating pattern: Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

The Dow has been struggling each time it gets to this resistance area, since December of last year.

Friday was a gap-higher at the open, then retrace, closing below resistance (upper blue line).

From a risk on a short position, it’s clear. The stop would be last Friday’s high.

Currently short as DIA-25-03, with stop just above DIA 452.05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Stop & Drop

August 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, Richie Naso, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-11, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-25-01 2 Comments

Fibonacci, ‘Day 89’

Trading legend, Richie Naso says the ‘algorithms control the market’.

He also says, they’re trained to go to technical areas.

Are they also trained to ‘count’?

Or does the count just materialize as a natural outcome of controlling the market?

Three days ago, was this post, showing a probable outcome for the SOXX.

Both time, and distance, were projected; time, as in Fibonacci Day 89, and distance as in Fibonacci projection to the 261.8% level (April 7th, lows).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Yesterday, was ‘Day 89’.

Today’s close was below yesterday’s low and below resistance (upper blue line).

The Fibonacci 261.8% projection was to (approx.) 259.

Yesterday’s high was 255.06, a difference of just 1.54%.

Currently short, as SOXX-25-11; hard stop at the session high (not advice not a recommendation).

Separately, XBI-25-01 was closed as it continued to edge higher. Today is XBI’s own ‘Day 89’ from the April 9th, lows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The HOOD, Tests its Reversal

August 14, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-04, Positions, Retail Investor, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Repeating Pattern

The last update on HOOD, said there’s a potential trading channel, link here.

The next day, price action negated that channel with a break to the upside.

That upside now looks like a ‘spring’, leading straight into an ‘up-thrust’; a repeating pattern.

HOOD reversed from its highs and today, looks to be testing that breakdown.

Volume for this session contracted by -37.5%, when compared to yesterday.

Robinhood, HOOD, Daily

From a trading perspective, a short was opened yesterday; HOOD-25-04.

Position size was increased today as price action was rising into its test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech in (short) Range

August 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-25-01

Pushes Past Resistance

Will biotech XBI, be ‘picked-off’ by the shorts?

Three months ago, was this post; identifying a potential area for reversal.

Looking for the set-up, a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’, more commonly known as false breakout.

Biotech XBI, Daily

After waiting, watching price action on a daily basis, almost getting sucked-in (short) too early, we now have a potential false breakout.

The penetration of resistance is not quite what was expected (meaning, a much larger thrust) and there may be more upside to come.

With that said, as can be seen from the side-bar, an initial short was opened today, XBI-25-01 (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mind Games

August 12, 2025 By in 1929, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist 4 Comments

On A Colossal Scale

‘The are just making it all up’, link here (time stamp: 10:12).

‘Doing it on purpose’ (time stamp 11:50).

The statements were referring to the financial ‘media’.

The ability of the media to manipulate the herd with such ease is shocking and disappointing at the same time.

One has to wonder, was it like this in 1929?

Moving on to the A.I. mania, we have yet another potential high in the SOXX … today or tomorrow (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Tomorrow, is Fibonacci Day 89, from the April 7th, lows.

Another set-up, with Fibonacci target.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279