Category Archives: One Way Pockets

Gold Breaks Trend … Down

June 28, 2025 By in David Weis, GLD, Gold & Silver, One Way Pockets, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Spike Lower, or Long Term?

Seven weeks ago, was this post, giving a ‘heads up’, gold (GLD), had just printed massive upward thrust energy.

A print like that, happened only once before, near the 2011, top.

From that top, GLD, traded in a range for over a year before heading into a sustained decline.

That decline lasted three years, GLD down -46%.

So, here we are. 🙂

We’ve posted massive upward thrust energy seen only once before, a potential top, sideways action for just over two-months; then, trend breaks down.

Sounds about right.

Now, all-of-a sudden, professionals may be selling (or set, to sell), link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold GLD, Daily Close

We’re going to look at GLD, a bit differently. That is, the repeating pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Human psychology does not change.

Buying on the way down.

From ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, the author had access to client accounts, analyzing their behavior over bull and bear cycles.

From his findings:

Once a stock had reached its peak and started a long decline, that’s where most of it was ‘handed out’. Sold to the public as it was moving lower … then, lower, still.

Wyckoff seconds this truth; ‘those on the wrong side of the trade, provide (most of) the fuel, for the way lower’.

Short Term, Long Term, or Not at All

As this update presented, we’ve had a potential top indication for GLD that’s only happened once before.

The last time, it was over four years before GLD, bottomed and started the next bull run.

It’s impossible to know if this time is different.

However, price action itself, will tell us the next probable direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bookmark This Page …

September 8, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, Interest Rates, One Way Pockets, SLV, Solar Power

We’ll Be Back

No sooner had yesterday’s post been published, than a scant few hours later, we have this:

Silver, hero of the ‘new economy’.

What new economy?

That would be Solar Energy and Artificial Intelligence; two bubbles that have already popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Going a bit farther back to this post, a proposal that more distribution takes place on the way down, than up.

At least, that’s the way it was back in 1917, when this text was first published.

Is what we see here, touting a premise that’s already expired, not the same (distribution) script of a century ago?

Bookmark & Back

As was done with this post where the ‘Fed Pivot’ was discussed, now renamed to ‘rate cut’, the page was bookmarked and reviewed six months later.

That review was in the summer of last year!

Of course, there was no Fed Pivot (rate cut) to be found.

So, we’ll do the same here but with a caveat.

That is, silver may indeed rise in price for reasons discussed many times (miner implosion).

However, we’re really focused on that ‘new economy’.

Let’s see if six months from now, we’re all humming along in a Brave New World.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia, ‘Whack’ & ‘Back’

August 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, One Way Pockets, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Distribution On The Way Down

It was a wild ride in the after-hours session and the pre-market.

As of this post (8:31 a.m., EST), NVDA is trading down about -4 pts., at 120.70.

The SOXX, is essentially flat, less than one point lower than yesterday’s close.

So, what to do?

Distribution

If Nvidia is following the script of typical market distribution, then it’s a low probability it will make a new daily high above yesterday’s 128.33.

With that said, the action is simple (but not easy).

Since there’s a position short, SOXS-24-13, the stop has been moved as shown in the chart below (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors, Leveraged Inverse SOXS, Daily

If Nvidia is in distribution, it will be interesting to see if price action follows the script as presented over a century ago, in One Way Pockets.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Signs of The SOXX

August 24, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, One Way Pockets, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Has The Plug Been Pulled?

More distribution takes place on the way down, than on the way up.

From the book ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, analyzing actual client accounts and trading behaviors, we have this (paraphrasing):

‘It was from pullbacks of record high prices, where the most distribution took place’

It’s a psychological, repeatable, phenomenon. We know it today as ‘Buy the dip’.

The problem is, buy the dip doesn’t work when the trend changes from up to down.

All of which brings us to ‘Signs of the SOXX’.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

“What do you see?”

Marking up the chart, we see the SOXX, is potentially at the confluence of both resistance and trendline.

Another label for the possible ‘contact’ is:

The Danger Point®

This is where the risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

With the Fed release taken as ‘good news‘, it’s reasonable to propose all the good news maybe already out.

Who’s left to buy?

The ‘Right’ Answer

If we just saw a test of resistance (solid black line), then there’s only one (or a variation of one) right answer at the next session.

That is, SOXX, price action (by the close) to be either net sideways or down (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that does not happen, and there’s buoyancy in price action, one can conclude there’s (seller) ‘absorption’ taking place at these levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

One Way Pockets

November 19, 2020 By in DUST, GDX, One Way Pockets

One hundred-three years ago, a brief 64-page text was published where a broker at a trading firm analyzed client accounts.

The year was 1915, and the market was at all-time highs.  The purpose of the analysis was to see how the active clients fared after a record breaking run-up.

“Like a great majority of our customers, these traders had been bullish on the munition [World War I] and standard industrial stocks during the great speculative boom of that year, and now, with the stocks in which they had been operating up from 15 to 100 points each, their profits were relatively small and their commitments [i.e. margin] larger than at any preceding stage of the movement.”

Basically, these customers were the herd.  Profits, if any, were slim and they are all-in at the high … and on margin.

Just five years later, that same market had lost nearly two-thirds of its value and is down over -61%.  The book is called One Way Pockets. 

Fast forward over one hundred years. We have The Money GPS with this report; Fund inflows at the highest in 20-years and nobody going short.  Well, almost nobody.

A huge amount of the population is out of work and most likely relying on the markets to make up the difference.  Remember back in the day, when it was bad if there were 350,000 jobless claims?

The middle class is in the midst of destruction and will (when it’s all over) basically be eliminated.  It will usher in, ‘neo feudalism’. 

It’s not a new idea as Prechter predicted as much nearly twenty years ago. 

This backdrop or macro if you will, has produced the sentiment driving the analysis on this site as well as more in-depth technical data on the host firm’s website.

Taking all into account, under the conditions of today, this moment, we’re short the Senior Miners (GDX) using DUST as the trading vehicle (not a recommendation, not advice).  The stop has been moved up to DUST 19.58.

Quotes used with permission.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.