Category Archives: Positions

CrowdStrike … Then & Now

June 19, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-04, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

‘Somebody, Always Knows …’

CrowdStrike may have reached a top, or maybe ‘the’ top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on price action, this update could be part of a series.

With the chart below, we’re going to start first with ‘then’, and also first, with some background on the cyber ‘glitch’.

Background

The software crash of July 19th, 2024, was the result of an update, not external cyber-attack, link here.

Damage as result of lost revenue (for subscribers), was in the $Billions … with a ‘B’. 🙂

The effects of that loss are still reverberating, evidenced by CrowdStrike’s earnings, links here, here, and last year, here.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily

As noted (on the chart), there was clear evidence something was wrong, well before the ‘glitch’.

The most recent earnings release saw a sharp drop, -8.9%, at the lows; volume doubled from the prior session.

Then, nine trading days later, CRWD, inches to a new all-time high.

Yesterday’s action was down with a potential ‘change of character’.

Currently short: CRWD-25-04, with a stop near the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wal-Mart, Support Crumbles

June 17, 2025 By in Positions, WMT, WMT-25-01

Consecutive Sessions, Lower

For WMT, the past ten trading sessions, have all closed lower.

Performing a quick (visual) look on WMT daily data, there has been no other occurrence of ten consecutive lower closes, going back to 7/1/19 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s close for WMT was 94.25; after-hours (as of 8:12 p.m., EST) has WMT, continuing down slightly, at 94.03.

Wal-Mart WMT, Weekly

As noted, there was an attempted breakout that has failed.

The blue line is now a significant resistance level.

Currently short (WMT-25-01), with a tight stop at today’s high, 94.82 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Overnight, Oil Spikes Higher

June 13, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XOP, XOP-25-01 1 Comment

Bull Market, or Not

Overnight, oil futures launched higher.

Selected news links, below:

Oil Could Hit $130 In “Worst Case Scenario”: JPMorgan, link here.

Images Emerge Of Tehran Destruction After Major Israeli ‘Preemptive Attack’; IRGC Chief Killed. link here

Crude propelled by Israeli attacks on Iran; ES -1.1%, DXY +0.8% – Newsquawk US Market Open, link here

Crude +8%, ES -1.5% after Israel conducts strikes on Iranian nuclear & military targets – Newsquawk Europe Market Open, link here.

Oil, Bull Market?

Even as this post is being created (8:54 a.m., EST), oil futures are backing off overnight highs.

It’s what happens next, that’s important.

If oil and related markets like XOP, can’t hold or surpass those highs, well then, we have our answer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Oil & Gas, XOP, Daily

In the pre-market session, XOP is trading just below the 61.8%, Fibonacci projection.

If the XOP wave is ‘corrective’, shown as ‘a-b-c’ above, that means it’s against the main trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Are Bulls Leaving GDX?

June 11, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ-25-01, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions

Volume Retreats

The chart of Senior Miners, GDX, at left, shows successive declines in print high, close high, and volume on net up days.

This is a subtle indication, the bulls may be backing off to see what happens next.

After all, it’s been non-stop cheerleading by the press:

Ditch the SPX – Precious Metals Are the Real Deal, link here.

Silver Is Finally Soaring: Here’s Why, link here.

Metallic Mayhem: Platinum Pops, Silver Squeezes, Gold Brews, link here.

On the other side, inflation seems to be slowing, absent, or even (gasp) declining.

What’s going to happen if/when there’s a ‘deflation’ scare?

Fearmongering Pundits Disappointed AGAIN As Consumer Prices Refuse To Surge On Trump Tariffs, link here.

Positioning

Currently short GDX, with a tight stop near yesterday’s high @ 52.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Breakout or Not?

June 7, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-02, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SLV 1 Comment

We’re at The Target

So, which is it?

Door No. 1

Silver’s in the long (decades long) awaited breakout to hyperinflationary heaven, or …

Door No. 2

Silver has met its Fibonacci target, ready for reversal, sideways action, or …

Door No. 3

None of the above.

Then, what about the Miners?

It looks like they (GDX) have already decided.

No sooner had Friday’s update been released, they appear to have reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, there’s a lot going on in the markets and it’s happening fast. We’ve already been told what’s (likely to be) coming.

Back to silver, SLV.

Silver SLV, Weekly

The chart shows what looks to be a corrective a-b-c (against the trend) move that’s lasted several years.

Note the ‘alternation’ of the moves.

Wave ‘a’ was dynamic, straight up. Next wave higher, wave ‘c’, is choppy and overlapping.

Moving in closer, we have the following.

The chart itself, says we’re back to the volume ‘spikes’ that typically occur (for SLV) at, or near, the end of a move (not advice, not a recommendation).

To add intrigue, note the massive downward thrust of Force Index during the ‘Tariff’ uproar.

Is this another hint of (pending) reversal?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver, Nears The ‘Target’

June 6, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV, JDST, Positions, JDST-25-12, MDB, MDB-25-01 1 Comment

What Happens, Then?

Let’s look at silver’s ‘breakout’ and see where the move might be headed.

A standard Fibonacci projection tool is shown on the silver chart; then, an additional chart (of MDB) presents how it looks, when met.

Silver SLV, Monthly

We’re very near the ‘100%’ projection.

Now, for an example of how it looks when the projection is met (exactly).

MongoDB, MDB, Daily

Price action hits the 261.8% exactly, after the earnings release.

After getting ‘whacked’ on positioning short the miners, all positions closed.

Standing aside for now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sell, Into The ‘Heat’

June 5, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-15-01, Positions

Against The Herd

Yesterday, CrowdStrike came on the radar with its less than stellar, earnings release.

That, along with pre-market action, put CRWD on the ‘short’ list (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, no P/E, and no yield. 🙂

The open was well below support.

It was tempting to go short immediately; the challenge, wait as long as possible (and not miss the entry).

CrowdStrike CRWD, 15-minute

Sell, into the ‘heat’.

Short entry @ 468.285 (note: correcting yesterday’s error of 468.25).

As the short was entered, CRWD, was screaming higher, nearly straight up.

We can see in retrospect; the entry was near the high.

In the markets, you’re either early, or late; I’d rather be early (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike … Whacked!

June 4, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-15-01, Positions

Just The Beginning?

A self-inflicted wound.

Already short @ 468.25, CRWD-25-01, with stop to be the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Earnings release just out, shows, Revenues ‘below estimates’, link here.

CrowdStrike website, link here.

History of CrowdStrike from Wiki (not an endorsement), link here.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Breakout?

June 3, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-12, Positions, SLV, ZeroHedge

Gold & Silver Miners (shorts) Capitulate?

Did the shorts just run for the exits?

Yesterday’s hysteria created yet another potential (sustainable) silver breakout, maybe.

Silver Surges: Breaking out of Triangle Pattern to New Highs in 2025, link here.

Producing another rush by the herd, attempting to trade what’s already happened.

The Silver Squeeze Awakens: Options Market Screams for More, link here.

The last update said ‘today could be the day’ … the day we get a downside reversal in the miners.

Instead, we have potential JDST short-side capitulation; with inference of GDXJ, downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners 2X Leveraged Inverse Fund JDST, Daily

Today is an important day.

Will we get follow-through on GDXJ (up) and JDST (down), or will the hysteria fade?

If this really is a silver squeeze, one would expect the market (SLV) to scream ever-higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Gap Higher (pre-market)

June 2, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-04, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-12, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Is Today, The Day?

Gold miners, higher in the pre-market (as of 8:31 a.m., EST).

Looking at Senior Miners GDX, we’re at the edge of the lake.

This is where a trend continues (higher in this case) or it’s exhausted and will post sideways or reverse.

Senior Miners GDX, Daily

Important note: Today is Fibonacci Day 13, from the ‘spring’ lows to ‘up-thrust’ high(s)

Since this site’s already short (JDST-25-12), we’ll be watching the morning action closely 🙂

Other Markets

The expectation for Boeing, BA, was to begin its reversal after the ‘test’ last Friday.

In the pre-market, that’s not happening. It has not posted a new daily high (above last Thursday’s high), but it’s not going lower either.

BA-25-04, exited with -0.67% loss (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279