Category Archives: Semiconductors

Delta Stalls, after Earnings

July 12, 2025 By in Airlines, Artificial Intelligence, DAL, DAL-25-02, Livermore, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-04, WMT, WMT-25-04, Wyckoff

Straight Up, to Resistance

Delta’s latest earnings release provided an excellent opportunity for a ‘changing of hands’.

We’ll have to see what happens next, to verify that premise (not advice, not a recommendation).

In a scene that could be straight out of Livermore and Wyckoff’s observations, the big players need huge volume to enter or exit positions.

For Delta, that volume event was (potentially) last Thursday.

Delta DAL, Daily

Stright up to resistance on massive volume.

Then, the next day, a lower close.

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

As noted, we’re at the 61.8%, retrace of the entire move; January 22nd, highs, to ‘tariff panic’, April 4th, lows.

The initial wave from highs-to-lows, was ‘impulsive’.

Then, and a-b-c, ‘corrective’ wave (labeling not shown), to where we are now.

All of which, brings us to ‘positioning’

Positions

As noted, short this sector as trade DAL-25-02; stop, just above Thursday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Markets

Discretionary exit on SOXX short, SOXX-25-04, at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Maintaining Wal-Mart short, WMT-25-04, with stop lowered to 96.78 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Livermore’s Laws … Positioning

July 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Establish Full Position(s) … Early

As the ‘About‘ page says, we’re emulating trading and analysis techniques, used by Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb.

Livermore’s listed first, as he figured out through many gains and losses, he’s primarily, a strategist:

‘What’s likely to happen, in a big way?’

Wyckoff is next as the tactician, with Loeb as the focus; meaning, concentrate positions, do not ‘diversify’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incremental Entries

The potential for reversal in the semiconductor index, started with this post.

From that post, the sidebar shows an initial short, labeled as: SOXX-25-01.

Moving on to this post, Nvidia was used as a proxy for the SOXX; once again, we see SOXX-25-01, in the sidebar.

The short is active, size increased by 50%, last Thursday.

Today, price action posts a new daily low, dips below resistance in 240 – 242, area, increasing probability it’s an up-thrust (reversal).

SOXX-25-01, size increased again by 30%, and we’re done.

The amount of capital planned for the position has been fully allocated.

Set The Stop, & ‘Walk’

From this point, anything can happen.

With that said, the obvious stop location for the current position, is just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a combined entry of 242.26, getting stopped out just above 242.13, would be at break-even.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s … Timed Top

July 4, 2025 By in GDXJ, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01 2 Comments

Fibonacci, still In-Effect?

Insight on Nvidia’s adherence to Fibonacci, began over a year ago, with this post.

That update, identified the (interim) reversal correctly.

Since then, price action continued and has now, this (shortened) week, posted another potential correlation.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The week closed with a high, 55-weeks from the ‘Week 89’ high, making a total of Fibonacci 144 (-1) weeks, from the October 2022, lows.

One might ask, can it be this precise?

To answer that question, we’ll go back to this analysis.

The next (trading) day, Junior Miners GDXJ, printed a new daily high (55-Days), then reversed lower for 24-weeks, a total decline over 50%.

So, it turns out, it can be that precise if market conditions are in favor, and nobody’s looking (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, (false) Breakout?

July 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Edge-of-the-Lake

At the end of the session, yesterday, a short was opened in the SOXX, as trade, SOXX-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see below, price action finally penetrated long-standing resistance around 240 – 243, and then (so far), has stopped dead.

In the overnight session, SOXX churned higher to post 243.63, and is hovering around that level, in the pre-market.

There’s no doubt we’re at ‘the edge of the lake’, as David Weis, used to say.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, big cap Nvidia, is in Spring-to-Up-Thrust condition (chart not shown), with it posting new all-time-highs.

If NVDA confirms an up-thrust and heads lower, it’s likely to take the rest of the (SOXX) market down as well.

Market Positions

Positioned short the SOXX, with a stop yet to be determined; somewhere around the overnight high of 243.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, stop on GDX short, DUST-25-05 is being moved up to the vicinity of yesterday’s low, 23.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Stop, Drop, And Roll

April 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Federal Reserve, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Then, There’s Carvana

The SOXX, hit resistance, stopped, dropped, and could be rolling over for more downside … or not.

Maybe there’s something else developing.

Something like a set-up to penetrate resistance, creating a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The magenta dashed line is the 38.2%, retrace for the entire downside move; from the top on July 11th, 2024, to the lows on April 7th.

Note the potential Fibonacci time correlation, just before the Fed announcement on May 7th.

As with Carvana (CVNA), we’re nearing a potential inflection.

Also note, Carvana has dropped from the current resistance area (around 240) making that level the more probable area for an up-thrust, rather than yesterday’s 310-location (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Markets Implode !

April 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GLL, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-05, Livermore, Positions, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Is This It?

Those on this site daily, knew something was about to happen in a big way.

It was just, when.

Now, markets are volatile if not imploding.

Nearly all sectors reversing at once.

As of this post (10:55 a.m., EST), some of those are attempting to recover (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) with others down hard (not advice, not a recommendation).

There were plenty of clues:

Massive volume increase in GLL, strange activity in biotech, then resignation at the FDA, failure of NVDA to get back to a 50% retrace, the list goes on.

As mentioned yesterday, one sector that’s continuing lower is biotech, XBI.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There may be several trading channels in effect. Only the most aggressive (so far) is shown.

Note the locations of short positioning via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, the initial LABD short, entered on March 25th, is up over +40%.

Going Forward

So, what happens now?

For this trade, Livermore said it best (paraphrasing):

Position on the right side of the market (the correct direction), then wait.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Good, Bad, & Ugly

March 29, 2025 By in Airlines, DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Three Amigos

The Good: Only the Senior Miners, GDX, have managed to claw their way past the highs set nearly five years ago in August of 2020.

The Bad: Junior Miners GDXJ, remain below that August ’20, level.

The Ugly: Silver Miners SILJ, are the worst, having their peak a bit later in February of 2021; they remain over -35%, below their highs.

The Market Rolls Over

Yesterday, Friday, was a down day for the Dow, S&P, The Qs, Transports, Airlines, Semis, nearly everyone.

For some of these indices, their all-time highs were posted months, if not years ago.

There may be some (bidding) ‘defensive’ action with gold (GLD) continuing higher; as said in earlier posts, the rest of the monetary metals are far below their highs.

Let’s look at the weakest; the silver miners, as they are likely going to be the ones most affected by an economic decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Miners, SILJ, Daily

We’re at an interesting spot.

Friday was a down day that pushed below existing support, shown in zoom area.

We have simultaneous action.

Once resistance was penetrated on March 18th, it could not hold. After eight trading days, on Friday, it posted lower on heavy volume.

However, we can see that SILJ, is now in (a minor) Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. So, the question is, what happens next?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Target

March 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Then, The Fed

There are four more trading days left to compete the bar on the 8-Day, chart of Nvidia, below.

What are the chances it continues on higher into resistance?

If it does, it’s the 50% retrace of the entire move from highs on January 7th, to the lows of March 11th.

Then, The Fed

We have a Fed meeting this coming week, 18th and 19th.

Could any announcement be used as an ‘excuse’ to propel the market higher … straight into resistance?

Nvidia Fibonacci 8-Day

Who uses an 8-Day chart?

Not anybody I know 🙂

If Nvidia continues to rally, one would expect the SOXX, to move higher as well … potentially creating yet another short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, Ed Dowd

Here’s a link to a recent interview. At time stamp 37:48, he spills the beans on The Fed.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Support The SOXX, or Not

February 28, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-09, SOXX, Wyckoff

Holding Below Support

Holding on for its life, just below support.

That’s the current condition (as of 12:23 p.m., EST) of the SOXX.

When we look at the chart, penetration of a three-month support area is clear.

By definition, when support is penetrated, it puts the market in Wyckoff Spring condition; there will (typically) be some kind of attempt to rally.

That’s where we are now.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Note the black dashed trendline.

Research done on bubbles past, link here postulated at the break, the multi-year down leg begins (not advice, not a recommendation).

After the SOXX broke the trendline, it spent an incredible 10-weeks testing that break before reversing lower.

Positioning

From a price action standpoint, there’s nothing (yet) that says to exit a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stated above, SOXX is technically in ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

With that in mind, the stop for SOXS-25-09, has or will be moved up to the session low; currently at SOXS 22.31 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Update: 1:39 p.m., EST: Price action expected to continue unabated (downward) after the first half of the session, now showing some buoyancy: Discretionary exit of SOXS-25-09, profit +14.2%

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

All Eyes on Nvidia

February 26, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Rally Into Earnings, (maybe) Good For Shorts

Yesterday’s post said to “expect a test of … support.”

That’s what we got.

Price action sliced through support levels for Nvidia and then rallied into the close.

This morning’s action continued that rally.

Short position SOXS-25-08, was exited early in the session (when SOXX, daily high exceeded yesterday’s high) with profit at +19.4% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Today, is Fibonacci ‘Day 34’, from the all-time highs.

Tomorrow, is Day 8, from the 2/18/25, pivot high.

Earnings are scheduled for release at 4:20 p.m., and conference call at 5:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279