Category Archives: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

SOXX, (false) Breakout?

July 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Edge-of-the-Lake

At the end of the session, yesterday, a short was opened in the SOXX, as trade, SOXX-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see below, price action finally penetrated long-standing resistance around 240 – 243, and then (so far), has stopped dead.

In the overnight session, SOXX churned higher to post 243.63, and is hovering around that level, in the pre-market.

There’s no doubt we’re at ‘the edge of the lake’, as David Weis, used to say.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, big cap Nvidia, is in Spring-to-Up-Thrust condition (chart not shown), with it posting new all-time-highs.

If NVDA confirms an up-thrust and heads lower, it’s likely to take the rest of the (SOXX) market down as well.

Market Positions

Positioned short the SOXX, with a stop yet to be determined; somewhere around the overnight high of 243.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, stop on GDX short, DUST-25-05 is being moved up to the vicinity of yesterday’s low, 23.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mid-Session Update

July 1, 2025 By in David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TSCO-25-01, TZA-25-03, WMT-25-03, Wyckoff

Position Summary

Watching it all, in real time. 🙂

All positions stopped out.

However, that’s not the end of the story.

Miners, GDX, have just posted a Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Short this sector via DUST as DUST-25-05, with stop at the session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tractor Supply … Tests Reversal

June 30, 2025 By in David Weis, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TSCO, Wyckoff

Once Again, The Pattern Repeats

There’s nothing exciting about Tractor Supply Co., (TSCO), except, maybe, the repeating pattern.

Looking at the chart on a close basis, we have a potential Spring-to-Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tractor Supply Co., Daily Close

At this point, it appears that volume is contracting on the upward test.

However, we’re still two-hours to go, before the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Breaks Trend … Down

June 28, 2025 By in David Weis, GLD, Gold & Silver, One Way Pockets, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Spike Lower, or Long Term?

Seven weeks ago, was this post, giving a ‘heads up’, gold (GLD), had just printed massive upward thrust energy.

A print like that, happened only once before, near the 2011, top.

From that top, GLD, traded in a range for over a year before heading into a sustained decline.

That decline lasted three years, GLD down -46%.

So, here we are. 🙂

We’ve posted massive upward thrust energy seen only once before, a potential top, sideways action for just over two-months; then, trend breaks down.

Sounds about right.

Now, all-of-a sudden, professionals may be selling (or set, to sell), link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold GLD, Daily Close

We’re going to look at GLD, a bit differently. That is, the repeating pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Human psychology does not change.

Buying on the way down.

From ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, the author had access to client accounts, analyzing their behavior over bull and bear cycles.

From his findings:

Once a stock had reached its peak and started a long decline, that’s where most of it was ‘handed out’. Sold to the public as it was moving lower … then, lower, still.

Wyckoff seconds this truth; ‘those on the wrong side of the trade, provide (most of) the fuel, for the way lower’.

Short Term, Long Term, or Not at All

As this update presented, we’ve had a potential top indication for GLD that’s only happened once before.

The last time, it was over four years before GLD, bottomed and started the next bull run.

It’s impossible to know if this time is different.

However, price action itself, will tell us the next probable direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Gap Higher (pre-market)

June 2, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-04, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-12, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Is Today, The Day?

Gold miners, higher in the pre-market (as of 8:31 a.m., EST).

Looking at Senior Miners GDX, we’re at the edge of the lake.

This is where a trend continues (higher in this case) or it’s exhausted and will post sideways or reverse.

Senior Miners GDX, Daily

Important note: Today is Fibonacci Day 13, from the ‘spring’ lows to ‘up-thrust’ high(s)

Since this site’s already short (JDST-25-12), we’ll be watching the morning action closely 🙂

Other Markets

The expectation for Boeing, BA, was to begin its reversal after the ‘test’ last Friday.

In the pre-market, that’s not happening. It has not posted a new daily high (above last Thursday’s high), but it’s not going lower either.

BA-25-04, exited with -0.67% loss (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners at 12-Year Highs!

May 31, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-12, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

‘Retail’ Says … I’m All In !

When you can buy gold bars at Costco, you know the top is, … or is nearly, … in (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a corollary, why wasn’t Costco selling gold back in 2001, when it was $271/oz.? Now, it’s all the rage.

With that, we’ll look at the miners; Juniors, GDXJ.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily Close

Where have we seen this (price action) before?

Shown in the sidebar, already short via JDST, as JDST-25-12 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Boeing: ‘Pick Me’

May 29, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-04, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

The Set-Up, is In

No matter what happens from here, Boeing has met conditions of a repeating set-up: Spring-to-Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

A ‘set-up’, does not guarantee anything.

It just means, market behavior is such, there’s a potential for correlated (i.e., directional) movement.

The last update said there was a possibly of ‘spring failure’.

It gave specific conditions for potential failure … neither of which, happened: BA, did not open lower that day and the weekly low, was not penetrated.

All of which, brings us to now.

Early this session, BA, launched into up-thrust condition as the ‘result’ of news, link here.

Forecast In Advance

It’s important to note, potential for today’s move was forecast with this update, including upside target.

That forecast had nothing to do with ‘news’, but everything to do with how markets (tend to) behave.

So, here we are. 🙂

Boeing, BA, Daily

Penetration of the target area creates an up-thrust. On the daily we have ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Not only is the daily a repeating set-up, but the weekly is as well, shown here.

Problems, A-Plenty

The problems for Boeing have not disappeared.

The CEO hinted at this, when he clarified his comments at the conference (paraphrasing):

‘Moments later, he corrected himself and said he wants to ‘get ready’ for production ramp-up, in hopes to meet (target) production levels’

One doesn’t decide to instantly ramp up production and then ‘poof’, it happens.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

(more) Pre-Market … Boeing

May 28, 2025 By in BA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

When a ‘Spring’ Fails

Price action ‘failures’ provide and edge in market positioning.

In the case of Boeing (BA), from yesterday’s post, we’re expecting continued move higher off the ‘spring’ set-up.

So far, it hasn’t happened.

Instead, BA closed lower for the day; in the pre-market today (7:28 a.m., EST), it’s trading within ticks of that close.

So, what does it mean?

If, BA opens below yesterday’s low (200.88), we have a possible spring failure in the making; especially so, if price action prints a new weekly low, below 198.75 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Boeing BA, Daily

As this post is completed, BA is trading at 201.15, just slightly above the close of yesterday.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Boeing … Pre-Market

May 27, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-02, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Exit & Set-Up

It’s never fun to wake up ‘in-the-red’ but that’s where Boeing BA-25-02 (short) was in the pre-market.

Based on the chart, with Friday’s lower close, price action had one of two choices; post lower and continue the decline or push higher from the spring set-up as shown.

Looks like we’re set-up to see if the (up-thrust) target area is met (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, the short was exited pre-market with an overall loss of 0.99%.

Boeing BA, Daily (pre-market)

Note, from the high on 5/14, to the low, last Friday, is Fibonacci 8 Days.

If the correlation remains intact, we’ll be looking for a potential target set-up, on Fibonacci Day 13.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hits The Wall

May 21, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, CVNA-25-02, CVNA-25-03, Hindenburg, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

New Daily Low

Carvana’s down – 2.53%, at 10:21 a.m., EST.

The new daily low confirms we have some kind of top; maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s also been a trendline break. A trend in-effect, for over a month.

Lastly, as we’ll see below, CVNA, has been in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position for the past five trading days.

Not only that, but we also have a repeating set-up, seen many times in the markets, detailed here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Let’s not forget the ‘unique’ fundamentals, link here.

Positioning

Those on this site for the past two weeks, have seen (in real time) several attempts to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last trade, CVNA-25-02, was stopped out early Monday, at 304.52.

Reviewing the price action, CVNA had posted a minor spring-to-up-thrust.

The prior session’s low and high were penetrated.

Once that was observed, no hesitation; re-position short (CVNA-25-03) with new stop at that day’s high 306.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s where we are now.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279