Category Archives: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Bear Market = Wealth Transfer

April 14, 2025 By in 1987, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-09, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist Tags: , , , 1 Comment

The ‘Extraction’ Process

Bear markets are not (always) prices going straight down, a la 1987.

Bear markets are ‘price destruction’; a series of ups and downs that effectively drain (whipsaw) the typical market account.

The last two weeks have seen record breaking extremes; the latest being this update, indicating the market posted the largest volume ever recorded.

Dodging Bullets

A case in point, this site’s narrow miss on having a huge gain (LABD-25-06, short biotech) being completely obliterated in last week’s largest short squeeze, ever.

It’s (almost) a ‘no-brainer’, this type of market behavior is not bullish (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, The Propaganda

If it’s not dodging bullets, it’s sifting through the propaganda, half-truths, and outright lies.

The latest of these, (could be) ‘China dumping dollars’ and other ‘collapse’ narratives.

There’s volatility for sure. That’s what bear markets are about. However, this link might help mitigate the hysteria around the ‘It’s all blowing up’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the above link, how it really works, time stamp: 17:58

So, here we are. What’s next?

Gold & Silver, Update

Even though both gold (GLD), and silver (SLV), are trading lower as of this post (12:52 p.m., EST), the Junior Miners GDXJ, posted a new daily high, thus, short JDST-25-09, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s activity does point to a new potential (developing) set-up, this time, silver miners SILJ.

Silver Miners SILJ, Daily

The set-up (spring-to-up-thrust) may develop from here, or it could diffuse into chaos.

It remains a possibility, until price action itself says, ‘no’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, ‘Testing … 1 … 2 … 3’

March 22, 2025 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Test 1 Comment

Higher Close, Lower Volume

Carvana finished up on Friday, in a test of its reversal.

We’re now at The Danger Point®

This is the location where risk on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Risk is least because if CVNA continues higher, the obvious stop location on a short is just above Thursday’s, 196.63, high.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Thursday’s volume was heavy at 8.3-mil.

Friday’s volume contracts by just over 25%. That’s not a whole lot but it still fits the definition of a ‘test’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Just like the kid sweating bullets in the cartoon, you can literally feel the ‘tension’ in the above chart.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … ‘Out of Gas’

March 21, 2025 By in Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Repeating Pattern

First biotech, now Carvana.

Yesterday’s mid-session update said Carvana’s posting a repeating pattern.

That pattern is what’s called a Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Even before, yesterday, this update said we’re expecting some kind of bounce.

Well, we got it; then, price action went on to post a potential reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s session may or may not contain a ‘test’ of that (reversal) action.

Let’s go to the chart.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on.

As the chart notes, when taking the retrace measurement from the after-hours high of 310, posted during the earnings release, yesterday’s action topped out right at the Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

We’re about twenty-minutes before the regular session; CVNA, is trading lower by 3.6-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Update & Carvana

March 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CVNA, David Weis, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Bump & Run

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

Biotech XBI, pushed all the way up in the early session to close Tuesday’s gap.

Once that was complete, it’s now reversing to the downside.

Bottom line: LABD-25-03, is being maintained at trader’s discretion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately Carvana, has just posted a repeating pattern (chart later): Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

As Fred Sanford used to say. ‘This could be the big one‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Sell The News?

March 16, 2025 By in David Weis, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-05, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Hours Away

We’re just hours away from the Sunday futures open.

Yesterday, military attacks on Houthi rebels have commenced; links here, here, and here.

Middle East conflict escalates.

The question is, will the markets see it that way?

Will it be ‘escalation’, with gold futures ever higher, or is it ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’?

If we’re looking at potential gold/silver related downside, then let’s review the miners; they’ve been in a bear market for nearly five years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close

Before getting to the right side of the chart, let’s start with the ‘Time’s Up’, arrow; a reversal and decline over 50%.

That ‘arrow’ corresponds to this post.

At this point, gold and the miners appear to be stretched with silver currently in non-confirmation.

If it was really (simple) inflation, it would be like the 1980s, with both moving in tandem.

Then & Now

With that, what has GDXJ, done in the past?

The chart itself shows us it tends to exhibit a repeating pattern of Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

We may know within hours if gold, silver, and the miners, are going to reverse or launch into some kind of extended rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Opportunity Awaits

February 17, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Michael Bordenaro, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

On The Short Side

It’s been over four years, since this post.

The Junior Miners GDXJ are still below 56.44, the weekly close.

Recall, at the time of ‘what’s wrong’, it was absolute hyperinflation breakout mania (as the links included, attest).

Now, with mass layoffs and terminations, will the ‘stacking’ public, especially the ones in D.C. and Florida begin selling everything that’s not nailed down? What about the rest of us?

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

For long-time visitors to this site, the chart almost needs no explanation (almost).

Last Friday was decisive; outside-down, on increased volume.

We’re right at support (upper blue line). There could be some upside retrace in the coming week (not advice, not a recommendation).

If so, it’s what happens during that retrace that may give us clues as to the next direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ProLogis … Stretched to Breaking?

February 16, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-06, Interest Rates, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT

Reversal and Test

The last update on ProLogis link here, said we had ‘evidence of a struggle’.

That struggle made one more attempt to move higher, posted a new daily high, then reversed.

In the process, real estate IYR, reversed as well; bonds, TLT, closed lower for the week (rates higher).

That brings us back to ProLogis.

ProLogis PLD, Daily Close

The labels correspond to the following S: Spring, U: Up-Thrust, T: Test

With this type of set-up, the expectation is for PLD, to post lower right along with real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Bull/Bear Struggle

February 12, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-06, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Pattern Repeats

Time for the ‘bag-holder’, shakedown?

One thing that can be said, big-cap Nvidia, is posting a repeating pattern:

Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

As long as NVDA, closes lower for the day, it’s at risk of downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The repeating set-up is labeled: No. 1. (spring) and No. 2. (up-thrust).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We still have the ‘break-away’ gap posted on January 27th (not labeled), creating the unknown; will this gap be filled?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

History Repeats (again)

February 10, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, FAZ, FAZ-25-01, Financial Sector, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XLF

Another (repeating) Set-Up

This time, it’s the financial sector, XLF.

Top ten components for XLF, are listed here.

For today’s session (as of 12:27 p.m., EST), all but one of the ten are trading lower.

Financial, XLF, Daily

When looking at the chart, the set-up is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

Similar to yesterday’s update with ProLogis, XLF, made two attempts to push past resistance … that so far have failed.

Today’s action has ‘ease of movement’ to the downside.

The sidebar notes and open (short) position in XLF, as FAZ-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately:

The short in IYR, via DRV, was closed early in this session as PLD, made a (very slight) new daily high, indicating possible hesitation to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)..

It may still work out but the market that’s moving to the downside now, is XLF (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Reversing Now

February 6, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

If The High (for the day) Holds

For those monitoring this site on a daily basis, it’s at the point where you know (or almost know) what’s coming next.

Over several years, the set-ups have been clearly laid out.

One in particular, the basis for most of the trades, is this: link here.

With that in mind, we have real estate, IYR.

The last update hinted that a reversal may be ‘imminent’.

Well, it’s been several weeks. So far, nothing … until today.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

The set-up (Spring-to-Up-Thrust) is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘risk’ on a short position is the high for the day.

At the time the screen shot was taken, that ‘risk’ amounted to 0.64-pts.

It’s not a contest to ‘be right’. It’s an effort to ‘minimize risk’.

Positioned short via DRV, as DRV-25-04, stop at session low, 26.25 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As this post is being created (11:27 a.m., EST) IYR, is starting the retrace some of the early session downside.

It could be a quick day-trade exit if the stop is hit; we’ll see.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279