Category Archives: TSM

Carvana’s (final) Squeeze

October 31, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, TSM Tags: , , ,

Who’s Left, To Cover?

Short interest on Carvana, has been holding at a stubborn 12% – 13%, for what seems like months.

As of this post, BigCharts reports current short-interest at 11.67%.

Maybe that’s about to change with today’s gap-higher action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana just released earnings and like the analysis of Taiwan Semi (link, here), this may be the end of the squeeze (or, the beginning of the end).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

Pre-market action’s right at the 61.8%, retrace level.

Note the magenta arrow on Force Index, middle panel.

Subsequent upward thrusts have less and less energy.

Other Markets: SOXX

We’re about twenty-minutes before the open and Semiconductors, SOXX, looks like it will confirm the downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

There may also be a downtrend line in play.

More on that later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Keeps on Slippin’

October 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Downward Pressure

Insiders have sold out; the train has left the station.

Big caps, NVDA, and TSM, appear to have reached (and reversed from) all-time highs, simultaneously but separately.

NVDA, with an Up-Thrust, TSM, with an exhaustion spike (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, anything can happen, there could be a reversal.

For now however, downward pressure appears to be increasing.

Taiwan Semi opened below yesterday’s low and Nvidia posted a new daily low within seconds after its open.

Let’s look at Nvidia and see how Fibonacci time sequences are affecting price action.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

At this juncture, we’re in Wyckoff Up-Thrust condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action posted above resistance (blue line) and retreated.

Note the ‘Week 89’, first discussed here, and here.

Then, we have yesterday’s action at both Fibonacci count 89 (minus two days) and 55 (plus one day).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX & Channel

October 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, TSM 1 Comment

Nascent Move

Is downside potential in the SOXX, just a throw of the dice or was last week’s action significant?

Taiwan Semi (TSM) posted what could be an exhaustion top.

Former leader Nvidia (NVDA), now potential laggard, only ticking up 0.13-pts, to new high before hesitating, pulling back.

Suppliers of processing equipment, the nuts-and-bolts of semiconductor production, have imploded.

It all looks significant, even from a cursory standpoint.

As kabuki theater rages on at the highs, SOXX itself, is down over -14%, from its July top.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

“What do you see?”

Is this the (hidden) channel?

Tuesday the 15th, posted down hard; then, traded in the lower half of the range for the rest of the week.

Positioning

Obviously, with all of the above, lower action is the expectation going forward.

However, if the SOXX, decides to reverse higher, exit of short position, SOXS-24-18, is likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Taiwan Semi’s Exhaustion Spike

October 18, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff 2 Comments

‘… Giving It All She’s Got, Captain’

One hundred and fourteen years ago, Wyckoff described the ‘exhaustion spike’.

‘After long upward bull market, there’s a blow-off top on heavy volume’

That may be what happened yesterday with earnings from TSM.

The sector itself, the SOXX, is far below its all-time highs.

That implies the market’s ‘thinning-out’.

Right now, as of this post (11:32 a.m., EST), SOXX is trading in sort of a no man’s land.

Action is higher for the day, but in the lower end of the sharp down move from Tuesday, the 15th.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

‘Lower Half’ action sets a bearish tone.

If we get a new daily low, that increases the probability of more downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Targeting, Taiwan Semi (TSM)

July 23, 2024 By in Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff

Once A Trend Is Broken …

According to Wyckoff principles;

‘Once an up-trend is decisively broken, the market will (typically) attempt some kind of rally to test the break’.

Looking at the daily chart of Taiwan Semi, TSM, there’s no doubt the uptrend has been broken.

Taiwan Semi, TSM, Daily

The amount of (daily) down-force exhibited on the July 17th, trend-break, was the most ever for TSM.

With such a massive down-force, we’re in uncharted territory. The test, if it comes can complete at any level.

Currently as of 1:25 p.m., EST, TSM is trading at 170.6, near the 23.6%, retrace.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The A.I. Rope … Just Broke

July 17, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX, TSM, ZeroHedge

So, It Begins

SOXX, pre-market, down a solid -3.2%.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) is the primary reason with its own trading down over -5%,.

If this really is the top of the A.I. bubble, the potential (now apparent) reversal was covered well in advance, here, here, and here.

If this is not the top and there’s more to go, the SOXX would need to retrace significantly, find support and thrust energy to mount another rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: MACD indicators are bearish divergent on both daily and weekly.

Making It Up, As We Go

Of course, the press has to make up a reason for the pre-market rout. So, for today, we have this and this.

Tomorrow is a whole ‘nother story, literally 🙂

Semiconductor SOXX, Weekly

The blue arrow notes only one other time (in history) in the SOXX, where downward thrust exceeded that of week ending, April 19th.

Otherwise, we have the usual suspects: Terminating wedge, dissipating energy, Fibonacci correlations for chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s Lonely At The Top

July 23, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The ‘AI’ Top

We’re about to find out if last Tuesday, was the top in AI, or just another interim top on the way higher.

No matter the Taiwan Semi slow-down, mainstream media’s not even considering we’re near (or past) a potential long-term reversal.

For this update, the SOXX is being used as proxy for the AI mania. The chief cook and bottle washer in this latest delusion is Nvidia (NVDA), which reached a high on Friday, July 14th.

Basic Indicators, Wyckoff & The Cat

Even without using Wyckoff analysis, basic indicators like MACD, both on daily and weekly are telling us the momentum has slowed; on the daily, it’s outright reversed to the downside.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we’ve had an up-thrust (reversal) that’s been supported by decreasing up-volume and increasing down-volume (shown on daily, below).

The cat’s out of the bag with Taiwan’s earnings release.

What we have are delays, more delays, coupled with revenue slowdowns (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, NVDA, where’s the money? Where’s that $11-Billion?

Slow, At-First?

If we’re past the top, it could be slow at first. Maybe imperceptible that a significant reversal is at hand.

If that’s the case, it might all change on August 23rd, when NVDA releases its own earnings.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

The daily chart shows we’re holding below resistance (blue line) after an apparent reversal.

The probabilities are accumulating that we’re in some kind of sustainable reversal.

Next week is likely to show us if that assessment is correct (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Stated previously, this site does not provide advice.

With that said, here’s how it looks on the company’s spreadsheet for shorting the SOXX using leveraged inverse fund SOXS.

Next week’s action is likely to either force an exit of the position or allow for the trailing stop to be increased.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AI, ‘Train-Wreck’, Leaves Station

July 20, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Edward Dowd, LABD, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TSM

Did You See The ‘Elephant’ ?

It’s hidden in plain sight.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) releases lackluster results, revenue slowdown and new building construction delays.

TSM says the delays stem from the inability to find qualified workers.

Edward Dowd provides insight on the overall reduction of employees, in this interview (Time stamp 5:10).

Bull Trap Shut, Train Leaving Station

If there ever was a ‘gotcha’ moment, this is it.

Even while the mainstream continues to tout the hype, here, here and here, the market has reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The daily chart of SOXX, has the MACD bearish divergence confirmed. Price action is now (as of 3:05 p.m., EST) well below the breakout (blue line) resistance area.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

This site does not give advice, but it can be inferred by reading the reports what actions are being executed (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, short positions in the SOXX, via leveraged inverse SOXS, were entered early during yesterday’s session at SOXS 8.54 and SOXS 8.69.

As a side note, within minutes after today’s market open, the gain in the SOXS, fully erased the -7.9% loss via LABD, noted in yesterday’s update.

The Biotech ‘Bid’

For whatever reason, probably to be revealed months or years from now, biotech, the instigator of the ‘elephant’ is not selling off into a market collapse as expected.

Instead, the effects are being played out in low-margin industries like airlines and semiconductors.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Last of The Bubble(s)

July 19, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TSM 1 Comment

‘Idol’ Worship

If Artificial Intelligence, really is the last of the bubble(s), isn’t it appropriate we culminate in a market top of the ages, with the desire (and delusion) that we can be like God.

Let’s ask ‘AI’ how to get rid of spike protein … see what it says.

We’re around mid-day; the SOXX, is raging a bull/bear battle inside the range of yesterday’s session.

Tuesday’s session was not able to post a new high or low. With that said, the Fibonacci count from the last update remains intact.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

The chart shows upside pressure (volume) is dissipating.

As of this post, the MACD (not shown) is flat, waiting to tick lower; not yet confirming the bearish divergence.

A penetration of the prior session low, SOXX 524.11, would give a classical analysis sell signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorow’s TSM Earnings

Anything can happen.

SOXX, could spike higher to the previously identified 550- 560, area.

Or, we could have an immediate ‘sell the news’ event.

Either way, it’s up to the speculator/trader to decide for himself whether to take action, or not.

Biotech Short

Separately, the biotech short via LABD, has been exited with a – 7.9%, loss. So, there’s that.

On to the next trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There’s A ‘Hole’ In The SOXX

July 18, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, TSM, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Count of The Fibonacci

While the media’s wasting no time setting up the average investor, for a ‘guaranteed skinning’ (as Dr. Elder used to say), providing an environment of constant, incessant, AI ‘get-in-now’, buy recommendations.

With that said, an ominous market sign has appeared.

As the daily chart of SOXX shows, we either have a breakout or a hole that’s about to be filled (reversed).

Semiconductor Index SOXX, Daily

In technical terms, the SOXX is in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’, reversal position (not advice, not a recommendation).

A tick lower in MACD, confirms the bearish divergence.

Then, there’s Fibonacci

Enter, The Count

When markets are in a mania, reaching insane extremes, it allows for a (more) clean print of either Fibonacci retrace levels or time correlation.

Decide for yourself if that’s the case now.

Remember, tomorrow (Wednesday) is the 19th, and one day before Taiwan (TSM) releases earnings.

That release is scheduled for the 20th before the open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279