Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The SOXX, hit resistance, stopped, dropped, and could be rolling over for more downside … or not.
Maybe there’s something else developing.
Something like a set-up to penetrate resistance, creating a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).
Semiconductors SOXX, Daily
The magenta dashed line is the 38.2%, retrace for the entire downside move; from the top on July 11th, 2024, to the lows on April 7th.
Note the potential Fibonacci time correlation, just before the Fed announcement on May 7th.
As with Carvana (CVNA), we’re nearing a potential inflection.
Also note, Carvana has dropped from the current resistance area (around 240) making that level the more probable area for an up-thrust, rather than yesterday’s 310-location (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If things don’t change soon, the wheels have come off the bond market (not advice, not a recommendation).
At this point, it’s common knowledge the (U.S. Treasury) bull market of forty-years, ended in March of 2020.
It’s been nothing but rates ratcheting higher, ever since.
Recession Reversal … Where?
However, a strange thing happened on the way to the anticipated bond reversal … typically, a long-time indicator of an impending recession.
Just weeks ago, during the market meltdown with the largest trading volume ever recorded, bonds did not respond as expected.
The Blip
During that wipe-out, bonds (TLT) blipped higher into a false breakout, a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, and have since collapsed on the largest weekly downside (thrust) energy and volume ever seen.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
From an engineering standpoint, the SOXX, has met the requirements for a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).
First: Price action posted an outside-down reversal (last Thursday), on increased volume and closed below established resistance.
Second: That reversal was then tested (on Friday) and did so, on contracting volume.
Third: MACD, divergences on Weekly and Daily timeframes; although near-term weekly has yet to tick lower but still (diverging) below the highs of this past March.
Intuitively, you can feel that something’s up. The A.I. pump-n-dump set-up may have run its course.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.