Category Archives: Up-Thrust

Livermore’s Laws … Positioning

July 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Establish Full Position(s) … Early

As the ‘About‘ page says, we’re emulating trading and analysis techniques, used by Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb.

Livermore’s listed first, as he figured out through many gains and losses, he’s primarily, a strategist:

‘What’s likely to happen, in a big way?’

Wyckoff is next as the tactician, with Loeb as the focus; meaning, concentrate positions, do not ‘diversify’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incremental Entries

The potential for reversal in the semiconductor index, started with this post.

From that post, the sidebar shows an initial short, labeled as: SOXX-25-01.

Moving on to this post, Nvidia was used as a proxy for the SOXX; once again, we see SOXX-25-01, in the sidebar.

The short is active, size increased by 50%, last Thursday.

Today, price action posts a new daily low, dips below resistance in 240 – 242, area, increasing probability it’s an up-thrust (reversal).

SOXX-25-01, size increased again by 30%, and we’re done.

The amount of capital planned for the position has been fully allocated.

Set The Stop, & ‘Walk’

From this point, anything can happen.

With that said, the obvious stop location for the current position, is just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a combined entry of 242.26, getting stopped out just above 242.13, would be at break-even.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s New (closing) High

July 5, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-06, Positions, Up-Thrust

Grinding its way, to a Set-Up

Will Carvana make it to all-time-highs, or is this, it?

During the past (shortened) week, CVNA, could not print higher, but it did close (barely) higher than June 4th, high of 345.64.

Therefore, on a close basis, we have a potential up-thrust condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last short in Carvana, CVNA-25-06, was stopped out with a 2.5%, loss.

Admittedly, it was an ‘iffy’ trade, but even so, the risk was well defined (the June 26th high).

Now, we have another potential set-up, with possibly even better time sequencing and price action position.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

From closing high, to closing high, was Fibonacci 21 Days. From low close, to high close, was Fibonacci 13 Days.

There’s even another correlation (not shown), from low close (6/16), to test low (6/26), a Fibonacci 8-Days.

Futures Markets, Back Off

Friday’s futures action may be giving us a hint of what’s to come at the open, Sunday night (tomorrow).

Carvana, CVNA, is not classified as an EXTO vehicle, so, we’ll have to wait for the Monday session to see what happens.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, (false) Breakout?

July 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Edge-of-the-Lake

At the end of the session, yesterday, a short was opened in the SOXX, as trade, SOXX-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see below, price action finally penetrated long-standing resistance around 240 – 243, and then (so far), has stopped dead.

In the overnight session, SOXX churned higher to post 243.63, and is hovering around that level, in the pre-market.

There’s no doubt we’re at ‘the edge of the lake’, as David Weis, used to say.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, big cap Nvidia, is in Spring-to-Up-Thrust condition (chart not shown), with it posting new all-time-highs.

If NVDA confirms an up-thrust and heads lower, it’s likely to take the rest of the (SOXX) market down as well.

Market Positions

Positioned short the SOXX, with a stop yet to be determined; somewhere around the overnight high of 243.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, stop on GDX short, DUST-25-05 is being moved up to the vicinity of yesterday’s low, 23.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wal-Mart’s ‘Strategic Reversal’

June 27, 2025 By in Up-Thrust, WMT, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Customers’, are (likely) ‘Disappearing’

‘Ten Million, In’ … ‘Ten Million, Out’

The ‘in’ part, happened quickly; the ‘out’ part, also happening, but may take (a lot) longer.

Either way, one gets the sense the dynamic for WMT, has changed.

Public sentiment has shifted with examples like this, and this.

Looking at price action, it’s like a slow-motion train-wreck.

Wal-Mart WMT, Weekly

At this point (this week), the Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ is being tested; so far, price action is retreating from resistance.

From a risk standpoint, the parameters are well defined.

For a short position, the stop would be this week’s high at WMT, 99.11 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont’s Breakout Fails

June 25, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-04, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, NEM, Positions, Up-Thrust

Long Awaited

Yesterday, Newmont was hanging on, trying to post higher after its failed breakout.

Today, could be the day where it continues down (not advice, not a recommendation).

With about thirty minutes before the open, NEM is trading slightly lower.

Newmont Mining, NEM, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

Note how the ‘wide high-volume bar’, has been tested. It took eight months to do it, but it happened.

Gold (GLD) is still near all-time highs, yet Newmont, is far below its all-time high; about -33%, (from April 2022).

Currently short this sector via DUST, as DUST-25-04, with stop at or near yesterday’s DUST low of 24.69 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike … Then & Now

June 19, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-04, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

‘Somebody, Always Knows …’

CrowdStrike may have reached a top, or maybe ‘the’ top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on price action, this update could be part of a series.

With the chart below, we’re going to start first with ‘then’, and also first, with some background on the cyber ‘glitch’.

Background

The software crash of July 19th, 2024, was the result of an update, not external cyber-attack, link here.

Damage as result of lost revenue (for subscribers), was in the $Billions … with a ‘B’. 🙂

The effects of that loss are still reverberating, evidenced by CrowdStrike’s earnings, links here, here, and last year, here.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily

As noted (on the chart), there was clear evidence something was wrong, well before the ‘glitch’.

The most recent earnings release saw a sharp drop, -8.9%, at the lows; volume doubled from the prior session.

Then, nine trading days later, CRWD, inches to a new all-time high.

Yesterday’s action was down with a potential ‘change of character’.

Currently short: CRWD-25-04, with a stop near the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Boeing: ‘Pick Me’

May 29, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-04, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

The Set-Up, is In

No matter what happens from here, Boeing has met conditions of a repeating set-up: Spring-to-Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

A ‘set-up’, does not guarantee anything.

It just means, market behavior is such, there’s a potential for correlated (i.e., directional) movement.

The last update said there was a possibly of ‘spring failure’.

It gave specific conditions for potential failure … neither of which, happened: BA, did not open lower that day and the weekly low, was not penetrated.

All of which, brings us to now.

Early this session, BA, launched into up-thrust condition as the ‘result’ of news, link here.

Forecast In Advance

It’s important to note, potential for today’s move was forecast with this update, including upside target.

That forecast had nothing to do with ‘news’, but everything to do with how markets (tend to) behave.

So, here we are. 🙂

Boeing, BA, Daily

Penetration of the target area creates an up-thrust. On the daily we have ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Not only is the daily a repeating set-up, but the weekly is as well, shown here.

Problems, A-Plenty

The problems for Boeing have not disappeared.

The CEO hinted at this, when he clarified his comments at the conference (paraphrasing):

‘Moments later, he corrected himself and said he wants to ‘get ready’ for production ramp-up, in hopes to meet (target) production levels’

One doesn’t decide to instantly ramp up production and then ‘poof’, it happens.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Boeing … Pre-Market

May 27, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-02, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Exit & Set-Up

It’s never fun to wake up ‘in-the-red’ but that’s where Boeing BA-25-02 (short) was in the pre-market.

Based on the chart, with Friday’s lower close, price action had one of two choices; post lower and continue the decline or push higher from the spring set-up as shown.

Looks like we’re set-up to see if the (up-thrust) target area is met (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, the short was exited pre-market with an overall loss of 0.99%.

Boeing BA, Daily (pre-market)

Note, from the high on 5/14, to the low, last Friday, is Fibonacci 8 Days.

If the correlation remains intact, we’ll be looking for a potential target set-up, on Fibonacci Day 13.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hits The Wall

May 21, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, CVNA-25-02, CVNA-25-03, Hindenburg, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

New Daily Low

Carvana’s down – 2.53%, at 10:21 a.m., EST.

The new daily low confirms we have some kind of top; maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s also been a trendline break. A trend in-effect, for over a month.

Lastly, as we’ll see below, CVNA, has been in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position for the past five trading days.

Not only that, but we also have a repeating set-up, seen many times in the markets, detailed here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Let’s not forget the ‘unique’ fundamentals, link here.

Positioning

Those on this site for the past two weeks, have seen (in real time) several attempts to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last trade, CVNA-25-02, was stopped out early Monday, at 304.52.

Reviewing the price action, CVNA had posted a minor spring-to-up-thrust.

The prior session’s low and high were penetrated.

Once that was observed, no hesitation; re-position short (CVNA-25-03) with new stop at that day’s high 306.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s where we are now.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Exxon Reversal

May 15, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOM, XOM-25-01, XOP

Picture Perfect

Exxon’s is one of the large-caps in the Oil & Gas sector ETF, XOP.

The potential for (downside) reversal in XOP, first presented here.

As part of the prep work to position short, the question was whether to short XOP, or one of the big caps.

As you can be seen, since XOM-25-01, is in the sidebar, we’ve gone short Exxon during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, there was a small gap lower yesterday, presenting the risk that it would be filled before action continued lower.

That might still happen.

However, with XOM down 1.83 pts., in the pre-market (as of 9:12 a.m., EST), upside probabilities have lessened.

Exxon XOM, Daily

We have what appears to be, a picture-perfect Wyckoff up-thrust, and reversal.

If yesterday’s gap-lower open is not filled, then it’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, indicating (probability for) much lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279