Category Archives: Up-Thrust

Biotech’s ‘Algorithmic’ Grind

July 30, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Richie Naso, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Day by Day, Inching Higher

It’s been over two months, since this post.

As the chart shows, biotech XBI, has made it all the way back, to the (blue line) resistance area.

However, it has not pushed above that area to create an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

Richie Naso, on Algorithms

Mr. Naso gives us a brief (technical) three-minute detail on why we should expect XBI, to penetrate the resistance area, link here.

He’s describing false moves (Wyckoff springs and up-thrusts) that trap the inexperienced and unsuspecting; it’s what markets do.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Notice the ‘choppy’ action.

It’s as if XBI, is looking for some kind of resolution, like maybe, a false breakout.

There’s no guarantee we’ll get above resistance. If it happens, there’s no guarantee it’s a false breakout.

However, as Naso says, the ‘probability’ of a false breakout, is (in his words) ‘above 80%’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financials … Test & Low

July 29, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, Up-Thrust, XLF, XLF-25-04

Reducing The Risk

In a quiet, almost imperceptible move, financial sector, XLF has topped, reversed, now printed a new daily low.

Yesterday’s update said there might be higher action into the day’s close.

It looks like that ‘higher’ action, was today.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Daily

The zoom area shows there’s no ‘reversal’ bar like we see in trading textbooks.

The (short) entry signal was: Breakout to all-time highs, then, next day printing a new daily low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, today, we have another daily low.

Positioning

An initial (small size) short was opened late yesterday, XLF-25-04. As price action rose into its test early this session, the short was increased (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financial Sector, XLF, Highs

July 28, 2025 By in BAC-25-04, CRWD-25-09, CVNA-25-08, Financial Sector, Positions, SOXX-25-08, Up-Thrust, XLF 1 Comment

Then, A New Daily Low

On Friday, financial sector XLF, posted all-time-highs.

Then, today in the late session, XLF, just posted a new daily low.

We’re at the extreme, The Danger Point®, where the risk of being wrong (on a short), is least (not advice not a recommendation).

There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest the market indices are stretched. The latest installment is here.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Daily

The XLF, is in up-thrust condition.

Posting a new daily low provides the risk on a short trade; yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

That new daily low, puts XLF in a minor spring position; there’s a probability of some upside going into the close.

If so, that further narrows the risk on a short.

Positioning

All other positions have been closed except, SOXX-25-08.

Depending on price action, the plan is short XLF, if it rises into the close (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike’s ‘Outside-Down’

July 26, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-09, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute

Is Time Running Out?

The last update on CrowdStrike, said this:

“The coming week may see an attempt to rally. If so and depending on price action, the risk on a short position may be reduced.”

That’s what happened; CrowdStrike rallied, then reversed again.

It also turns out, that rally may have been a test of the upper wedge boundary (shown below).

CrowdStrike CRWD, Weekly

As stated by Wyckoff, typical market behavior for patterns or trend breaks, is for some kind of test.

Last week, specifically, Monday the 21st, may have been that test.

Positioned short as trade CRWD-25-09, with stop at the week’s high of 490.04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Top & Reversal

July 25, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

‘Evidence of A Struggle’

Yesterday’s Carvana breakdown, was ‘Day 13’, of a week’s long struggle at recent highs.

We’re about thirty minutes before the open; CVNA, is up in the pre-market, set to test the breakdown.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence, the car market has (already) imploded. The latest installment is here.

‘Delinquencies at the highest, ever’

From a price action standpoint, anything can happen.

CVNA, could just blip higher at the open and reverse.

It could spend the whole day at the test level.

It could blow through to new daily highs … literally, anything.

Risk Defined

From a risk standpoint on a short, it’s well defined; yesterday’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note that CVNA, earnings are set for next week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financial Sector XLF … Set-Up

July 22, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XLF

In The Pattern

Depending on price action, we’ll get into the long-term view of Finacial Sector XLF, later.

For now, on the hourly timeframe, we’ve seen it before: Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

With about forty minutes before the open, it looks as if XLF, will come back up to resistance for a test.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Hourly

Spring and Up-Thrust, are labeled ‘S’ and ‘U’ respectively.

In other markets, the SOXX posted lower overnight; it’s trying its best to rally pre-market, into a higher open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX Top

July 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Last High?

Is the SOXX, calling us to say, ‘this is it?’

Of course, that’s unknown until it’s all over.

What we do know, price action posted a new high as outlined in the last update, link here.

At this point (11:50 a.m., EST), we’ve retreated from that high and are congesting at lower levels. So far, so good, for a short (not advice, not a recommendation).

We also know, shown on the weekly chart, we’re at Fibonacci Week 55, from the all-time highs.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

The SOXX penetrated highs of July 15th, as forecast.

We’re in Up-Thrust position after having completed a potential spring-to-up-thrust, set-up.

Positioned short, SOXX-25-07, with a very tight stop at (or to be) the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, One More High?

July 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 3 Comments

At The Extreme

If the SOXX, continues to pressure the resistance area noted below, there’s a possibility for another new high (not advice, not a recommendation).

As yesterday’s post said, the objective is (for trading actions) to be directed by the market itself.

At this point, the SOXX is not going down, but not materially up, either.

However, we do have a minor spring set-up on the hourly shown below, suggesting the probability for another high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Short position, SOXX-25-05, exited and on the sidelines (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

BAC … Fits The ‘Pattern’

July 17, 2025 By in BAC, BAC-25-02, Dr. Elder, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Dr. Elder … ‘Actions Should Be Automatic’

As implied by Dr. Alexander Elder, years ago, when a trading professional sees a particular set-up, the ‘actions should be (somewhat) automatic’.

Looking at the set-up of Bank of America (BAC), what’s the trading action?

We have the repeating pattern of spring-to-up-thrust, labeled as ‘S‘, and ‘U‘.

Price action retreated from the top (blue line) resistance area, and has now come up for a test.

Bank of America BAC, Weekly

Coming back up for a test, reduces risk.

Positioned short this equity, as BAC-25-02, with initial stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

First Semis, … Now, Biotech

July 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI

The Next Set-Up

With the SOXX, reversal apparently at hand, (SOXX-25-05, active), we can continue to the next potential set-up.

As a reminder, this site’s focused on ‘strategy’ first; what’s likely to happen in a big way. Then, tactics, and after that, focus.

Moving on, we have this post from nearly two months ago; forecasting potential price action for biotech, XBI.

Clicking on the link above, reviewing the chart, let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

We’re close to the target and potential stops.

Pushing above resistance, does not guarantee a reversal.

It only means there’s likely to be instability; reading that price action, if/when it happens, will help determine the next likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279