Fibonacci Fingerprint

Senior Miners GDX

With mixed signals, confusion in the economy and markets, one has to wonder if anybody’s noticed the Fibonacci sequence in Senior Miners, GDX?

As soon as such things get ‘figured out’, time correlations diffuse and evaporate; just long enough to throw off attention and re-emerge at some distant date.

However, as yesterday’s update inferred, along with a compelling trading channel, it begs the question; is this juggernaut so big that even if it’s ‘discovered’, it won’t make a difference?

Of course, the market itself is the final arbiter.

However, the coming week may prove to be interesting. If the time correlation remains intact, expectations (shown below) are for GDX to pivot lower early in the week.

Senior Miners: GDX

We’ll start with the un-market daily chart of GDX and then invert (to approximate DUST) for the subsequent analysis.

Now, inverted

The first Fibonacci sequence, ‘Day 1 – Day 34’, defines the channel width (shown in this update) and the subsequent retrace to the December 15th, apex/reversal; Day 55.

The next chart shows that embedded within the sequence above, is another sequence; from the November 16th low, (inverted chart) to the same December 15th, top.

Putting both together, we have the following.

However, that’s not all.

The time to retrace from December 15th to Friday’s close is/was 12-days … just one day short of a Fibonacci 13.

Is the market going to ‘blip’ this Monday, print a new low (on the inverted) just to make it absolutely perfect or is the whole set-up going to fall apart?

Either one can happen.

However, the most likely outcome at this point, is the market pivots straightaway or hesitates for several days; just long enough for both sides (bulls/bears) to start scratching their heads.

Summary

We’re still short this sector, identified as trade number DUST-21-01, (not advice not a recommendation) but the actual position size has been reduced.

‘Reduced’ is not the same as ‘closed’.

The reduction in size, which was about 8.8%, of the total position, was entirely the result of maintaining margin requirements.

If the trade falls apart, obviously the correct action would be to close.

However, if GDX pivots to the downside (as expected), there may be a window of time allowing position size to be increased back to the original or more if the market allows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold (GLD): Testing The Up-Thrust

Next up, scheduled for tomorrow and depending on price action, we’ll discuss how the upward retrace in GLD, may actually be a test of the mid-November up-thrust.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Time Tunnel … GDX

Rendezvous With The Future?

Are gold and the miners destined to collapse?

Are the miners on some choreographed mission to take out themselves, the gold bulls, and ‘stackers’ in one fell swoop?

At the bottom (if there is a bottom) will Newmont, be the sole-survivor or will some other mining entity emerge as the next leader?

Year 2022: When It All Hits

As Bjorn Bull-Hansen has suggested in this post, we’re potentially just months (maybe weeks) away from a mass-awakening.

That is, there’s no, or very little food.

What food there is, seems to get mysteriously wiped-out by some never-before-seen weather event.

It turns out that precious metals and the grains, i.e., wheat, soybean, and corn are at this juncture, inversely correlated.

Gold & Grains: Inverse Correlation

What kind of nonsense is this?

I thought we were supposed to be in a hyper-inflation event. I mean, the financial press is aghast about it. The YouTuber’s have jumped on and provided their own non-thinking “me too” assessment.

How can it possibly be any different?

The official narrative has been sanctioned by the press and YouTuber’s alike. It’s a consensus!!!

Let’s put it this way, if your (or my) favorite YouTuber is not being harassed, shut down or otherwise ‘cancelled’, are they really offering any useful information?

So, what gives?

How can gold, precious metals and the miners be inversely correlated with grains and/or corn?

Well, ok. Let’s take a look.

Below is an un-marked daily chart of gold proxy, GLD.

Can you pick out the ‘Derecho of 2020?

Let’s put in a big arrow showing when that crop-destroying inland hurricane (just before harvest … how convenient) showed up:

Below is a daily chart of tracking fund CORN; showing the correlation.

The markets in corn and gold never looked back.

Now we have this report from ice age farmer, just out. Trucking shipments between U.S. and Canada could be reduced by 15% or more.

As a result, food shipments are likely to be impacted starting this month.

Sustainable, Self-Implosion

If the negative correlation between gold and the grains wasn’t enough, we also have the controlled demolition of ‘sustainability‘ being put in place as well.

Tony Heller was part of the YouTube purge a few years back. He wound up being one of the first major hitters moving to NewTube.

Sporting no fewer than five science degrees … one of them being Master of Electrical Engineering from Rice University, he has systematically dismantled the propaganda and cult of climate change.

As with our second link above (repeated here) the only climate change of note, is the one being sprayed in. 🙂

So, most if not all major corporations are implementing plans, that by definition (unless reversed) will ultimately result in their own collapse.

After all, if you’re implementing plans and actions to address something that’s not there, what are you doing about any real tangible problems in the company?

Back to the topic at hand.

Senior Miners, GDX.

As stated in the first paragraphs above, GDX seems to be on some kind of time-tunnel mission.

Yesterday, it was shown how GDX is in a huge trading channel … with Friday’s price action potentially confirming the right side.

Next up, scheduled for tomorrow are specific and repeating Fibonacci time correlations between GDX inflection points and channel widths.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Chart Speaks …

Massive Trading Channel In GDX

The past week has been a frustrating one being short the gold market.

Is the current trade, DUST-21-01, in a correction or an outright reversal?

It’s in the green (not advice, not a recommendation) but seems like it’s taking forever to get moving.

Paraphrasing Dr. Elder; He says ‘when in doubt, pull out (or farther out).’

So, we’re going to do just that.

Senior Miners, GDX

The un-marked daily chart is below. The second one is the same but inverted (to approximate inverse fund DUST).

Inverted

From the blank charts, it’s not immediately obvious.

However, the chart below shows GDX in a massive trading channel.

On top of that, today (Friday) may have been contact and verification of the right-side channel line. We won’t know for sure, until next week.

There’re about nine-months of trading action which also includes the two months to create the up-thrust set-up.

Sitting Back

If you sit back and take it all in, one begins to realize the enormity of what’s going on.

The up-thrust set-up was formed in two months. The channel itself, the bigger picture is nearly a year of price action.

From the inverted chart, the spike (downward) December 15th to now, is when the market thinned-out.

That’s when based on the data, funds flowed out of the senior miners and (some of it) into the last man standing; Newmont (NEM).

The stage is set.

Summary

Trades can fail. Anything can happen. That’s a given in the markets.

However, it looks like GDX is at another critical juncture.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

And Then, There Was One …

Newmont Pushes To Extreme

When a profitable position begins to erode, the questions begin.

Is it just a correction or a full-blown reversal; how do you know?

Of course, nothing is ever known for absolute sure.

However, in the case of the current trade DUST-21-01, which is a short position on GDX (not advice not a recommendation), the market’s exhibiting what looks like terminal (reversal) behavior.

Of all the thirty-one equities in the Senior Miners GDX, only one is above its mid-November highs: Newmont Mining.

Newmont, NEM

With Newmont getting all the attention, the view is the entire market is ‘thinning-out’.

In addition, price action in Newmont tends to suggest it’s exhibiting terminal behavior.

Daily chart below.

It looks like NEM has just ‘thrown-over’ its wedge pattern. Typically, the last gasp before reversal.

Zooming-in

Summary

With markets reaching new all-time highs yet again, the gold miners are showing they’re not invited to the party.

From a Wyckoff standpoint and for bear markets, the focus is on the laggards … not the ones at the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Unless the dynamic of GDX changes, and others in the index push past their mid-November highs, this market continues to look ready for reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold: Reversal & Test

Sitting On A Wall

All that volume and every bullish attempt, couldn’t put the gold market back together again.

In what looks like short-covering, the gold market (GLD), spent most of the day attempting to recover from its fall over the past two sessions.

It didn’t make it.

The close was lower and volume increased by 29%, from the prior session.

Gold (GLD) Daily

Volume increases as price is rising for the day and yet the close is lower.

Typically, a bearish configuration.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Whacked Again !

Hit During The Early Hours

It was a nasty mess for the gold bulls during the futures, pre-market session.

As price action pushed upward past the (GCG22) 1,820 area, volume increased significantly.

Good or bad, it means something’s about to happen.

Happen, it did.

Price action was only above 1,820 for about fifteen-minutes; then eroded back into the range.

In total, GCG22, dropped 12-points in just 25-minutes, going well below the established trading range.

If we look at the un-marked daily chart of gold (GLD), it does not look like much is happening.

Gold (GLD), Daily

Marking it up, gives a better perspective.

Now, it does not look so good for the bulls.

The chart below, zooms-in

While all this is going on in the gold market, the GDX miners (below) are posting their own (potential) reversal.

It’s potential at this point as we’re about mid-session.

Trade Model Review

Trade: DUST-21-01

  1. The Set-Up: Complete
  2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’: Complete
  3. The first ‘correction’: Complete**
  4. Continuation or Failure
    1. Trend identification
    2. Potential channel(s)
  5. Exit process
    1. Scale out
    2. Full exit
  6. Post trade evaluation

** To verify the completion, we’ll need a daily reversal (today) as well as a new daily GDX low in the following session(s); not advice, not a recommendation.

Summary:

From the trade model, the ‘first correction’ may be completing during this session.

If that’s the case and gold bulls are trapped yet again, this time around, price action’s not likely to be so tenuous.

The bears may be ready to ‘slice and dice’. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Final Test ?

Newmont Edges Higher

Newmont continued to edge higher and posted a 1.09% gain for the session.

The rest of the sector, GDX barely moved at 0.10% gain.

The discrepancy suggests the market continues to thin-out; funds exit the lower caps and are funneled into the only equity that’s above its mid-November highs; NEM.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Newmont: At The Crossroads

Time To Decide

In the markets, sometimes a decision is quick. Sometimes, it takes days or longer.

Back in mid-November, it took eight days above resistance before the market decided enough gold bulls had been trapped; then headed lower.

As we’ll see below, we’re at another decision point.

Newmont (NEM) Daily Close

The un-marked chart gives the impression that Newmont’s headed higher. It even looks like there’s been a test of its breakout above the 58.00 area.

Let’s start marking-up this chart Wyckoff style to see what’s really happening.

For sure, price action has pushed above the 58.00-level.

In so doing, its gone from ‘Spring to Up-thrust’; a potentially bearish (reversal) set-up.

Adding to a bearish view, volume has declined significantly.

However, that’s not all. We’ve got some kind of trendline break with multiple tests as well.

Pulling farther out, we see that trendline has been around for some time.

Getting closer-in on that longer term chart shows the congestion of testing action.

Summary:

Newmont’s got itself into an up-thrust (potential reversal) while testing the underside trendline.

That trendline goes all the way back to late 2019.

Out of thirty-one (31) equities in the GDX, only Newmont’s at its mid-November highs.

All others are lower.

This market’s thinning-out.

Unless the dynamic changes, money is exiting the lower cap equities completely and/or, being pumped into Newmont; a classic bearish harbinger.

Obviously, this can go on for a while.

However, Newmont’s already at the crossroads; Underside test and up-thrust.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Talking Turkey

Lessons From Mr. Partridge

From Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, ‘Turkey’, aka Mr. Partridge, was much older than the rest.

The rumor in the broker’s office was that he was rich.

Even so, he was not contributing to heavy commissions (i.e. day and swing trading) as far as Livermore could tell.

The other thing was, that he never offered advice.

If a stock tip worked out, he would thank the tipster … if not, you never knew if he took a position or not.

Losing The Position & Psychological Impact

Turkey’s ‘losing the position’ remarks impacted Livermore the most. He recognized that Partridge wasn’t some old duffer; he was an astute speculator.

Losing the position: Not the same as holding a loser.

Maintaining a profitable position during a correction while at the same time, recognizing a big move could be in the works, requires (mental) strength; let the market itself say when to get in and out.

This link has Prechter’s ‘missing out’ story on big gains.

Continuing on with Turkey.

In the book, he said he ‘paid a high price for his tuition’ and does not want to incur a second fee.

Attempting to ‘play’ the market in and out then repeat, by definition, leaves one out of the big move.

It’s not the move itself; it’s the recognition that fiddling with the position and losing it, has resulted in a lost opportunity that will never come back.

The psychological damage is immense.

It’s worse than taking major loss. Watching a move take off without you when you had planned for months (or years) for the set-up, may have left no way to recover.

Which brings us to the market at hand.

Gold (GLD):

This site is not advice, and it does not make market ‘calls’.

Presented here, are posts documenting how Wyckoff analysis is being used to spot market set-ups.

Those set-ups have shown themselves over time to be potentially profitable (not advice, not a recommendation).

The weekly chart of gold (GLD) shows the up-thrust that was months in the making.

We’re going to invert the chart and so, the ‘up-thrust’ now becomes a ‘spring’.

Note:

Back in the day, when I wasted time posting on SeekingAlpha, I would get numerous complaints about ‘inverting the chart’.

They wanted it spoon-fed and did not have the mental plasticity to look at situations from the opposite perspective.

The ‘inverting the chart’ came from none other than Dr. Elder, himself … discussed in Trading For A Living or Come Into My Trading Room if memory serves.

The main interest on the ‘Alpha’ site seems to be pontificating about how sharp your pencil is; how close you can come to guess what earnings (or some other meaningless fundamental) will be at the next release.

I have not been back in years … they’re probably out there still arguing … only this time, the banter may be about which “masks” are most effective. 🙂

But I digress.

Months To ‘Spring’, Weeks To ‘Test’:

The inverted chart of GLD shows it took months for price action to penetrate support and create a spring condition.

Since then, we’ve had a move higher and now lower coming back near support.

Is this a test or a failure of the move?

It was a short week. However, it may still provide actionable data. For example, range of GLD, GDX and NEM, all narrowed. Volume contracted as well.

The inference is, thrust energy is weakening and thus weights the probabilities to a ‘test’ and not a ‘failure’.

Deflation Pivot:

Interestingly, we’re starting the see the consumer has finally reached the limit of their spending. Price are staring to edge lower as reported here and here by Economic Ninja.

Another data point, a bit esoteric, is ammunition. Pices are starting to taper off as well. Most notable is 22-LR.

A couple of months ago, 22-LR was about 0.10 per round (bullet). Looking at this site, we see the cheapest price has dropped to .080/round.

That does not look like much but it’s a 20% decline.

Summary:

Everyone has their own time frame and market approach.

Taking a cue from Turkey, referenced above, I would rather sit through a correction, incur the erosion of profit than exit and ‘click my heels’ as Prechter puts it; then watch the original position move for a huge gain without me aboard (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re likely to find out very soon if this is a major pivot lower or if somehow, gold (GLD) bulls gain control and drive prices higher.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another Gold “Blip”

More ‘Inflation’

Gold Does Nothing

Another ‘maximum inflation‘ story, another non-confirmation in gold.

If that weren’t enough, look who’s out pounding the pavement (again) on inflation.

The press itself, possibly unbeknownst to them, is helping to destroy the (monetary) inflation narrative.

Or at least, revealing we’re actually in the middle of something that’s not quite understood by us in the proletariat.

If monetary inflation really was that rampant (an opinion), gold and other precious metals would be in a screaming bull market … manipulation or not.

That hyper bull market has not and is not happening.

However, what is happening, and what continues to happen, are scenes like thisand this

Let’s move on to the charts.

Newmont (NEM) will be analyzed over the weekend. For now, we’ll use GDX, leveraged inverse fund DUST.

GDX, Inverse DUST (4-Hour)

The first two trade points are clear. The ‘set-up’ and the ‘gut check’.

Whether or not we’re completing the first correction won’t be known until price action at least makes a new daily high, above today’s DUST: 20.45.

The zoom chart below, helps show DUST, is penetrating support … now in spring position.

Obviously, stating the first correction as ‘complete’ was premature.

However, if we are going to see a continued downtrend in GDX and uptrend in DUST, the chart above looks like today’s action is a good area for pivot/reversal.

With today’s screaming 40-year inflation news (first link, above) all gold could do (as of this post) in the futures market, was a meagre 0.43% blip higher.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279