Real Estate … Showdown !

Let The Lawsuits Begin

Let’s see …

We already have lawsuits for ‘The Speck’, injury and death.

Then we have the lawsuits because the stock price went down (always happens).

Now, we’ll have lawsuits for paying too much over asking price, because my real estate agent told me to.

Couple that with grocery store shelves going empty, power outages, fake wars (with real consequences), more corporate layoffs and voila!

The court case for any of the above, might be heard before 2030 … if you’re lucky, not homeless and we’re all still alive.

Was That, The Bounce ?

Yesterday, Wednesday was supposed to be the last chance for the bulls. The release of the CPI, being touted as a potential upward ‘catalyst’ for an already oversold market.

We even had helpful advice like this, saying ‘it’s so bearish, it’s bullish’.

Buried within that article was the caveat, extreme negative sentiment contrary indicators, only work in bull markets.

We’re not only in a bear market, it’s a full-blown collapse (so far). We’re on track for vaporization; all of which leads us to the market at hand: Real estate.

Real Estate, IYR, Daily Chart

The following chart contains a Fibonacci projection tool, showing levels from 23.6% to 100%.

Lower values such as 161.8%, are currently, off the screen.

It’s obvious, the market’s ‘respecting’ these levels as it hesitates (to confirm) before continuing lower.

However, the real story is on the hourly chart below.

Yesterday’s bounce is shown as well as a trendline.

The scary part, or good part depending on one’s perspective, that trendline’s declining at approximately 99%, annualized … effectively straight-down.

E.F. Hutton, Vice Chairman, Loeb

The late Chairman of E.F. Hutton said in his book ‘The Battle For Investment Survival’:

‘Real opportunities are rare. When you find one, it must be used to its fullest extent’.

This site adheres to tenets laid out by three masters: Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb:

Strategy, Tactics, and Focus.

Shorting IYR via DRV (DRV-22-02) is our approach to what looks to be a significant opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

As long as IYR, price action continues to follow the trend lower, we’ll maintain short.

Anything can happen and the trend be violated … even at the next session about to start in 20-minutes.

However, at this juncture, probabilities for IYR, continue to point down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Weekly Wrap-Up

The Usual Suspects

It’s about two hours before the Sunday futures open and we’re about to see what happens next.

In the meantime, the links below are from the week just past or of special note for our bear-market conditions.

Like Mike Tyson says …

‘Everybody’s got a plan ’till you get hit in the face’.

The following are not in any particular order.

No. 1

The ARKK Takes On Water

It can probably be safely stated, this ARKK, was not likely built to Biblical specifications.

Maybe they used the wrong Wood. 🙂

No. 2

Hold The Narrative At All Costs

If one lives long enough, eventually you may reach the point where you’re tired of being played.

Once that happens, eyes are opened, you see the narrative clearly; that’s it’s everywhere.

Take this link for example … oh so many narratives.

Like defining ‘investor’ and ‘trader’; defining how each of those two behave in the markets.

The article surmises that investors think traders are not as smart as they because … well, investors have more letters after their names (CFA, CFP, CTA, and on … maybe even PhD … whooo).

Traders, well, they’re just circus monkeys and volatility junkies.

This narrative is beat into the collective conscious incessantly as far as can be remembered. It keeps the herd (investors, traders alike) firmly in the box.

Remember this link?

However, the great speculators back in the day, Livermore, Wyckoff, Loeb, were none of those things.

Their actions were determined on what the market was saying about itself.

Obviously, if you’re isolated, focused on what price is actually doing, not watching the news, then you’re not part of the herd.

You’re going against the (established and approved) narrative, a dangerous animal indeed.

No. 3

Bear Market Links

It’s time to brush up on bear market strategies.

Links are here, here, here, and here.

No. 4

Collapse, Baked-In

When you have stupidity like this … who needs earnings?

No. 5

Who is Shooting at Whom?

Here’s a story you won’t see on the mainstream news.

No. 6

Tulip Bulb Mania, is Over

When millions of people are starving to death, I’ll sure be glad I invested in a ‘tweet‘ … Not.

Way back in Middle School history class, I could not understand the mania.

I thought to myself … “It’s just a bunch of flowers, right?”

It would have been nice for the teacher to say:

“When you get to adulthood, you’ll be surrounded by morons”.

No. 7

Canada’s Mandates Explained

At last!!!

Here is an easy-to-follow, scientific explanation.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Last Time … is not … This Time

The Rule of Alternation

That’s it in a nutshell. What happened last time, won’t happen this time.

The market reveals its own secrets; you just have to know where to look.

An entire industry has been (purposely) built to make sure the ‘average investor’ never finds the truth of the markets.

That industry is the financial analysis industry; the one with the P/E ratios, Debt-to-Equity, and so on.

Sure, it was a tongue-in-cheek post to use the fact that Carvana had no P/E (linked here).

I’m not certain if they ever had a P/E; probably not.

However, that financial, i.e., fundamental(s) fact, did not keep the stock from going up over 4,529%, in four years.

It should be noted, the Carvana analysis was done on a Saturday (as has this one). At the very next trading session, CVNA posted lower, started its decline in earnest and never looked back.

Not saying that exact thing (timing it to the day) will happen with our next candidate real estate; as said before, part of Wyckoff analysis (a lot of it, actually) is straight-up intuition.

The good part from a computer manipulated and controlled market perspective, intuition can’t be quantified.

So, that’s your edge.

Let’s move on to ‘last time is not this time’ and see what the real estate market IYR, is telling us.

Weekly Chart, IYR

We’ve got the weekly un-marked chart of IYR, below.

The ‘alternation’ is there.

Here it is, close-up.

The first leg lower had some initial smoothness but quickly became choppy and overlapping.

Not so, now.

We’re essentially heading straight down.

Fundamentals

From a fundamental standpoint, real estate is finished. However, it’s been finished for a long time.

The fundamentals won’t and can’t tell anyone what’s likely to happen at the next trading session … or any other session.

The market itself (shown above) is saying the probabilities are for a continued decline; posting smooth long bars until some meaningful demand is encountered.

As shown on the last post, if the trading channel is in-effect, that (chart) demand is a long way down.

Positioning

Shorting IYR via DRV, has been covered in previous posts (search for DRV-22-02).

The following weekly chart, is marked up with two arrows.

Arrow No. 1

Initial short position via DRV was opened late in the day on April 28th; the day before the market broke significantly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Arrow No. 2

As the market headed lower during the week just ended, the size of the DRV position was increased by 36%.

Currently, the gain on the total position is about +22%.

At this juncture, the DRV stop is located well in the green in the unlikely event we get a sharp IYR, upward move in the coming week.

Summary

Under ‘normal’ conditions one could expect some kind of upward bounce in the days ahead.

However, as shown already with big cap leader PLD, the situation’s anything but normal.

Highlighted in earlier posts, biotech is leading the way with SPBIO, currently down – 59.8%, from its highs.

Biotech IBB, with chief cook and (globalist) bottle washer Moderna (MRNA), is down – 36.2%.

As Dan from i-Allegedly has stated time and again, we’re already in a depression.

So, buckle your seatbelt Dorothy …

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Channels Lower

Stay In The Lane

Real estate’s IYR, is trading in a channel that’s declining at around -94%, annualized.

The channel was identified and first presented, in this post.

Let’s take a look at how things are going thus far.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly Chart

The chart below, is a close-in view of current action.

The black arrows are ‘hits’ on the channel lines, providing confirmation of its existence.

From the lower-most channel line hit on the left side (the ‘demand’ side) to the first channel hit on the right side (the ‘supply’ side) is a Fibonacci 13-Weeks; adding more confirmation to the channel’s validity.

The next chart pulls out and extends the channel to show the potential of the move.

The ‘Damand’ Location identifies the point at which price action would need to decline (at this juncture) to contact significant demand if this channel is in-effect.

That is, if the channel has been identified properly. If so, it’s a long … long way down.

Summary

Currently maintaining short with trade DRV-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop location has been moved to DRV 37.80 and is most likely going to be moved higher depending on the close of the day.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Now, We See The Violence …

… Inherent In the System’

It may as well be a Monty Python skit.

The number of opinions forecasts, pontifications and gesticulations have reached levels beyond the absurd.

Everybody’s important and has some intellectual and/or philosophical missive to promulgate.

We have great levels of insight like the selected items below. As promised, these comments were taken from the article linked in the last post.

“I don’t need to pay some 78 year old to hold 1/2 my money in cash”

“What a joke. We’re heading for multi-year blow-off top”

“78 year old fund manager loses his azz … markets going nowhere but up”

“Parabolic increase to nosebleed levels and an epic explosion 3 years from now.”

Seems our idiot/lazy Boomers, Gen-X-rs, Millennials, Gen-Z-rs, and just about everybody else, is the genius in the room; except for the 78-year-old.

He’s just a buffoon.

If someone has no real skill, experience or initiative, they resort to trash-talk like we see above.

Getting the right experience is the hard part.

Having experience in the markets involves many years of education (i.e. losses).

Just for documentation’s sake, let’s take a look at two examples of what experience looks like; each in their own respective industries.

Exhibit A:

Go ahead, check out this Bubba from Amarillo, Texas.

His customers drive from neighboring states, hundreds, if not thousands of miles away to have him rebuild their transmissions.

Within the first 5-minutes of the video above, there’s probably 30-years of experience on display.

I would suspect his rebuilds go for top-dollar; rightly so.

Then, we have this:

Exhibit B:

Yesterday’s market action, and today’s, has happened before.

That is:

A sharp multi percentage point, headline grabbing spike higher (within a down market), that’s immediately reversed the very next day.

Not only that, but the reversal also signified a bear market had started in earnest.

S&P 500, SPY, Daily Chart

Let’s set the stage.

In our example, the S&P had already topped and reversed.

It spent the next seven months heading lower and then retracing upward to an eventual downside reversal.

The next leg down continued, but then a few days later, there’s a massive, headline grabbing, upward spike.

Is the bear market over?

Is this the signal to buy the dip like our ‘experts’ above think for the current situation?

The next day, price action reversed the entire gain (like it has done today).

The chart shows the result.

From a personal standpoint, a 78-year old that’s still mentally sharp enough to provide his services and is not an obvious (globalist) sell-out the likes of which are on CNBC, then I’m very keen on what he would have to say.

His message: It’s the biggest bear market of his life.

Secondly, as Dr. Elder has said, ‘Trading is an old man’s game’. A good memory is critical to creating an edge.

In our example, I remember that upward spike well.

It was a Thursday.

The next day, price action reversed hard to the downside.

It never looked back for nine months.

Summary:

Is the S&P scenario described above, where we are now?

History never repeats itself exactly.

However, one can propose with some level of confidence, if today was the kickoff to the next leg, it has potential to be the fastest, farthest down price action in market history (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Day To Remember

Was Today The Inflection Point?

There were so many comments on the ZeroHedge article (linked here) about the musings of a 78-year-old money manager (effectively saying he’s an idiot … a dolt), we’re going to use those comments for reference on a go-forward basis.

Everybody has an opinion but nobody’s actually looking at what the market is saying about itself.

That’s where the answers will be found … no matter one’s personal bias.

Looking at real estate IYR, we see that price attempted to get above the axis line shown but did not make it.

Before we go further, a correction: The last post said the stop on DRV-22-02 was located at DRV 32.71.

The stop is actually located at DRV 37.21. Numbers got swapped.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

It’s interesting to note, ProLogis (PLD), the largest cap in the sector did not close higher for the session.

If IYR, with other indices do not have a decisive follow-through (stopping out DRV-22-02, in the process) at tomorrow’s session, the Ponzi scheme’s in serious trouble.

As already stated, events may happen faster than anyone expects.

Summary

We’ll leave off with this just out from ice-age-farmer; linked here.

The collapse of the entire food supply has been building (sorry, in the planning stages) for years.

It’s intentional.

Does anyone think that ‘raising rates into weakness’ is not also intentional?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Doesn’t Wait

Moving Ahead of The Fed

Waiting, waiting, waiting … ‘gonna die, waiting.

For real estate IYR, the waiting part’s, already over.

This post back on April 27th, identified the trade set-up.

The prior all-time highs analysis for IYR, failed with an up-thrust reversal.

That told us, downside forces were in control.

Adding to that, we had the largest cap equity in the sector ProLogis (PLD), showing a massive downward thrust lower; possibly the largest one-day event, ever.

Now, there’s more.

The two charts below are in 3-Day increments. As of this morning, we’re in a new three-day period.

For three-days just ended, down-thrust energy for PLD, posted levels not seen since before February of 2005 !

Not even the wipe-out during the Financial Crisis of 2008, generated a similar 3-Day period.

What that means for PLD, at least, it’s in a territory of its own … literally off the chart.

ProLogis PLD, 3-Day

Compressing the chart to put it in perspective. The data below, goes all the way back to February 4th, of 2005.

The Fed-Man Cometh

All of that does not mean real estate can’t rebound higher after 2:00 p.m., EST (11:32 a.m. EST, as of this post).

Anything can happen.

The stop for the short position via DRV (DRV-22-02) is currently set at DRV 32.71 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

At the open, IYR was lower and has continued lower but has not posted a new daily low.

That leaves the door open to the upside if there’s enough perceived ‘relief’ from any Fed comments.

The main objective of this post is to put forth the possibility, events may happen faster than anyone expects.

If there’s any kind of rally, it’s likely to be brief.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ProLogis … ‘Push’

Shoved Off The Cliff

“Push” may not be the right word.

For ProLogis, it’s possibly the single largest downward thrust ever.

We’re using PLD, as the proxy for the real estate (IYR) sector as it’s the largest cap equity.

That’s true for now … but maybe not for long.

ProLogis PLD, Daily Chart

From the data available, it’s the largest single-day, down-thrust energy, going all the way back to May of 2016.

The daily close, shows a terminating wedge is in-effect.

So far, PLD is down about – 12.3%, from all-time highs and looks to be heading for the lower (wedge) trend-line.

PLD Behavior During a Market Rout

It’s straightforward.

Using 2008 – 2009, timeframe as the proxy, PLD was vaporized; straight down for two-months.

Hanging By A Thread

Getting in close to the action, we have the 4-Hour chart below.

It’s currently about 1:30 p.m., Eastern.

The first half of today’s session attempted to retrace the down-move. It did not even make it to the 23.6% level.

The low of that 4-Hour bar is marked … 151.85.

If the current 4-Hour bar penetrates 151.85, without moving higher, it may show PLD as ready to continue lower to the bottom wedge trendline.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Failure, Success: GLD & IYR

When A Spring Set-Up, Fails

The upside reversal (spring) set-up for gold, has failed.

When a high probability bullish scenario fails to materialize, it signals a market with potential to completely fall apart.

Nobody expects a major reversal in gold … nobody.

Yet … there it is

We’ve had the huge volume on March 8th, that looks more and more as changing of hands; from strong to weak.

Now, the apparent reversal has failed.

Anything can happen but at this juncture, the highs of March are getting farther and farther away.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

Gold could always right itself and reverse from here.

We’ll keep an eye on it but let’s move on to a trade set-up that’s working; Real Estate, IYR and leveraged inverse, DRV.

Leveraged Inverse (-3X) Real Estate, DRV

The expectation for this morning’s session, was for IYR to retrace and test Friday’s breakdown.

It’s not happening … or at least, not at this point.

Wyckoff (along with Livermore) were obsessed with ‘what is’ and not what ‘should’ be.

The ‘what is’ at this point, IYR appears to be in a swift down move with minimal upside.

Trading actions have therefore been adjusted accordingly.

The chart of inverse DRV shows two entries marked as “1” and “2” (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, the short position in IYR via DRV (DRV-22-02), has been fully established.

The stop is now moved up to the session low @ DRV 37.21

Summary

At time stamp 8:10 at this link, The Maverick shows how far behind the curve interest rates are to what’s happened with Fed actions in the past.

If they repeat past behaviors, that of moving rates higher, it’s likely to be a massive shock.

The last place to be when interest rates rise sharply, is real estate; the most illiquid asset of all.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Set To Rally

GLD, In Spring Position

It’s about an hour before the Sunday futures open and gold (GLD), is in spring position; set to move higher.

The daily chart of GLD below, shows the action for the past three years. The chart following gets closer in to identify the set-up.

Gold (GLD), Daily Chart

Closer in with the spring set-up marked.

We know that empirically, if a spring set-up is viable and in-effect, it has a tendency to go straight into an up-thrust.

The chart below locates a potential up-thrust zone should the price action launch into a spring.

If gold breaks to the upside, be prepared for another round of bull mania hysteria … all the while, the structure of the overall markets continues to fall-away.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279