Monthly Archives: August 2023

Silver’s Pivot … Debt Default?

August 12, 2023 By in Activist Post, China, Gold & Silver, Prechter, Silver Collapse, SLV, South Sea Bubble

SLV, Targeting Single Digits

Silver’s an industrial metal and that industry worldwide, is in full-blown collapse.

Maersk reports shipping trade implodes.

Warehouse vacancy space in California’s industrial sector is increasing and the consumer, may have finally spent themselves into oblivion.

Let’s throw on top, the food supply continues to contract just as forecast.

With all that, one can ask:

‘Just how’s silver going to enter into a bull market under these conditions?’

So far, since this post and this one, over two years ago, it hasn’t (not advice, not a recommendation).

A New Down Channel

Silver continues its bear market that started way back in April, of 2011.

However, early-May and late-July peaks in SLV, appear to confirm the right side of a new down channel.

Silver SLV, Monthly Candle

With successive hits on the right side, trending down, there appears to be a significant barrier to moving higher.

The next chart uses a standard Fibonacci projection tool, showing potential downside targets.

The critical area on the chart is the ‘23.6%’ projection to the SLV 19-area.

If price action retraces to this level and then starts to change character, it’s a possible bullish indication.

If not, and we push lower, SLV then continues on with its decade-long decline.

Sovereign Default … Waiting

There’s a lot of world-wide debt built up in the system.

China appears ready to collapse into a real estate depression … probably co-incident with our own.

Couple that with record level stock valuations, record margin borrowing and mass psychosis, not seen since at least South Sea Bubble of 1720.

Could it be, among many trigger-events, we get a sovereign debt crisis (assets dumped to pay debt) that send both gold and silver to much lower levels?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘It’s Just a Flesh Wound’

August 11, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Van Tharp, Wyckoff 2 Comments

So, Now It Starts

It’s like the knight in Monty Python.

We have the usual suspects being rolled out to let us know, there’s nothing to worry about.

Links here, here and here.

This one, is especially ripe.

Watch until the end (if you can stomach it) where the host asks in exasperation, after a 200% gain in NVDA, ‘is there really more upside?’

At this point (as of 11:05 a.m., EST), the answer is no.

Forces Of Thier Own

All the way back in 1902, Wyckoff discovered after studying the tape (the Ticker):

‘Forces were at work, moving prices, that had no connection to real values.’

That, ladies and gentlemen, is all you need to know.

Fundamentals are just a well-orchestrated ruse to keep the public thinking, if their pencil’s sharper than the next guy’s (think FactSet), they’ll have the market figured out.

Wyckoff ‘Nails It’

So, he we are.

Using Wyckoff analysis (reading the tape) the probability for the current reversal, was identified within a day.

The subsequent short position (via SOXS) was stopped out yesterday, almost lost completely, but for the re-entry @ SOXS 9.70 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, we’re a full point higher at 10.70, an 11%, gain in just hours … not bad.

With that said, we’ll shift gears a bit and go straight to the leveraged inverse fund SOXS, but use a 3-Day chart.

Semiconductors Leveraged Inverse SOXS, 3-Day

The 3-Day, is being used as the market itself has defined (for now) it shows price action characteristics more clearly.

Distance between the entry and the stop is 0.28-pts.

As a position size example:

Risking $1,000 on the trade would result in a size of 3,571-shares of SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

For more information on sizing, see Van Tharp, link here.

Note: There’s a big price difference (over 450%) between the Wycoff text and the Van Tharp text … just sayin’.

Next Steps

At this point, there’s not much to do on this trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Keep in mind we’re at an historic bubble extreme, the likes of which has not been seen since Sir Issac Newton lost his fortune over 300 years ago.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Right’ Trade Entry

August 10, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 2 Comments

Professional vs. Amateur

Quickly: An update (as of 11:05 a.m., EST) on the short position in the SOXX.

Early session had an exit at the Hard Stop SOXS 9.46, as planned.

Then, price action as it sometimes does, began to exhibit behavior akin to a wash-out.

The short via SOXS, was re-established SOXS 9.70, with a new Hard Stop @ the session low of 9.42 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Perfect vs. Professional

Years ago, Dr. Elder talked about how the professional may try several times to get the entry he wants.

The amateur will only try once. If he gets stopped out, it’s as if a parent (the market) is giving him a whack for being wrong.

It’s a difficult psychological barrier to overcome but you’re witnessing it in real time 🙂

Charts to follow in a later update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Stupid ‘AI’ Short-Sellers

August 9, 2023 By in Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

Everybody Knows, AI’s The Way To Go

As if on cue, we have this piece of propaganda out from the mainstream.

‘AI short sellers lose big‘

Of course, there’s some truth … that in-total for the year, short positions have not been continuously profitable.

Contrary Indicator

The article represents another (potential) contrary indicator; short sellers (those that are left) may be about to ride the wave down (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the AI mania collapses, we’ll have the same set of clowns demanding short-selling be banned. 🙂

So, let’s see what our favorite AI chief cook and bottle washer’s doing in today’s session (as of 11:30, a.m., EST).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Candle

Ruh-Roh Scooby.

The daily chart has a terminating wedge that’s now breaking to the downside.

The magenta arrow with the ‘Note’ indicates, the current reversal was identified to the day; link here.

The dangerous part is, if the SOXX follows the ‘rules’ laid out in this link, it’s likely to be a swift and merciless decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

With no obligation to do so, here is how I have addressed the SOXX, set-up thus far (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: SOXS, is a ‘leveraged inverse’ fund for the SOXX

August 4th had two entries same-day, as noted.

This series is the fifth trade campaign in the SOXS for the year (SOXS-23-05).

Hard Stop is today’s session low of 9.46 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, with the SOXS currently at 9.97, all positions are well in the green.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will SOXX, Follow The Rules?

August 7, 2023 By in Positions, Prechter, SOXS, SOXX, The Maverick of Wall Street 2 Comments

In A Knife Fight? … No Rules !

What’s happening in the markets is important but so is what’s not happening.

The SOXX, as of 1:15 p.m., EST has not made a new daily high.

Price action’s hovering in a tight range and looks to be coiling for a directional move.

If the breakout is to the downside as anticipated, here is where the ‘rules’ come in.

The ‘Rule’ of Alternation

Originally discussed by Prechter years ago, as an observation, the rule is basically described as:

‘The market will alternate in wave structure from complex to simple or from simple to complex.’

When we look at the SOXX, the implication is, we may be due for ‘simple’ wave structure (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly Candle

The weekly chart shows the potential.

The first leg down was complex, overlapping price action.

If there’s a break to the downside, the ‘rule’ says to expect price action to alternate from a prior complex structure, to simple (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Maverick of Wall Street

One recent example of such a move can be found at this link, time stamp 11:20.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The MAERSK ‘Message’

August 5, 2023 By in GLD, NVDA, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

‘He’s Dead, Jim’

What’s the MAERSK message?

The economy has collapsed.

He’s Dead, Jim

But wait! We’ve already written the script on what happens next:

Buy the dip, soft landing, no collapse until after the ‘elections’, stocks to soar, bull market just starting.

The Propaganda, Bot

A Bull Market Is Coming

Morgan Stanley thinks it’s a buying opportunity

Have Patience, Intel Investors!

Is this the crash-proof economy?

Not Time to Worry

The AI, Bot

Meanwhile, the SOXX and its loyal henchman, the AI bot, may have just ‘changed hands’.

Well, actually leveraged inverse SOXS, could be changing hands, shown below on the weekly chart.

Semiconductors Leveraged Inverse SOXS, Weekly

The massive volume in SOXS, over 369-million shares for the week represents (at the closing price) over $3.4-bln.

That may be the inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a reminder, here’s another example of ‘changing of hands’, link here. Since then, GLD has not topped that level.

Three-Hundred, Three Years (33)

Not since the South Sea Bubble of 1720, has there been an environment such as this.

Reference time stamp 11:10, in the link.

NVDA Earnings, Tick-Tock, Closer

One has to wonder, how NVDA, is going to ‘spin’ its upcoming earnings release and how the market will react.

Will it be, ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’, or just good ‘ol fashioned ‘sell’. Maybe it will be ‘buy, then sell’. 🙂

Who knows but it looks like the rest of the market’s not waiting around to find out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tales of The SOXX Top

August 2, 2023 By in 1987, Bonds, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Prechter, SOXS, SOXX, TLT, Wyckoff 4 Comments

Was It August 1st?

Was yesterday, the day?

The day the SOXX, closed higher but failed to print a new high.

It’s now early in the session (9:55 a.m., EST) and we have a new daily low.

There have been sell signals before but this one has a different ‘feel’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, bonds (TLT) gapped open lower and broke below support; rates are rising … again.

The 1987 Set-Up

Those old enough, remember the set-up. Rates up (bonds down) and market rising to all-time highs at the same time.

A chart of the ’87 crash is here. Note, the high was in August, that year.

Now, a video from Robert Prechter, about the current historic extremes.

‘Not since the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s’

Couple all of that with bonds (TLT) breaking down and we could have that ‘inflection point’, saying we’ve reached the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Mania Goes ‘Manic’

Going back to this post, it said to expect the AI proaganda to increase as we reach the top and reverse down.

If yesterday was that day, then we’ve got more articles coming about the downside being a ‘buying opportunity’.

It’s been the same throughout history

From a positioning standpoint and Wyckoff analysis perspective, under such conditions, one is to pick the weakest market to short and not the strongest (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ, Bear Market

The last update showed how positions can be de-risked.

There’s always uncertainty but working long enough in the markets and eventually an understanding is formed on how the game is played.

Fake, fabricated or ‘serendipitous’ news articles getting the public on the wrong side, are just part of the game.

In the early session, the GDXJ, is continuing its move lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279