Monthly Archives: June 2024

Biotech … Hits Target

June 5, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, SOXX, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XBI

Meanwhile, On The Other Side …

While the SOXX fights it out between bulls and bears, biotech XBI, has quietly penetrated resistance … and stopped.

Price action’s currently hovering above resistance in a narrow range.

The prior update showed the likely outcome for a spring-to-up-thrust target.

It’s arguable that we’re here now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI Daily

The upside penetration is not all that convincing.

That could be good or bad depending on one’s viewpoint.

Is there no more energy left or is the XBI just hesitating before moving higher?

If we pull back to the longer, weekly timeframe and recall, all of this action may be just a ‘test’ of a larger (timeframe) up-thrust.

That marginal energy would correlate with limited upside during a potential breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Bump & Run

June 5, 2024 By in Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX 1 Comment

Exit Or Not?

Trader Discretion.

SOXX hit the stop level (just barely) listed in this post.

We’ve all heard the stories of getting stopped out just as the market took off.

Is that what’s happening now?

From a personal standpoint, I am maintaining the SOXX short (via SOXS), but will have to monitor the action throughout the day.

If there’s no significant retrace lower, or we post another daily high (low on the SOXS) the trade is closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Update: 10:35 a.m., EST

Trade is exited for now. Watching closely to see if gap is closed or intraday reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Nears Set-Up Target

June 4, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XBI 3 Comments

The Pattern (About) To Repeat

Of course, there’s no guarantee, biotech is going to repeat a repeating pattern; ‘spring-to-up-thrust’, but it looks probable.

We’ll start first, with the unmarked chart of biotech XBI.

Looking at the past month or so of trading activity, the eye should be drawn immediately to the potential.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it’s a little vague, the second chart shows the detail.

Now, for the mark-up

Not included on the charts, is MACD.

If price action gets to the up-thrust (target) area and stalls, daily MACD could post a bearish divergence.

Let’s not forget, this congestion action continues to build a downside count when considering Point & Figure.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Stops … How & When

June 3, 2024 By in David Weis, Dr. Elder, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX 1 Comment

The SOXX Example

‘Set the stop and walk away’.

Those familiar with the David Weis trading video, know that phrase well.

The entry analysis is done, the trade entered and now, the management of that trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

The SOXX & The Stop

We’re only part way through today’s session; it’s already been a very busy day for the SOXX.

A gap-up open that was quickly retraced. Now, we’re trading lower, hovering around 231.50

Elder said years ago, ‘when the market is at a reversal point, there’s a lot of turbulence’.

We have that for sure in this case.

Moving on to the chart

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Stated in a prior update, a short position on the SOXX would have an initial stop of 243.63.

As a result of this morning’s action, it’s reasonable to move that stop lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

The reason to move lower so quickly, has been defined by the market itself.

We’ve already had a sharp opening gap-higher where the bulls (may) have given it all they have.

That level was quickly retraced, inferring the bears are (now) in control.

If that level is threatened, SOXX moving higher, then bulls have regained control, likely to move higher, still.

There’s nothing else but ‘set the stop and walk away’. 🙂

Of course, if one is using the leveraged inverse fund SOXS for a short position, the stop level chosen would correspond to the SOXX, above (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX, Looking Both Ways

June 3, 2024 By in 1987, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX

Narrowing Risk or Preparing For Higher?

In the pre-market, the SOXX is up about +1.29%, trading at 236.90.

As discussed in the ‘comment’ section of the prior update, if last Friday was short covering, the expectation was for a lower open.

So, far it’s not there, or there’s more ‘covering’ to go.

From a Fibonacci standpoint (shown below), pre-market action is near the 61.8% retrace.

Semiconductor SOXX, 15-minute

As of this post (8:15 a.m., EST) SOXX is trading at the Fibonacci level (small black ‘brackets’ on the chart).

We can see that area is also resistance.

In-n-Out

This is what working at ‘the edge of the lake’ is all about.

Price action has not shown decisively whether it will continue higher or if we’re in a reversal.

A decisive push past Friday’s SOXX high, 237.35, likely means it’s going to attempt to close the gap left from the May 29th open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking at it both ways, the risk on a short position is being lowered further, or we’re on to new summertime highs (like August 1987) before potential reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bubble Trouble

June 2, 2024 By in NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX 5 Comments

Is This, The Extreme?

Previous top and reversal analysis of the SOXX, and its chief cook and bottle washer, Nvidia, have been premature.

Analysis, correct for a while, only to be negated by more upward action.

So, we have to ask ourselves;

‘Do we feel lucky?’ 🙂

Actually, luck does not have much to do with it; let’s go to the action itself.

First, the long-term view of largest cap, Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Quarterly

We can clearly see Prechter’s ‘Rule of alternation’ at work.

Complex, simple, complex and so on.

Note the massive upward spike in Thrust Energy (middle panel).

We’re less than a month away from completing the 2nd Quarter. It looks like thrust energy is, or will be, diverging (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving on to the SOXX.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Weekly

Recently, the week of April 19th, there was a significant downard thrust.

A similar thrust (blue arrows) resulted in a decline lasting ten months, dropping approximately -45.35%.

However, in the case above, the reversal has yet to materialize … or has it?

Last week posted outside-down, but did not close outside-down.

It leaves the probability open for upward action.

However, from a risk standpoint, it’s The Danger Point®.

If we use last week’s high, SOXX 243.63, as a hard stop, the cost of being wrong positioned short, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VI

June 1, 2024 By in Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Gold & Silver, NVDA, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXS-24-07, SOXX

Top Or Channel?

The market itself, tells us where to look.

The past five ‘Silver Top’ updates have looked at recent action, as a potential top and downside reversal.

The ‘Part V’, update (link here), included a ‘measured move’ target.

In the markets, an infinite number of events can be true simultaneously. Dr. Elder covers this in his book, with individual traders working multiple timeframes.

All of which brings us to the chart below.

Silver SLV, Monthly

From previous updates, we’re hovering around the support resistance zone.

Now, we can see price action’s also hitting the top of a trading channel.

The question of course is, what’s the next likely outcome?

Even without considering what else is going on in other markets, a pause, sideways congestion, or downward testing seems to be the highest probability (not advice, not a recommendation).

Did The ‘Bubble’ Just Pop?

When we do take other events into account, wide swings in the SOXX on Friday, Nvidia posting a narrow range weekly bar, a potential top indicator, Ed Dowd said, when this all implodes, there’ll be margin calls aplenty.

The technical situation of the SOXX, is planned for tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279