Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Gold Miners & Elliott Wave

October 30, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Prechter, Retail Investor, ZeroHedge 5 Comments

Works Best Under Stress

Elliott Wave and Fibonacci are joined at the hip.

They work best when markets are emotional or under stress.

Historic moves like that of gold and silver, are such times (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve already seen Fibonacci count(s) operating in the financial sector here and here.

So, let’s look at the miners and see what’s happening.

Senior Miners GDX, Daily Close

Five waves down; the direction of main trend has changed from up, to down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, as long as the wave structure stays ‘in-effect’, the target area for the counter-trend retrace is:

‘The previous 4th-wave of lesser degree’, link here (click on ‘Corrective Waves’ and scroll to ‘Depth of Corrective Waves’).

That area is indicated by the magenta oval.

While the potential corrective wave grinds higher, ‘retail’ moves in to buy the dip, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financials follow Fibonacci

October 29, 2025 By in Banking, Financial Sector, XLF 1 Comment

Sequence Intact … So Far

The segment at left, shows confirmation, the financial sector is following a Fibonacci sequence for pivot points.

As stated in the last update, this usually takes place when markets are emotional, stressed, or both.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s ‘Shocking’ Reversal

October 28, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Dollar, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, Thoughtful Money, UUP 1 Comment

… And ‘Dollar Debasement’

‘When the trade gets a name, it’s over’. Ed Dowd

His assessment on the ‘dollar debasement’ trade, comments on gold, can be found here.

Gold dropped -50%, during the last melt-down, ’07 – ’08; it could do the same again (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, we’re looking at gold (GLD) from a strategic standpoint.

Meaning, it’s a long-term bull market, but where a sustained ‘correction’ may be at hand.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The trendline goes all the way back to the beginning of the GLD, fund.

Note the largest ever Force Index. Past similar actions either resulted in a sideways move, or reversal.

The Fibonacci projection tool, highlighted in magenta.

The projection levels are shown as blue lines. It’s clear, GLD is ‘respecting’ the levels.

A gold, GLD drop of 50% (from the 403.30, high), would put it at 201.65 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Margin Debt Increases

First, it was $1 Trillion.

Now, it’s $1.13 Trillion; discussed here.

While everyone’s looking for A.I. to burst (including this site), maybe the precious metals are going first.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Boom & Bust

October 27, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV, SIZ25

Retrace Targets

We’ve just had an unprecedented launch to record levels, link here.

Eight trading days ago, price action pushed through levels not seen in two generations.

However, the next day, that all changed.

Looking at the front-month (December) futures contract SIZ25, price action itself, shows classic signs of a commodity blow-off top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Daily

Price tends to go where there are transactions.

From the March lows in 2020, to the (potential) blow-off top, the majority of transactions took place in the 21 – 24, area (i.e., ‘Support Zone’).

Remember, there’s that $1-Trillion in margin debt, just waiting to be ‘called’ if not so already.

Silver could get to retrace levels quickly or not at all.

The market itself will let us know the most probable outcome.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Isolated Fraud’

October 26, 2025 By in Banking, Financial Sector, KRE, SD Buiilion, XLF 2 Comments

The New, ‘Subprime Contained’

That’s how mainstream financial media labels it.

Not to worry, it’s only:

‘Isolated Fraud‘

Some know but probably most don’t, the banking laws were changed over a decade ago, in 2014.

Details about those changes, are here and here.

With that said, price action of ETF financial sectors KRE and XLF, have not completely melted down … yet (not advice, not a recommendation).

What they have done, is topped, reversed, and are now testing resistance levels; especially XLF.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily Close

For reference, the all-time high and reversal (still intact) was first discussed here.

Also shown, is the Fibonacci time sequence that appears to be in-effect.

Fibonacci sequencing tends to work best when markets are highly emotional (like now).

Monday, is ‘Day 8’.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Healthy’ Pull-Back

October 25, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV, London Metal Exchange

Peak Euphoria?

Looking at the graphic, where are we with silver?

Did we get to euphoria?

With silver bars being flown to the London Metal Exchange (here) and old-timers saying they’ve ‘never seen anything like it’, it’s possible, just possible, we’ve reached euphoria (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, that was until last week’s breakdown.

Has it all-of-a-sudden moved to anxiety; saying it’s just a ‘healthy’ pull-back?

Pull-back or not, the chart of ETF tracking fund SLV, shows a nascent trend-line … down.

Silver ETF, SLV, Daily

There’s also a possible channel.

We may find out as early as tomorrow night, when Sunday futures open, if the above potential(s) are in effect.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX’s Wedge Launch Higher

October 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17

Incredibly Dangerous

Is it going to play out exactly as Bert Dohmen said it would?

That is, grinding ‘window dressing’ action higher, toward the end of the year?

With last night’s upside and higher open, the SOXX has negated the reversal and has posted something else.

It’s in the chart below, a ‘terminating wedge’.

Semiconductors SOXX, 2-Day

The 2-Day chart is a better view of the pattern.

A wedge typically occurs near the end of the move whether it’s up or down.

The pattern above, implies that Nvidia has one more last gasp (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next earnings release is scheduled for November 19th.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will Nvidia Crater by 90%?

October 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CSCO, Ed Dowd, MRNA, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17, Thoughtful Money

Sell & Hold

During an interview with Thoughtful Money (link here), Ed Dowd says this about the A.I. bubble:

‘When it’s all said and done, Nvidia will be down by 80% – 90%’

This morning, the SOXX just printed a new daily high. Does that mean the reversal has been negated?

That depends on what happens next.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

We have the all time high and up-thrust. Then, the trend break (yesterday), and now the test.

Obviously, there’s a lot of volatility.

If this is ‘the’ reversal of the A. I. mania, possibly the largest bubble in market history, then action like this, is ‘normal’. 🙂

Just like Cisco Networks was chief cook and bottle washer back in the day, this time, it’s Nvidia.

When it was all said and done, CSCO declined over -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Did The SOXX (and A.I.) Just Top?

October 22, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-17 4 Comments

While Everyone’s Watching The Metals

Yesterday, the metals and miners imploded.

While all the focus was on them, back at the ranch, the SOXX reached another top.

Last time we looked, the index had an apparent Fibonacci count that has since been negated.

Robert Prechter said it himself decades ago, ‘price action form is first, then time’.

The SOXX then went on to post a new all-time high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Note yesterday’s bar posted a new daily low after the all-time high.

As the SOXX, oscillated in a narrow range, it became apparent we may be at a significant inflection; three separate shorts were opened, combined into one position as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market action (7:55 a.m., EST), shows the SOXX trading at 288.09, below yesterday’s low of 289.22.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banks ‘Rolling Over’

October 21, 2025 By in Banking, Ed Dowd, KRE, KRE-25-02, Ox Talks, Positions, Thoughtful Money

Market Summary, Ed Dowd

The section at left, shows the bank (KRE) rebound from last Thursday’s sell-off, losing steam.

In the early part of this interview with Ed Dowd, he states the banks are ‘rolling over’ as a result of a ‘toxic brew’ of economic conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).

We see that (potential) in the chart.

Adding to that, we have this, from ‘Ox Talks’.

It’s a technical rundown of the latest fraud and lawsuit. Well worth the 17-minutes to view.

That was yesterday. Today, he’s out with more, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279