Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Overnight, Oil Spikes Higher

June 13, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XOP, XOP-25-01 1 Comment

Bull Market, or Not

Overnight, oil futures launched higher.

Selected news links, below:

Oil Could Hit $130 In “Worst Case Scenario”: JPMorgan, link here.

Images Emerge Of Tehran Destruction After Major Israeli ‘Preemptive Attack’; IRGC Chief Killed. link here

Crude propelled by Israeli attacks on Iran; ES -1.1%, DXY +0.8% – Newsquawk US Market Open, link here

Crude +8%, ES -1.5% after Israel conducts strikes on Iranian nuclear & military targets – Newsquawk Europe Market Open, link here.

Oil, Bull Market?

Even as this post is being created (8:54 a.m., EST), oil futures are backing off overnight highs.

It’s what happens next, that’s important.

If oil and related markets like XOP, can’t hold or surpass those highs, well then, we have our answer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Oil & Gas, XOP, Daily

In the pre-market session, XOP is trading just below the 61.8%, Fibonacci projection.

If the XOP wave is ‘corrective’, shown as ‘a-b-c’ above, that means it’s against the main trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, At Support

June 12, 2025 By in CVNA 1 Comment

A Rally, From Here …

The chart segment at left, shows CVNA, testing support; ready to break lower or rally higher.

If there’s a rally, we’re still on track for the next Fibonacci projection: The 261.8%, as shown.

At this point, there has been no new weekly low (below 316.41), so the probabilities favor continued upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall from this update, if price action makes it to the upper Fib level, it will be all-time highs for CVNA.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Are Bulls Leaving GDX?

June 11, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ-25-01, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions

Volume Retreats

The chart of Senior Miners, GDX, at left, shows successive declines in print high, close high, and volume on net up days.

This is a subtle indication, the bulls may be backing off to see what happens next.

After all, it’s been non-stop cheerleading by the press:

Ditch the SPX – Precious Metals Are the Real Deal, link here.

Silver Is Finally Soaring: Here’s Why, link here.

Metallic Mayhem: Platinum Pops, Silver Squeezes, Gold Brews, link here.

On the other side, inflation seems to be slowing, absent, or even (gasp) declining.

What’s going to happen if/when there’s a ‘deflation’ scare?

Fearmongering Pundits Disappointed AGAIN As Consumer Prices Refuse To Surge On Trump Tariffs, link here.

Positioning

Currently short GDX, with a tight stop near yesterday’s high @ 52.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla’s Plug, Pulled

June 10, 2025 By in Prechter, TSLA, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

The Jolt, Is Gone

Last week, saw the largest ever, downward thrust energy for Tesla.

Price, whacked over -14%, in one day.

Then, ‘retail’ comes in to buy the dip (emphasis added):

Retail Investors Find A New And Extremely Dangerous Way To Chase TSLA, link here.

Pay no attention to the fact, on the fundamental side, EV sales are falling off a cliff, across the board:

US Electric Vehicle Adoption Plummets, link here.

Goldman Slashes Tesla Delivery Estimates On Weak Monthly Trends, link here.

All of which feeds into the (EV) supporting side of manufacturing:

Chinese-Owned Firm Halts Construction On Battery Plant In America’s EV Heartland, link here.

Then, on the environmental side, yet another EV fire:

New Footage Shows Abandoned Cargo Ship Laden With Chinese Cars Burning In Pacific, link here.

On the political side, it’s hard to gauge:

Musk Hit Bessent ‘Like A Rugby Player’ In White House Fight, Bannon Claims, link here.

‘Very Disrespectful’: Trump ‘Assumes’ Musk Relationship Is Over, link here.

The reason the politics are important, is because of the subsidies, link here.

On the price action side, we have the following:

Tesla TSLA, Daily

Pre-market trading (as of 8:56 a.m., EST) is around 315.15, slightly below the 50% retrace level shown.

Unfortunately (for them), the ‘retail’ investor, is telling us where the probabilities lay (not advice, not a recommendation).

Retail Woes

Before we feel sorry for ‘retail’, we’ve all been there at one point. Robert Prechter Jr., said it best when asked, ‘What advice, do you have for the average investor?’

His response was timeless: ‘Stop being the average investor’

What’s Next?

We’ve just had the largest downward force in the history of TSLA, a rebound fueled by apparent desperation, price action at or near the 50% retrace (from the 5/29, highs); the overall probabilities have become clear.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Bounces At Trend

June 9, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX 1 Comment

Grinding Higher, To Target(s)

Carvana could reverse right here and now. Anything can happen.

With that said, when looking at the chart, Carvana continues to grind higher to the next Fibonacci target(s).

We’re talking about targets (plural) because CVNA, price action’s exhibiting both time and distance characteristics, presented in the last update, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

If the rally continues and makes it to target at ‘Day 89’, it will be all-time highs for CVNA.

Hitting all-time-highs, think of the hysteria; exactly what would be needed to look for a short opportunity (not advice not a recommendation).

All the while, competitor CarMax, continues trending, lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 8, 2025 By in GCQ25, GLD, SLV

Gold, Silver, Potential ‘Reversal’

Yesterday’s update, presented the idea, silver may be at an inflection point; either reversal or sideways action (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the case of gold, we’re still below the highs set on April 22nd.

As of this post, the gold contract GCQ25, is trading slightly lower (6:55 p.m., EST)

Note, the last analysis on gold, GLD, presented the ‘Force Index’ indicator for potential reversal.

Until gold, GLD posts a decisive new high, past 317.63, that indicator is still in-effect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold GLD, 8-Day

Note the possible blow-off price action and thrust energy.

Also note the downward thrust.

This size of downward force has only happened twice before; the 2020 panic lows, and the last time gold started major, long-time reversal (September, of 2011).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Breakout or Not?

June 7, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-02, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SLV 1 Comment

We’re at The Target

So, which is it?

Door No. 1

Silver’s in the long (decades long) awaited breakout to hyperinflationary heaven, or …

Door No. 2

Silver has met its Fibonacci target, ready for reversal, sideways action, or …

Door No. 3

None of the above.

Then, what about the Miners?

It looks like they (GDX) have already decided.

No sooner had Friday’s update been released, they appear to have reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, there’s a lot going on in the markets and it’s happening fast. We’ve already been told what’s (likely to be) coming.

Back to silver, SLV.

Silver SLV, Weekly

The chart shows what looks to be a corrective a-b-c (against the trend) move that’s lasted several years.

Note the ‘alternation’ of the moves.

Wave ‘a’ was dynamic, straight up. Next wave higher, wave ‘c’, is choppy and overlapping.

Moving in closer, we have the following.

The chart itself, says we’re back to the volume ‘spikes’ that typically occur (for SLV) at, or near, the end of a move (not advice, not a recommendation).

To add intrigue, note the massive downward thrust of Force Index during the ‘Tariff’ uproar.

Is this another hint of (pending) reversal?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver, Nears The ‘Target’

June 6, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, JDST, JDST-25-12, MDB, MDB-25-01, Positions, SLV 1 Comment

What Happens, Then?

Let’s look at silver’s ‘breakout’ and see where the move might be headed.

A standard Fibonacci projection tool is shown on the silver chart; then, an additional chart (of MDB) presents how it looks, when met.

Silver SLV, Monthly

We’re very near the ‘100%’ projection.

Now, for an example of how it looks when the projection is met (exactly).

MongoDB, MDB, Daily

Price action hits the 261.8% exactly, after the earnings release.

After getting ‘whacked’ on positioning short the miners, all positions closed.

Standing aside for now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sell, Into The ‘Heat’

June 5, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-15-01, Positions

Against The Herd

Yesterday, CrowdStrike came on the radar with its less than stellar, earnings release.

That, along with pre-market action, put CRWD on the ‘short’ list (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, no P/E, and no yield. 🙂

The open was well below support.

It was tempting to go short immediately; the challenge, wait as long as possible (and not miss the entry).

CrowdStrike CRWD, 15-minute

Sell, into the ‘heat’.

Short entry @ 468.285 (note: correcting yesterday’s error of 468.25).

As the short was entered, CRWD, was screaming higher, nearly straight up.

We can see in retrospect; the entry was near the high.

In the markets, you’re either early, or late; I’d rather be early (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike … Whacked!

June 4, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-15-01, Positions

Just The Beginning?

A self-inflicted wound.

Already short @ 468.25, CRWD-25-01, with stop to be the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Earnings release just out, shows, Revenues ‘below estimates’, link here.

CrowdStrike website, link here.

History of CrowdStrike from Wiki (not an endorsement), link here.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279