Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Duolingo … P/E 171, and Climbing

August 7, 2025 By in DUOL

How High Is Up?

Are Duolingo’s latest earnings, the last gasp, or just the beginning?

According to BigCharts, P/E for DUOL is 171, from TC2000, it’s around 142.

Either way, it’s big; DUOL, could be considered as a consumer discretionary stock.

Short interest is low, around 6%.

In the pre-market session, DUOL is trading at 438 (as of 8:44 a.m., EST).

That’s very near the 50% retrace level, from May 14th, high to August 1st, low, which just happened to be 330.32. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UBER & Earnings

August 6, 2025 By in Ed Dowd, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, UBER, Wyckoff

Downside Pressure

UBER’s earnings were stellar; why’s the stock heading lower?

From a Wyckoff analysis perspective, the question’s not relevant.

We pay no attention to financial news, or news of any kind.

The real question, ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

UBER, Daily

The repeating pattern, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

On a longer, monthly timeframe (not shown), there’s a massive MACD bearish divergence; telling us, opportunity favors the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

To minimize risk as much as possible, we’re looking for price action to rise into the close, narrowing the distance between entry and stop.

The stop would be (if a trade is placed) at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Economic Conditions.

Another interview with Ed Dowd, has surfaced, link here.

As one of the comments noted, ‘this is the best synopsis of actual market conditions presented, to-date’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bear Flag’, in The SOXX

August 5, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-09 1 Comment

Is This (finally) It?

As a reminder, this update said we may be at the end of the short-covering rally from the April lows.

That’s proven to be correct (so far).

From the same update, we have the weekly Fibonacci correlation at 55 weeks between highs.

With that said, let’s look at the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

We’re using the shorter timeframe as the flag is not that easily seen on the daily chart.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-09, with the stop at today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Implodes, Carvana, Next?

August 4, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-09, KMX, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Swan Dive, to The Street

Something’s very wrong between CarMax, and Carvana.

CarMax’s annual sales are effectively twice that of Carvana; 26.5bln, vs. 13.67bln; source here and here.

CarMax printed its all-time highs years ago, now down over -64% from those highs.

However, just last week, Carvana posted all-time highs.

Adding to that, with half the sales of CarMax, Carvana’s market cap, is effectively ten times larger, than CarMax (source TC2000).

How does that work?

Is Carvana about to join CarMax, to the downside?

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

First, we have the set-up, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Next, the print and retreat from all-time highs (last Thursday).

Now, we have downside continuation with a potential trendline.

As this post is being created, CVNA, continues down; trading at 355.28 (as of 10:52 a.m., EST), down -3.41%

Maintaining short, as CVNA-25-09; stop to be moved lower to today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, DIA-25-01, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Rebound, or Rout

Yesterday’s update, said that biotech XBI, finished the day in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; to (possibly) move higher into the target zone.

Today, we have this analysis, link here that indicates a similar scenario for the overall markets.

It’s possible there will be some upside bias this week (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re about an hour into the session; the S&P is trading flat along with the Dow,

If last week’s downside was going to continue aggressively, a much lower start would be expected.

So far, that’s not happening.

Short The Dow

A trade not discussed, is the short in the Dow, DIA-25-01.

Depending on price action in the coming week, that short may be increased.

If so, it’ll be discussed at that time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … On The Road Again

August 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Heading To The Set-Up

For a while, it looked like the last update’s conclusions were incorrect; that biotech (XBI), was not going to make it to up-thrust condition.

Then, we had Friday’s action, a textbook reversal bar.

So, now, it looks like there’s potential to get back on track to the target area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Price action penetrated support, XBI is now in ‘spring position’.

After Friday’s downswing for the overall markets, there could be some upside bias early in the week (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

HOOD-Wink

August 1, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-03, Livermore, Positions 1 Comment

Is ‘Retail’ Finished for This Cycle?

The average Robinhood account size is $7,658.

For comparison, average Schwab account is $152,000.

Interactive Brokers, is larger still, $158,000.

A small account is not an indicator of acumen in itself; Livermore’s first trade was Burlington, netting him a profit of $3.12.

However, he moved on, trading size in the $millions.

With that said, let’s look at the chart.

Robinhood HOOD, Daily

It’s possible we have a trend break and trading channel.

As noted, if we’re in a channel, it’s Fibonacci 8 Days, wide.

Positioned short as HOOD-25-03, with stop at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Incredible Numbers

July 31, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, KMX

Exhaustion Gap?

With rival CarMax, down nearly -63%, from its all-time highs, increasing loan-loss reserves, and boots-on-the-ground reporting like this, it’s interesting that somehow, Carvana seems to have transcended the fundamentals. 🙂

Or is it really as Jesse Livermore used to say, ‘all about the numbers’.

No, not the earnings, P/E, or any other ‘financial’ metric, but numbers like Fibonacci, as we’ll see below.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

We’re still in pre-market trading with about thirty minutes to go before the open.

If CVNA, opens at its current level, it’s right at the 261.8%, Fibonacci projection and all-time highs.

Short interest on CVNA is currently listed at 9.36%, here.

If the open is at the level shown, it’s likely to clear out some (or most) that are short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Update … Carvana All-Time-Highs

July 30, 2025 By in CVNA

After Hours Session

The last update on Carvana was here.

“CVNA, could just blip higher at the open and reverse.

It could spend the whole day at the test level.

It could blow through to new daily highs … literally, anything.”

Well, it looks like the ‘literally, anything’, is what happened.

With earnings just released in the after-hours session, CVNA is trading at 382, with a peak thus far, of 386.99 (as of 4:34 p.m., EST).

That peak is right at the (higher) 261.8%, Fibonacci projection level shown in this update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s ‘Algorithmic’ Grind

July 30, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Richie Naso, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Day by Day, Inching Higher

It’s been over two months, since this post.

As the chart shows, biotech XBI, has made it all the way back, to the (blue line) resistance area.

However, it has not pushed above that area to create an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

Richie Naso, on Algorithms

Mr. Naso gives us a brief (technical) three-minute detail on why we should expect XBI, to penetrate the resistance area, link here.

He’s describing false moves (Wyckoff springs and up-thrusts) that trap the inexperienced and unsuspecting; it’s what markets do.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Notice the ‘choppy’ action.

It’s as if XBI, is looking for some kind of resolution, like maybe, a false breakout.

There’s no guarantee we’ll get above resistance. If it happens, there’s no guarantee it’s a false breakout.

However, as Naso says, the ‘probability’ of a false breakout, is (in his words) ‘above 80%’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279