Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Carvana, Skids To A (volatility) Halt

December 9, 2024 By in CVNA 1 Comment

The Last Time This Happened …

It’s right there, in the chart below.

The last time Carvana volatility was this low, measured by Bollinger Band width, was back in late November, early December, of 2021.

That was right before CVNA, began a decline taking it down nearly -99%.

So, here we are.

We have the same (amount of) volatility contraction. Will it be different for Carvana this time?

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

This post is not recommending any trading action of any type.

We’re just presenting the facts. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short Squeeze ‘Exhaustion’

December 8, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, KMX, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Anybody Left, To Cover?

Has the market extracted just about all it can from the shorts?

Is the ‘consumer’ giving it the ‘last hurrah?

Are autos, real estate, about to implode?

When, will the plug be pulled?

The problem is, in the markets, when the plug (really) is pulled, it’s too late to get into a low-risk short position.

That work needs to be done ahead of time.

All of which, brings us to CarMax.

Company earnings are coming up in nine trading days, before the open.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Let’s see if KMX, uses earnings as an ‘excuse’ for launch to 38.2% retrace level (or higher).

If or when that happens, it’s what happens next, that will tell us if there’s an opportunity to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Copper’s (economic) Warning

December 7, 2024 By in Copper, FCX, ZeroHedge

As Copper Goes …

We’ve all heard the saying:

‘As copper goes, so goes the economy’.

While the financial press attempts to figure out the ‘real economy‘, one barometer of said economy, has already headed lower.

Copper’s initial top, more specifically, Freeport-McMoRan Inc., (FCX), was first covered in this post.

It’s been a struggle ever since.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc., FCX Weekly

The original ‘Up-Thrust’ data point is shown along with a (potential) terminating wedge.

After the top, were several tests higher; all have failed.

Now we’re at the wedge boundary, set for a breakdown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looks like FCX, is showing us the ‘real economy’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Ends Week, Down

December 6, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

That’s Not All

Is a long-term, downside reversal in this sector, about to bubble to the surface?

With yesterday’s update, it’s easy to get lost in the hourly and daily maneuvers; see a likely (short-term) potential, while it just distracts from the bigger picture.

That ‘big picture’, is below.

Once again, we have a (potential) repeating set-up: Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

With this week’s volatile action but lower overall close (from last week), the ‘up-thrust test may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s Reversal … Reversed

December 5, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Forming An Island?

Less than one trading day later, the biotech XBI, reversal bar discussed yesterday has itself, been reversed.

Not only that, when looking at the chart, it’s an eerie feeling there could be an island gap at hand (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the market will let us know.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’re about 30-minutes before the close; price action is lower for the day.

There may also be a downtrend line in the works.

We’ll discuss that in another update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Slams Into A Test

December 4, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: 2 Comments

Is The (short) ‘Risk’ Least?

Price action for biotech XBI, is compressed.

From a bullish side, today (as of 12:10 p.m., EST) is a daily reversal bar.

From a bearish side, we’re at the extreme for an upside test.

Market’s bearish tone: Several weeks ago on November 15th, the sector had its largest down-volume day, ever.

In Wyckoff terms, this has potentially negated the bullish case (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s see what price action in XBI, is saying about itself.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

As of this post, XBI is near the top of its weekly range, narrowing risk on a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll leave it there and let the speculator make his/her decision whether or not action is warranted.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Nears Breakout

December 3, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, KMX, Wyckoff Tags: ,

A False Breakout?

A data-point of one, may not be significant unless that ‘data-point’, is repeated over and over.

That brings us to this link.

Do we have a ‘one-off’ event or is the data point being repeated?

To help answer, this site’s been monitoring what should be one of the fastest selling (used) cars in the market, Toyota Camry.

Scanning the CarMax inventory of Camry’s has the same cars (with minor changes) still for sale, since August, at elevated prices no -less.

Seems to corroborate the link above and makes you wonder what’s (really) happening?

With that, let’s move on to the potential opportunity.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

There’s a lot going on in this chart.”

“What do you see?”

The wedge is obvious.

Maybe a little more subtle until it’s pointed out, huge volume churn since the breakdown during the week of September 30th, 2022.

That’s over two-years of potential distribution.

From a Wyckoff standpoint using his ‘Cause and Effect’ analogy, whatever’s about to happen to KMX, it’s setting itself up for a potential, sustained, long-duration move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Earnings Release

Earnings scheduled for December 19th, before the open.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Will Bulls Be Trapped?

December 2, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

One More Set-Up, Before Downside?

So, here we are.

Another repeating set-up.

Wyckoff: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

Let’s cut straight to the chase.

This set-up type was first covered years ago, at this link.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Until the market proves otherwise, we’re still sub-dividing lower in a downtrend (not advice, not a recommendation).

At times, a trend-break will have multiple tests.

Recall, this update said we’re at Fibonacci Week 21.

Now, with the new daily and weekly high we’ve moved to Fibonacci Week 21 (+1).

A week plus or minus, for a 21-week count, is within acceptable error limits (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … One More ‘Blip’?

December 1, 2024 By in Biotech, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, SILJ, SLV, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI-24-01 Tags: 1 Comment

Setting Up, For The Downside

The next trade (lower) could be in silver itself, or it could be in the Junior Miners, GDXJ, and/or SILJ, the sectors (ETFs) most susceptible (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last time silver had a major downswing was in early-to-late 2022; tracking fund SLV, declined about -35%, top-to-bottom.

During the same period, Junior Miners GDXJ, declined over -50%, so take your pick.

Silver SLV, closed out last week penetrating downside support and then moving (inching) back higher.

We should all know what that means. 🙂

Silver SLV, Weekly

Silver penetrates support and then retraces; Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).

The 50% retrace area is shown. It will be interesting to see if SLV, gets that far.

Perhaps more interesting from a set-up standpoint, is what GDXJ, and SILJ, will be doing if and when that happens.

Positioning: SLV & Miners

The mining sector has been ‘out-of-favor’ since this update years ago.

Since that time and looking at the charts, the most dynamic (fastest action) trade opportunities, were to the downside.

There are no open positions in this sector at this time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning: Biotech, XBI-24-01

Separately, as stated in this update, the short trade in biotech (via XBI) was brief.

It was stopped out with a loss of 0.15-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Which (break) is Which?

November 30, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX 1 Comment

Bubbles, Side-by-Side

Here’s something a little different.

Two trend breaks are shown side-by-side.

Without looking at prior updates, which chart is the internet (QQQ) bubble break and which chart is the A.I. (SOXX), bubble break?

We’ll cue the Jeopardy music while you pick. 🙂

And now, for the reveal

Internet Bubble QQQ, Weekly

The chart segment on the right, is the internet bubble of the 2000s.

There’s no ‘rest of the story’ with the SOXX.

That story has yet to happen (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279