Category Archives: Corn

CORN Update

October 31, 2020 By in Corn

Back in the day, Livermore talked about how he established positions for a directional move … a move that would last days, weeks, or longer.

In his fictionalized biography, Reminisces of a Stock Operator he said words to the effect, take a full size position early; then leave it alone.

We are at the danger point for CORN make no mistake.  Price action penetrated previous well established support and stopped dead.

Our initial position (not a recommendation, not advice) was entered about seven minutes before the close on Thursday.  Doing so, gave an entry that was just 0.04 points from the lows of the day.

The expectation for today’s session was for prices to rise immediately; which they did.

During this session, the initial position was increased by 50% (pyramiding) and the stop left (around 10.10 – 10.18) for now.

The risk of course, is what happens when the crop report is released just at the close on Monday.

It’s not what’s in the report that’s important.  It’s the ‘excuse’ to move prices around that’s important.

Of course, we could be stopped out beforehand.  Anything can happen.

The weekly chart shows a potential trend line and channel.  Downward thrust has dissipated when compared to the last weekly move lower (9/25/20).

The only real negative from today’s session; volume was light.

Stay Tuned 

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Going Long CORN

October 30, 2020 By in Corn, Teucrium

The daily chart shows detail of the initial position in CORN. Expandable version of the chart is here.

More info on the Teucrium CORN Fund is here.  Essentially, the fund tracks an amalgamation of three corn futures contacts.

Price action mimics, but is not directly related to the front month.

From a trading standpoint, the job of the sponsor firm is to locate two types of market set-ups or their failures (as in the case of GDXJ).

Those set-ups are denominated as a Wyckoff “Spring” or “Up-thrust”.

More detail on Wyckoff can be found here for those interested.  It should be noted, Wyckoff is well known in the industry but kept close to the vest.

Back to CORN.  The actual physical stop is not determined at this time.  The pre-market bid/ask spreads indicate a higher open for CORN.

If CORN penetrates the prior session’s daily high, the stop will be set a few ticks below at that session’s low (~13.18).

Fundamentals are in favor of continued higher prices: 

Record (and earlier than normal) cold moving into the growing areas. 

Weather anomalies (inland hurricanes) and spontaneous combustion of grain silos are all part of the picture.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Corn Trading Channel

October 29, 2020 By in Corn

CORN has been in a trading channel for months. The weekly chart below shows CORN at the right side of the channel.

Today’s session was quite narrow with price action closing just below existing support.

It’s in Wyckoff spring position.  Higher prices are expected (not a recommendation, not advice).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Corn at Pivot

September 30, 2020 By in Corn

Ever since the “Derecho”, the inland hurricane, it has not been the same for corn.

ETN, CORN, shows we’re at a 38% retrace that’s also support.

Next crop progress report is scheduled for October 5th.

The volume characteristics for CORN have changed over the past four months. 

There is trading interest in this sector.

Last year, trading volume in CORN had died-off by this time.  Not so, this year.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

CORN: Breakout Higher

September 14, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, Corn, IBB

The agricultural food supply, and delivery systems are being destroyed systematically.

The fundamental picture for corn at this juncture, should be well known. 

Weather events, whether manufactured or not, are taking out huge (silo) stockpiles in addition to destroying what’s still in the fields.

The August 20th, update highlighted a CORN trend-line.

Since then, CORN price action has morphed into a trading channel.

We’re now at the right side and in position to move higher. A channel failure at this point would be obvious.

If CORN does not continue upward from here, the channel has lost its effectiveness and/or, the market has some other objective.

Biotech IBB: Update

Anything can happen. Price action reversed above the 23.6%, retrace, hit the 38.2% retrace and kept going.

Our result was to exit the (IBB), short position during today’s session.

We’re past the 38% retrace level which leaves 50% and 61.8%; Trading action is to stand aside (not advice, not a recommendation) for now.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Prepping For The Downside

August 30, 2020 By in 1929, AMGN, Biotech, BIS, Coal, Corn, IBB

The more sophisticated market participants work the downside.  That’s where the biggest (and fastest) money is made.

shutterstock_242289160Trading books and specifically Reminisces of a Stock Operator, (first published in 1923) detail how the wealthiest traders in the world prefer downside action.

The markets are now stretched to obscene levels and could go higher, still.

Just this past week, we have interest rates breaking out to the up-side, a-la August, 1987.

Being long anything other than corn or wheat and the occasional down-trodden coal miner,  seems to be a high risk plan (not a recommendation).

Positioning for the downside in the appropriate market, might be a lower risk option than riding the insanity to the top … wherever that is.

Which brings us to inverse biotech fund, BIS.  The daily chart shows the well-heeled know something’s up.

2020-08-30_9-32-52-IBB-Daily-5-bar-lanscape-notesSpeculative volume for potential downside in biotech is increasing.  Last Friday’s volume in BIS was the highest in nearly four years.

BIS was trading higher throughout the entire session until the last few minutes.  It closed slightly lower for the day and thus colored the volume bar red.

That minor BIS downturn (up turn in IBB) can be traced directly to Amgen (AMGN) which is now part of the Dow 30, effective Monday the 31st.

It’s important to note that for the past four months, volume activity in IBB has remained relatively unchanged.  Not so with BIS.

We’re nearing the Labor Day Weekend during the next sessions.  The market will be closed on Monday, September 7th.

Back in the day of 1929, the market made its all time high on September 3rd, the Tuesday after the Labor Day Weekend.

 

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Character Change: CORN

August 26, 2020 By in Corn

Fotosearch_k5736206Changes in character; price action, volume or both, tells us something’s gong on behind the scenes.

For the Teucrium CORN fund, it’s obvious.

Trading volume has increased dramatically.

CORN has the highest level of sustained daily volume in the fund’s history.

Price action has confirmed the 400%, trend line … at least for now.

2020-08-25_21-11-28-CORN-Daily-4-bar-notes

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

 

Is Corn The Catalyst?

August 20, 2020 By in Banking, Bonds, Corn, Gold & Silver, S&P 500 2 Comments

Bonds, biotech, the banks; or is it corn that’s the catalyst?

Everyone’s focused on the markets, the S&P 500.

Fotosearch_k8956751Meanwhile, back at the farm (literally), the food supply is undergoing controlled demolition.

If the supply chain continues to be restricted with prices rising ever higher, the silver and gold ‘stackers’, may have to liquidate their hoard just to survive.

Getting back to corn; the technical position of the ETF, CORN was highlighted yesterday in this post.

Now, with about an hour before market close, CORN has posted a 38% retrace and reversal ( if close is at or above current levels).

On top of that, it may be too early but maybe not.  CORN is now trending upward at over 400%, annualized.

One day, does not a trend make.  Then again, wouldn’t it be nice to know early on of the possibility?

2020-08-20_13-42-53-CORN-Daily-4-bar-notes

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Corn Flattened

August 19, 2020 By in Biotech, Corn, Derecho, Gold & Silver, SLV 12 Comments

Ten percent of the U.S corn crop was instantly wiped out last week during what’s described as an inland hurricane.

The video here goes into more detail about correlating events.

iStock-1019396932

To limit the food supply even further, driving prices higher under the guise of inflation, the ‘speck’ (time stamp 6:00) has invaded 100% of tested agriculture workers in California.

The corn ETF mentioned at Time Stamp, 4:16, in the linked video is shown below:  CORN is the ticker symbol.

The ‘derecho’ breakout is clear.  Currently, CORN price action has retraced slightly and is testing support levels.

2020-08-19_9-20-04-CORN-Daily-4-bar-notes

In separate markets, biotech (IBB) has posted another sell, sell-short signal with this session’s new daily low (not financial advice).

Silver is reversing as expected.

Whether or not this is just the beginning of a long down move to form new lows (for SLV), is unknown.  Of course, such a position or thought is, completely opposite the consensus view.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.