Category Archives: CVNA

Carvana (short) Targets

June 18, 2025 By in CVNA 2 Comments

Gap Theory

Will Carvana close the gap, posted last Friday, the 13th?

With the caveat that anything can happen, markets tend to come back (up) for a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the case of CVNA, that ‘test’ area also corresponds to a 50%, Fibonacci retrace, as shown.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The Fibonacci Day 89 (from the February 19th, high), is marked as the red arrow and vertical line.

That day, June 26th, also corresponds to a Fibonacci 8 Days from the low just posted, this past Monday.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Did Wheels Come Off Carvana?

June 16, 2025 By in CVNA

We’re Close

Carvana could implode from here.

The question is, will it?

If CVNA, posts a new daily low tomorrow, then odds tilt toward swan-dive to the street (not advice, not a recommendation).

If not, and we’re actually in a set-up to test higher, or even post new all-time highs, then we’ll know that soon, as well.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The chart shows how well CVNA, price action is respecting the Fibonacci levels.

If there is a reversal higher, it’s either a test of the recent highs, or a ‘spring’ set-up to potential all-time highs.

No matter what, CVNA appears to be nearing some kind of ‘event’ (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Reversal or Supply?

June 14, 2025 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Prechter, Wyckoff

The Top, or Not

The past two trading days have Carvana down hard, on supply.

Is the trend still up?

What about the Fibonacci time (Day 89) correlation?

Prechter said it best, when commenting that ‘time’ follows ‘form’; meaning, the form is the most important and time, secondary.

So, at this juncture, time correlation is set aside, and we look at form.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The past (price action) is affecting the present.

Note how the resistance level from way back in late 2021, mapped directly to the present.

Based on that resistance, current action can be labeled a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Test or Not

‘Normal’ market behavior is to come back up for a test of resistance. It can happen, but it’s not required.

Recall, there’s a Fed meeting and interest rate announcement, this Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, At Support

June 12, 2025 By in CVNA 1 Comment

A Rally, From Here …

The chart segment at left, shows CVNA, testing support; ready to break lower or rally higher.

If there’s a rally, we’re still on track for the next Fibonacci projection: The 261.8%, as shown.

At this point, there has been no new weekly low (below 316.41), so the probabilities favor continued upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall from this update, if price action makes it to the upper Fib level, it will be all-time highs for CVNA.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Bounces At Trend

June 9, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX 1 Comment

Grinding Higher, To Target(s)

Carvana could reverse right here and now. Anything can happen.

With that said, when looking at the chart, Carvana continues to grind higher to the next Fibonacci target(s).

We’re talking about targets (plural) because CVNA, price action’s exhibiting both time and distance characteristics, presented in the last update, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

If the rally continues and makes it to target at ‘Day 89’, it will be all-time highs for CVNA.

Hitting all-time-highs, think of the hysteria; exactly what would be needed to look for a short opportunity (not advice not a recommendation).

All the while, competitor CarMax, continues trending, lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, CarMax, to Rally?

May 30, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX 1 Comment

Reading The Tape

Rally? … Well, sort of for CarMax, and maybe for real, for Carvana (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since CarMax is the laggard, we’ll leave it alone for now and instead, focus on Carvana.

The last update said this (emphasis added):

“Prices are either congesting for a sustained launch higher or preparing to reverse.

So far, Carvana has refused to reverse.

Important to note, the disturbing Fibonacci time correlation. ‘Disturbing’, because we still have the fundamentals in play, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

It looks unbelievable, but there it is.

Note how perfectly CVNA, is respecting Fibonacci levels and time correlation(s).

We’re in the pre-market as of this post (8:54 a.m., EST) and CVNA, is trading slightly lower.

If we get sideways action today, then Monday June 2nd, is the contact point with the trend as shown.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sentiment … Volume … Price

May 24, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-03, CVNA-25-04, Michael Bordenaro, Positions Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Typical Phases of Reversal

Of course, it’s not obvious until it is, and then, it’s too late.

For Carvana, we definitely have the sentiment with the last earnings release.

A stellar quarter, but the future, not so much.

In just over two-weeks since then, bond prices are lower, rates higher and threatening to completely unravel, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

Let’s put our recent (short) positioning activity into perspective.

That tiny little ‘blip’, at the far right, is where we’ve been attempting to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The area is expanded, below.

Prices are either congesting for a sustained launch higher or preparing to reverse.

That puts us at, The Danger Point®

Note that volume is contracting with Friday’s close, below the prior tops.

We have ‘sentiment’, now ‘volume’, then (maybe) price.

Positioning

Friday’s close could have been that ‘price’ part of the equation. We’ll see in the coming week.

The last update said, if there was buoyancy, CVNA-25-03, may be exited; that’s what happened.

Then, right at the close, another short: CVNA-25-04, with a stop near the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Sweats The ‘Test’

May 23, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-03, Positions 1 Comment

Testing The Break

Yesterday, Carvana launched into a test of its trend break, shown in Wednesday’s update, link here.

This morning’s pre-market action is ever-so-slightly lower (7:32 a.m., EST); we’ll have to see what happens next.

If yesterday’s high holds, Carvana is posting lower highs, and lower lows, the definition of a downtrend.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The stop for (short) CVNA-25-03, remains at 306.98.

However, if we have continued buoyancy during this session, there may be a discretionary exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hits The Wall

May 21, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, CVNA-25-02, CVNA-25-03, Hindenburg, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

New Daily Low

Carvana’s down – 2.53%, at 10:21 a.m., EST.

The new daily low confirms we have some kind of top; maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s also been a trendline break. A trend in-effect, for over a month.

Lastly, as we’ll see below, CVNA, has been in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position for the past five trading days.

Not only that, but we also have a repeating set-up, seen many times in the markets, detailed here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Let’s not forget the ‘unique’ fundamentals, link here.

Positioning

Those on this site for the past two weeks, have seen (in real time) several attempts to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last trade, CVNA-25-02, was stopped out early Monday, at 304.52.

Reviewing the price action, CVNA had posted a minor spring-to-up-thrust.

The prior session’s low and high were penetrated.

Once that was observed, no hesitation; re-position short (CVNA-25-03) with new stop at that day’s high 306.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s where we are now.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 18, 2025 By in Bonds, CVNA, CVNA-25-02, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, ZeroHedge

USA, Credit Rating Downgrade

Providing fuel to the interest rate fire of yesterday’s post, we have this and this. Website link here.

Adding to that, is the ‘big picture’ on US debt, i.e., it’s “unsustainable”, link here.

The strategy on the debt, is to have the situation (known) in the background; so, when things really implode, one is not caught ‘off guard’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

For example, what’s going to happen to ‘rate’ related commerce (like auto sales) if interest rates launch higher?

Short Covering

Short covering on a mass scale is not a bull market phenomenon.

In the past week or so, we’ve had another near record amount of buying, links here and here.

All Quiet

As of this post (7:45 p.m., EST), the markets are holding steady.

The only position open, is short Carvana CVNA-25-02, with a stop, nearly hit on Friday, at 304.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279