Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re about three-hours into the Sunday overnight session and here’s what’s happening, and what’s not.
Both gold and silver are holding steady; oil, has opened gap-down, trading lower by -3.4%.
Yesterday’s update showed the oil patch to be ‘exceptionally’ weak. The Sunday night open, is confirming that assessment (not advice, not a recommendation).
Market Directed Action
The market itself tells us where to go for opportunity.
At this point, it’s telling us to focus on the oil sector.
Looking at the futures contract, CLM25, there’s not a single major gap that has not been filled or nearly filled.
That tells us, probabilities point to some kind of upward move (to close the gap) which in turn, tells us to monitor the sector (ETF) index, XOP.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
All three index ETFs, GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, posting lower, with the silver miners down the most.
The lower action couples with lower silver (SLV) and nearly lower gold (GLD).
For Junior Miners GDXJ, as of this post (12:28 p.m., EST), it’s showing ‘outside down’.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
It’s important to note, yesterday’s update said there would (likely) be an attempt to move higher.
That’s what happened; then, price action reversed.
The chart shows how short position, JDST-25-10, is being managed. Lowering the stop (higher for JDST) in the direction of the trade (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note, work has already been done on potential, significant reversal for gold and on-going, languishing of silver: Links here, here, here, here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Well, it might happen (eventually), but not today.
With today’s GLD, gap-down reversal (dollar higher), the press is gasping, groping for direction as the Chinese of all people are selling in huge amounts, links here and here.
Weren’t they just recently buying in massive quantities?
Behind all the hype and hyperbole, the potential for (a gold) reversal was identified ahead of time, links here and here.
With that said, let’s review how this site positioned itself for today’s excitement.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
The current short position, JDST-25-10, was opened April 25th, then doubled on the 28th (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’ve penetrated support.
Technically speaking, that puts GDXJ, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. An attempt to move higher from here, is ‘normal’ market behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
A nuance in price action can have (significant) meaning or be obliterated at the next session.
It’s no secret the dollar, gold, and the miners, are all at extremes.
The dollar is down, gold is stretched in a potential blow-off, and miners (GDXJ), just posted action that may be important (not advice, not a recommendation).
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
The last two days have printed a low of 60.13, but this is not the low of Wednesday, the 23rd. That low is 60.05, below the last two day’s lows.
Why is that important?
The last two days have not made new daily lows, so have not created a potential price action reversal (pushing below 60.05, and reversing).
We can also see, today’s bounce is to 23.6%, while last Thursday’s bounce was to 38.2%.
This all may mean something or not.
With the extremes noted at the outset, it may not take long to find out if the distinctions are important (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s been a wild ride for gold, silver, and the miners.
This week, gold (GLD) posted a weekly reversal bar as did senior and junior miners, GDX, GDXJ.
Silver miners SILJ, posted an up-thrust reversal after meeting the target identified in this update.
For over a year, this site, if not outright negative on silver (SLV), has at least been ‘non-bullish’ as the metal can’t seem to get out of its own way.
So far, nothing has changed on that front (not advice, not a recommendation).
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
With gold posting what looks to be a typical commodity blow-off top, it leaves the miners in a potentially vulnerable position (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Bear markets are not (always) prices going straight down, a la 1987.
Bear markets are ‘price destruction’; a series of ups and downs that effectively drain (whipsaw) the typical market account.
The last two weeks have seen record breaking extremes; the latest being this update, indicating the market posted the largest volume ever recorded.
Dodging Bullets
A case in point, this site’s narrow miss on having a huge gain (LABD-25-06, short biotech) being completely obliterated in last week’s largest short squeeze, ever.
It’s (almost) a ‘no-brainer’, this type of market behavior is not bullish (not advice, not a recommendation).
Then, The Propaganda
If it’s not dodging bullets, it’s sifting through the propaganda, half-truths, and outright lies.
The latest of these, (could be) ‘China dumping dollars’ and other ‘collapse’ narratives.
There’s volatility for sure. That’s what bear markets are about. However, this link might help mitigate the hysteria around the ‘It’s all blowing up’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).
In the above link, how it really works, time stamp: 17:58
So, here we are. What’s next?
Gold & Silver, Update
Even though both gold (GLD), and silver (SLV), are trading lower as of this post (12:52 p.m., EST), the Junior Miners GDXJ, posted a new daily high, thus, short JDST-25-09, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).
Today’s activity does point to a new potential (developing) set-up, this time, silver miners SILJ.
Silver Miners SILJ, Daily
The set-up (spring-to-up-thrust) may develop from here, or it could diffuse into chaos.
It remains a possibility, until price action itself says, ‘no’.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
To answer that question, or at least look at the probabilities, let’s step away from the breathless, me-too herd, and see what’s really going on.
Silver, One Year Later
Before we get to what the crowd’s doing now, as a reminder, last year at this time (the crowd said), silver was supposed to be launching into a hyperinflationary breakout.
Remember that? Well, it didn’t happen. 🙂
This site posted for months, price action itself (SLV) indicated the probabilities were low for a sustained breakout, starting with this link.
However, there are times when the masses are correct. Is this one of those times?
Let’s take a look.
First, The Hysteria
To get a gage on what’s going on, we have a sample of the current mind-set, listed below.
‘Sell America’ Trade Sparks Gold-Rush, Dollar Crush As US Bond Yields Surge Most In 43 Years, link here.
Gold Euphoria, Bond Mayhem, Dollar Disgrace, link here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 