Gold … Bulls & Bears, Fight It Out

… And, In This Corner …

The fight is on.

Pre-market action in miners GDX, shows a slightly higher open with inverse fund DUST below yesterday’s low.

Is the short set-up busted?

In the markets, anything can happen but we don’t know who’s really in control … yet.

Even as the dollar powers higher, gold bulls could overpower deflationary conditions pushing gold and the mining sector up as well.

To do that, they’re going to need to overcome some significant resistance obstacles.

Let’s take a look at just a couple.

Senior Miners GDX

The un-marked chart:

The mark-up:

The mark-up shows the first two layers of resistance. The blue line is the Up-thrust (potential short) condition.

The dashed black line is not so easily discernable. It was formed way back in late July and early August.

The next two charts zoom into those areas of interest; providing evidence, getting above these levels may require a sustained effort by the bulls:

Summary:

The ‘inflation’ news is already out.

Price action in today’s session may let us know if we’re in a drawn out fight lasting day to weeks; or will the bulls reach exhaustion during the session.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Sellers Exhausted ?

According To The Latest Propaganda

It has to be this way.

As counter-intuitive as it sounds, for there to be a significant downside reversal in gold (GLD), the vast majority if not nearly all traders, speculators, and investors need to be on the wrong side of the trade.

Getting that crowd positioned without them realizing it, or being plain hypnotized like our asylum escapees, the gold bulls, helps get articles like this accepted by the masses.

The daily chart of gold proxy GLD, shows the potential target area for reversal.

This area has been a reversal target for months … since mid-September.

Working the markets in this way, that is, identifying a potential future condition for trend change, allows one to think about how it’s all going to go down.

Of course, consistent, incessant, propaganda along with bullish (asylum) hysteria is a must. 🙂

Just to be fair, sometimes and on a rare occasion, the crowd is right.

With that in mind, we’ll have to see how GLD price action behaves if/when it breaks through resistance.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dollar … Before The Open

What To Watch

Spring (Reversal) Position

Not every bullish set-up works.

However with the dollar, continuing sentiment is so negative along with bonds, the dollar has potential to do the unexpected; that is, go higher.

Yesterday, UUP pushed below support (and 23.6% retrace) levels.

In so doing, price action’s now in ‘spring’ (reversal) position.

Pre-market action shows UUP, trading higher; right at support that may now be resistance … maybe.

That’s where to watch.

‘No one expects the Spanish Inquisition’ … right?

The currently held belief is dollar collapse and gold to $3,000/oz.

Dollar (UUP) Analysis:

The daily chart of UUP may be painting a different scenario:

The dollar’s already in an up-trend. It just established support at the 23.6%, Fibonacci level. There was a bounce higher and then yesterday, penetration below support.

Now, in the pre-market, UUP is currently trading at 25.14 – 25.16, which is at or even above the support level.

A dollar reversal higher at this point, being a very shallow 23.6% retrace thus far, would potentially spell big trouble for gold and the miners.

Of course, no one ‘expects’ this to happen.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Think, ‘Inside The Box’

Late Session

Or … Who’s In Charge Of The News?

Answer:

The same people who came up with the tag line appearing simultaneously throughout every major corporation:

“We’re all in this together.”

Remember that?

I have an engineering buddy that founded his own muscle car performance company (think “steeroids®”) and he told me the following:

“Once you get out of the corporate world, you won’t be able to think straight for about six months to a year.”

I didn’t quite understand what he meant … that is, until I left the corporate world.

It was just as he said. Six months before the fog began to lift.

Steered To and Fro:

Each corporate directive or news story is out there for a reason. Someone (much higher up) had to decide on its creation and release.

Once out of the box, you can see (if you’re awake) just how much and how deep was/is the control.

What does all that have to do with the markets?

Well, let’s take a look at the latest case of (hyperinflation induced dollar collapse) herd behavior; the gold market.

Gold To Rally?

The gold lunatics are out again … having escaped the asylum yet one more time.

Of course, this upward bounce was predicted well in advance:

Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.

If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.

Gold and GDX, have indeed put in some kind of a rally. However, let’s see what the gold market (GLD), is saying about itself:

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

As of this post, this is how it looks.

Marking up with a tend-line gets us the following:

On a longer term perspective and if the trendline is broken, we can go back to the original idea of an up-thrust set-up:

As is typical for this site, we’ll let the bulls duke it out with the bears. We’ll wait and see if we’re at a reversal point (trend-line) or if we’re headed to up-thrust condition.

If GLD breaks the trend-line, getting back to the 170 – 171, level (up-thrust), imagine the hysteria. 🙂

Lastly, Biotech (LABD):

First: Did we exit LABD?

Answer is No (not advice, not a recommendation)

Second: Why?

The price action thrusts below support that have been reported in prior posts were indeed spring set-ups.

However, it’s obvious now, they were not THE set-up.

The chart shows LABD has met an ‘a-b-c’ measured move target.

The idealized form of an ‘a-b-c’ corrective move, is shown with the blue lines and notations:

At this juncture, wave ‘a’ net distance traveled, is equal to ‘c’ and wave ‘b’ net distance, is about 50% the length of wave ‘a’.

These measurements are typical for ‘a-b-c’.

Positioning:

My firm’s main position is still showing a good profit and we’re going to maintain short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, as with GDX being at the danger point before its rally, so too is biotech at the danger point (prior to a potential decline).

Expectations are for LABD to retrace higher from current levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Stacking’ … Strategic Error ?

Late Session

How many of our YouTube ‘stackers’ are chess players?

A quick check of three popular (randomly picked) ‘stacking’ YouTubers, has one showing his intro with a pile of silver being stacked under the floor.

The other has ‘trinkets’ on her desk and supposed collectibles behind her.

The other has gone as far to say, the reason gold and silver are not going higher, is because of the public itself.

No overt reference to chess or any reference to chess play as a means of addressing market conditions.

They may indeed have knowledge but they’re not showing it as a matter of course.

If memory serves, one of Richard Denis’ interview questions to his potential ‘Turtle’ trader(s) was whether he (she) played chess.

Take look at the host site’s business logo (Three Ten Trading, LLC) and we’ll leave the discussion there.

It’s the author’s opinion, the ‘stacker’ sites are in the business of getting more business; not analyzing the markets with any high level of thought or seriousness.

However, they might have a purpose.

It’s possible, they fulfill the ‘bread and circuses’ void that’s the hallmark of an empire’s collapse; which brings us to the situation at hand.

This ‘collapse’ we’re in, is a process not an event.

As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder.

The players on this global chess board are making their moves and then counter moves.

Case in point is Southwest Airlines cancellations and shutdown.

Southwest Airlines:

The company has made its move.

The employees countered with their move. Perhaps even more importantly, they did it with bravery.

It’s likely, a large part of them, if not all (who are not showing up for work) will eventually be terminated.

It’s also reasonable to think when they made their move, they understood full well, the potential (termination) outcome.

Economic Shutdown:

As ZeroHedge reports, what if more corporations experience similar (employee walk-out) events?

What if it’s a mass exodus?

Is anybody really ready to walk or ride their bike … even a horse, to work because there’s no fuel at the gas station?

If there’s no fuel, there are no deliveries of any kind.

A check of the Home Depot, in this area has it relatively stocked in the garden section.

However, from a personal standpoint, after checking the local Tractor Supply, there’s no Jobe’s (organic) fertilizer to be found at either site (save the one torn bag at Home Depot).

The shelves are empty … for that item at least.

Mass Psychological Shift

Remember our example of herd behavior? That it can turn on a dime; doing it instantly across thousands of miles?

Storable food is running low. What about seeds and fertilizer?

Genesis 41

What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?

Suppose they collectively decide (rightly or wrongly), the ‘stackers’ are just another herd of followers.

That it was all yet another lie; a diversion away from the real problem.

Silver and gold are great if you already have it.

However, this site’s sticking to the Biblical, Genesis 41, world view.

That is, corn and grain (food) come first. Then, gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Remember, Joseph was paid first (for grain) with money (i.e., the silver stack).

When the money was exhausted, livestock was used.

When that ran out, the people sold themselves into slavery to obtain food.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

It’s Your Fault !

‘You’re The Problem’

Here’s one guy that finally figured out gold’s not moving higher as expected (as he has been touting) in anticipation of ‘rampant’ inflation.

As a reminder, this site stated from the outset, there’s little-to-no inflation.

Prices going up are the result, in large part from the intentional destruction of the supply chain.

Why that’s happening is a topic for another time. One clue is, if you’re starving, you’ll do whatever you’re told.

However, let’s not digress.

So, what’s the reason gold (and silver) are not moving higher? Well, that’s easy:

It’s because of you!

Yes, you the ‘investor’ are the problem. You are the reason that gold and the mining stocks are not moving higher.

You can’t make this stuff up.

Since he (Schiff) ‘put it out there’, his reasons are fair game for discussion.

Performing A Public Service:

In a way, the linked article is a fantastic public service.

Just like the biotech sector intentionally euthanizing (a polite word for what’s really happening) its customer base, here we have another entity calling out its own followers as the problem.

It’s similar to the rabid, mindless, one-way (only goes up) gold bulls crying ‘it’s all rigged’, when their pathetic attempts at analysis don’t work out; we now have another entity citing YOU as the problem when the forecasts fall flat.

This is yet another so-called financial source that can be permanently crossed off the watch list.

Brutal, But Beneficial:

Admittedly, the ‘tone’ of the posts on this site are not for everyone.

Even mild-mannered Dan at I Allegedly, finds himself responding to snowflakes that complain about his ‘get ready’ posts.

There’s good reason why the average are so ignorant.

For those who were actually listening in middle-school, the history books conveniently leave out the part where millions of Americans died of starvation during the Great Depression.

No pictures of emaciated bodies. Nothing.

With what’s coming, we’re likely headed for mass casualties in one form or another. The financial community refuses (from what I’ve seen) to discuss this up-coming event.

For example:

If you’re still using a ‘financial advisor’ and they’re not talking about, or don’t know about the elephant, do you really want to be (paying for and) taking direction from someone who’s that lazy, fearful, or ignorant?

Prechter, said it himself when he stated, the next mega bear market’s going to wipe out the ‘wealth management’ industry.

We may be on the cusp of that now.

Not Advice:

With that said, this site does not, and will not give financial advice.

Each person has his (her) own situation in life. You are the one to decide on your next direction or action.

What this site does do, is attempt to provide analysis and supporting price action data on what’s really going on.

What’s the market saying about itself?

If you’re still reading, that was a very long intro to get to our topic for the day: Gold miners, GDX.

Wyckoff Analysis: Senior Miners, GDX

What we see from the weekly chart is straightforward.

GDX, has been channeling lower for about a year:

The next chart shows we’ve penetrated support and are now testing the underside.

Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.

If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.

In my view, the participants in this sector are borderline delusional, if not completely insane.

They disregard what the market’s actually doing; holding to a (so far, for years now) unverified belief that ‘$10,000/oz gold, is just around the corner.’

It could very well be … but only after the (possibly, soon to be) starving stackers have sold off their hoard to buy food.

One has to wrap their mind around the fact, we’re being subjected to a long term diabolical plan.

Thinking and acting with that long game in mind (in my view) provides at least a hope for not only survival, but positioning to prosper during the on-going collapse.

Lastly, here’s a link to a previous analysis on GDX.

Decide for yourself whether or not that information provided a service and/or was useful and timely.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Three In A Row

Early Session

It’s Official:

Down, Three Quarters In A Row

No other major index has three consecutive quarters lower.

Even the gold miners (GDX, GDXJ), while in a bear market, still had an up quarter with the one ending June 30th, this year.

So, what does this mean?

Slow At First. Then, All At Once:

The first answer is the obvious one; the air is slowly but steadily (thus far) coming out of this sector.

The second answer is more complicated.

As discussed yesterday, we’ve seen the phenomenon of instantaneous focus shift in disparate parties … a well documented and repeated occurrence in the animal kingdom.

We could see a similar thing with biotech or the markets overall.

As Dan from I Allegedly reported yesterday, the container ship pile-up off the coast and slow unloading is intentional.

The resulting shortages are intentional.

The corresponding price rises (camouflaged as ‘inflation’ by the media), are intentional.

It’s possible (speculation) that by having prices go up and the media touting it as inflation, the public, pile into the corresponding sectors such as gold, silver and the miners … all of which have been heading lower.

More importantly, what this crowd does NOT do, is go the other direction; sell and sell short, stockpile food, water, medicine, tools, hardware, consumables, protection, backup power.

Of course, some of them are.

However, just in my neighborhood as I look around and down the street, there are fifteen houses that are visible.

I know for a fact, only two (this residence and the neighbor across the street) have been, and are, taking preparatory action: That equates to 13%.

Driving through the neighborhood to get to a main road, there are about another 40 homes.

I can see, none of them have an operation garden (or livestock) of any kind: That makes our ‘prep’ percentage go down to 3.6.%.

The real percentage (for the entire neighborhood) may be close to 0.5%, or less.

This is probably a typical number but your mileage may vary.

Instantaneous Shift:

That low percentage (0.5%), gives a clue to how vicious a down-draft could be once everyone realizes they’ve been had.

Couple that with our ‘elephant’ from yesterday, and it may be absolute insanity.

All of which, brings us to the chart of biotech (SPBIO).

SPBIO Analysis:

Not only was it a down quarter but on a monthly and weekly basis, SPBIO has posted reversal and continuation (down) bars respectively.

The unmarked monthly chart of SPBIO, is below:

The next two charts show monthly reversal bars and then a Fibonacci projection to lower levels.

The projection was taken from the all time high on February 9th, this year, to the intermediate low, May 11th; then the counter-trend pivot high on June 28th.

It’s interesting to note; the monthly reversal bars are Fibonacci 8-months apart.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Changes Character

Mid Session

Another Bell Rings

Gold (GLD) was on track to continue higher into a potential up-thrust … right up to yesterday.

That’s when the character of price action changed.

Action suddenly had a down day with no buoyancy. That was the clue something else is at work.

Today, we saw the result.

At this juncture, with world events picking up yet again, we probably just entered or are about to enter a deflation impulse.

Summary:

The gold and mining sector continues to be chocked full of delusional bulls and rabid hyper-inflationists.

Just take a cursory look at YouTube sites that continue to ‘stack’. As repeated many times over the past year the ‘hyperinflation’ narrative is just not happening.

Food price increases along with fuel and shipping, are all related to a controlled demolition of the supply chain.

It’s not hyper-inflation.

It really does not take much research effort to figure that part out.

If there is a trade here, we’re going to leave it (not advice, not a recommendation) and just watch to see where the carnage goes.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Pushes Higher

Fibonacci Order No Longer

It didn’t take long for the ordered price action discussed in the last update to break down.

Action in both gold (GLD) and GDX pushed through their own resistance levels.

During Friday’s session, all GDX short positions were closed out (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, what’s next?

If we look at the price action of gold (GLD) we see a potential set-up in progress.

That set-up is the phenomenon of repeating ‘spring to up-thrust’

The daily chart of GLD shows its been in a spring generated rally. As of the close Friday it’s at well defined resistance.

Price action determines market (trading) action. So we’ll see if GLD breaks out decisively to the upside or breaks out and stalls.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Signs of Order

After The Close

Fibonacci Width Channel

Fibonacci Sequence On Trend

Adhering to Fibonacci time sequencing does not guarantee anything.

What it does tell us in the case of GDX (daily) below, is that price action’s exhibiting order.

Fibonacci width on the GDX trading channel can be seen here.

Order is what usually comes before dis-order 🙂

It won’t take much force either way, to negate the down-channel set up; or allow gold and the miners to descend into bear market chaos.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.