Category Archives: Gold & Silver

Gold Down … China Sells

May 1, 2025 By in China, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SILJ, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up

Wasn’t gold (GLD) going to launch ever higher in some kind of dollar-destruction, de-dollarization, worldwide meltdown?

Well, it might happen (eventually), but not today.

With today’s GLD, gap-down reversal (dollar higher), the press is gasping, groping for direction as the Chinese of all people are selling in huge amounts, links here and here.

Weren’t they just recently buying in massive quantities?

Behind all the hype and hyperbole, the potential for (a gold) reversal was identified ahead of time, links here and here.

With that said, let’s review how this site positioned itself for today’s excitement.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The current short position, JDST-25-10, was opened April 25th, then doubled on the 28th (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve penetrated support.

Technically speaking, that puts GDXJ, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. An attempt to move higher from here, is ‘normal’ market behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Short’ Bounce

April 28, 2025 By in Dollar, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, UUP 1 Comment

Nuance, In The Retrace

A nuance in price action can have (significant) meaning or be obliterated at the next session.

It’s no secret the dollar, gold, and the miners, are all at extremes.

The dollar is down, gold is stretched in a potential blow-off, and miners (GDXJ), just posted action that may be important (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The last two days have printed a low of 60.13, but this is not the low of Wednesday, the 23rd. That low is 60.05, below the last two day’s lows.

Why is that important?

The last two days have not made new daily lows, so have not created a potential price action reversal (pushing below 60.05, and reversing).

We can also see, today’s bounce is to 23.6%, while last Thursday’s bounce was to 38.2%.

This all may mean something or not.

With the extremes noted at the outset, it may not take long to find out if the distinctions are important (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

April 27, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, Trump, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Gold & Silver, Update

We’re just about two and a half hours into the Sunday, overnight session.

Once again, it’s not necessarily about ‘what’s happening’, but ‘what’s not happening’.

Both Gold and Siver June contracts, GDM 25 and SIM25 respectively, are trading lower but have not made a new daily low … yet.

As of this post, silver is closer to a new daily low than gold.

The 24-Hour Market

As a reminder, some equities and ETFs are now essentially trading 24-hours a day (five days a week).

Leveraged Inverse Fund (for GDX), DUST is one of them.

The close on Friday for DUST, was 29.91. It’s now at 29.94, indicating some slight upward pressure (down on GDX).

It may be the immediate (upward) pressure on gold has been mitigated by this report (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s Parabolic Top

April 26, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SILJ, SLV, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Mass Liquidations?

During gold’s (GLD) way to the top, or potential top, it has posted gap-higher, after gap-higher.

That is, until now.

This past week, it has come down to fill one of the gaps.

Is this the start of other downside fills?

Before we look at the chart of GLD, let’s review a prior commodity blow-off top.

We’ll chose silver (SLV), for this example.

Silver SLV, 3-Day

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

First, this is what a commodity blow-off looks like.

Second, once this happens with volume, there’s been a significant ‘changing of hands’; it takes a long time to recover.

In fact, here we are, fourteen years later and silver SLV, has yet to reach the levels of early May 2011.

Prices are still far below, even with non-stop propaganda, experts, and grifters cheering it on.

Now, we’ll put up the chart of gold GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The last time GLD posted a Force Index of 1.8B, was back in 2011, just before the last major top.

It’s important to note, the huge reading in Force Index, did not come at the exact top. It came before the top.

We’re in a similar situation. The massive Force Index reading has already posted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, two weeks later, we have near record liquidations in the GLD, ETF, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Are The Miners Exhausted?

April 25, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SLV 1 Comment

We’re About To Find Out

It’s been a wild ride for gold, silver, and the miners.

This week, gold (GLD) posted a weekly reversal bar as did senior and junior miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Silver miners SILJ, posted an up-thrust reversal after meeting the target identified in this update.

For over a year, this site, if not outright negative on silver (SLV), has at least been ‘non-bullish’ as the metal can’t seem to get out of its own way.

So far, nothing has changed on that front (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

With gold posting what looks to be a typical commodity blow-off top, it leaves the miners in a potentially vulnerable position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Off-The-Chart

April 22, 2025 By in GLD, GLL, Gold & Silver 1 Comment

It’s The Inverse GLL

Are the professional traders telling us, ‘This is it’?

We’re scarcely 90-minutes into the session and it’s the Inverse Gold Fund GLL, that’s off the chart.

Off the chart, with unprecedented volume.

Leveraged Inverse Gold, GLL, Daily

At 15.5 million shares (currently) and GLL price of (approx.) 10.5, it represents and exchange of over $160 million; the day is just getting started.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bear Market = Wealth Transfer

April 14, 2025 By in 1987, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-09, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist Tags: , , , 1 Comment

The ‘Extraction’ Process

Bear markets are not (always) prices going straight down, a la 1987.

Bear markets are ‘price destruction’; a series of ups and downs that effectively drain (whipsaw) the typical market account.

The last two weeks have seen record breaking extremes; the latest being this update, indicating the market posted the largest volume ever recorded.

Dodging Bullets

A case in point, this site’s narrow miss on having a huge gain (LABD-25-06, short biotech) being completely obliterated in last week’s largest short squeeze, ever.

It’s (almost) a ‘no-brainer’, this type of market behavior is not bullish (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, The Propaganda

If it’s not dodging bullets, it’s sifting through the propaganda, half-truths, and outright lies.

The latest of these, (could be) ‘China dumping dollars’ and other ‘collapse’ narratives.

There’s volatility for sure. That’s what bear markets are about. However, this link might help mitigate the hysteria around the ‘It’s all blowing up’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the above link, how it really works, time stamp: 17:58

So, here we are. What’s next?

Gold & Silver, Update

Even though both gold (GLD), and silver (SLV), are trading lower as of this post (12:52 p.m., EST), the Junior Miners GDXJ, posted a new daily high, thus, short JDST-25-09, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s activity does point to a new potential (developing) set-up, this time, silver miners SILJ.

Silver Miners SILJ, Daily

The set-up (spring-to-up-thrust) may develop from here, or it could diffuse into chaos.

It remains a possibility, until price action itself says, ‘no’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

April 13, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, JDST, JDST-25-09, Positions, SLV

Gold & Silver, Update

We’re about two hours into the overnight session.

Gold (GCM25) is holding steady with a marginal decline.

Silver (SIK25) has posted a characteristic opening ‘spike’ reversal (5-minute bar), threatening to move lower.

At this juncture, the important part, is what’s not happening.

That is, neither metal has had a (significant) gap-higher open; they are not continuing their unabated advances.

For silver, we’re going to update the SLV, ETF, chart.

Silver SLV, Daily

As of this post, the (futures equivalent) ETF close of last Friday (29.19), is holding.

Trading is still at the 61.8%, Fibonacci retrace.

From a positioning standpoint, this sector (precious metals) is already held short via the Junior’s leveraged inverse JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s Breathless Break … Higher

April 12, 2025 By in David Weis, Dr. Elder, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-09, Positions, SLV, ZeroHedge Tags: , , ,

Was Friday, The Last Gasp?

Another market, stretched to the extreme.

Will gold (GLD) pause or even reverse?

To answer that question, or at least look at the probabilities, let’s step away from the breathless, me-too herd, and see what’s really going on.

Silver, One Year Later

Before we get to what the crowd’s doing now, as a reminder, last year at this time (the crowd said), silver was supposed to be launching into a hyperinflationary breakout.

Remember that? Well, it didn’t happen. 🙂

This site posted for months, price action itself (SLV) indicated the probabilities were low for a sustained breakout, starting with this link.

However, there are times when the masses are correct. Is this one of those times?

Let’s take a look.

First, The Hysteria

To get a gage on what’s going on, we have a sample of the current mind-set, listed below.

‘Sell America’ Trade Sparks Gold-Rush, Dollar Crush As US Bond Yields Surge Most In 43 Years, link here.

Gold Euphoria, Bond Mayhem, Dollar Disgrace, link here.

The Asymmetric Gold Trade, link here.

Markets Live: Gold & Bitcoin Soar As ‘Sell America’ Trade Escalates, link here.

Citi’s Former Global Strat Head: Gold More Room To Run, link here.

Futures Flat, Gold Soars, Dollar Crashes After China Hikes US Tariffs To 125%, link here.

Gold Hits Record High As Dollar Dumps; Stocks & Commodities Remain ‘Tariff-ied’, link here.

Now, Reality, The Price Action

As with silver (SLV), we’re going to look at the characteristics of the gold (GLD) market to determine what’s likely to happen next.

Gold GLD, Daily Close

As David Weis used to say: “What do you see?”

The lower panel is Elder’s ‘Force Index’.

What we can see is that GLD, has met the characteristics, the set-up, that in the past resulted in a reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hysteria on Steroids

Could gold go even higher from here?

Absolutely. Anything can happen.

When looking at the situation rationally, is this the spot where price action could stall, or even reverse?

As with silver, the price action itself says, conditions are in place for that potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … In … Mid … Air

April 11, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-09, Positions, SLV

Exhaustion Gap?

For Junior Miners GDXJ, it’s either a sustained breakout higher, or an exhaustion gap; years in the making.

As can be seen in the chart, we’re leaning towards exhaustion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Either way, the situation (as of 11:15 a.m., EST) for both bulls and bears, is at The Danger Point®

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

We’re in mid-air.

The MACD, itself says, from a momentum standpoint, the current position is weak.

From a positioning standpoint, there have been several interations to short this sector.

As can be seen in the side bar, another short, JDST-25-09, is now open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on price action, more updates to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279