Category Archives: LABD-24-19

Biotech Bulls … Exhausted

October 26, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-18, LABD-24-19, LABD-24-20, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , ,

Downside Leader?

Biotech XBI, spent the last three months hitting resistance, going nowhere.

That doesn’t mean there weren’t trading opportunities; there were but the big (expected) break to the downside never came … that is, until now, maybe. 🙂

Looking at the weekly chart, it’s completely different from the current, topping, on-going A.I. mania.

Biotech reached its all-time high, years ago.

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

The sector’s been retracing to Fibonacci 38.2%, since late February, this year.

Moving in closer to the daily, the last three (short) trades in the sector are noted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

For detail on how and why trades were selected, click on the side bar for that trade number.

Note: We have a repeating pattern (between green lines) of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

The Week Ahead

Anything can happen.

With that said, ‘normal’ market behavior would be a ‘blip’ upward to test resistance, the black line.

However, there’s no requirement to do so.

If price action gets above Friday’s high, obviously it’s time to exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Reversal

October 3, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-24-05, Interest Rates, IYR, LABD, LABD-24-19, Real Estate, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Sudden Turn

Watch for failed moves.

When an apparent move fails, it tells you the other side’s exhausted.

That’s when the sharks move in.

It could be happening to IYR, right now; yesterday’s ‘reversal’ bar, has failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on the sector, link here gave a head’s up, a reversal appeared likely.

Now, we have more confirmation with the failed move shown below.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Yesterday, IYR, had penetrated support (blue line) and was in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That spring (set-up) has failed.

Now, it gets interesting.

Bonds (TLT) continue lower with rates continuing higher; the exact opposite of what the public thinks is ‘supposed’ to happen.

Positioning

Naturally, with the above conditions a short was opened DRV-24-05, with the stop at DRV’s session low @ 23.89 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, the short on XBI (LABD-24-19) is not performing as expected. Today is lower but there’s no new daily low (as of 11:55 a.m., EST).

Position was exited with a loss of – 2.48%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Set-Up, Part II

October 2, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-19, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Testing Trendline

Biotech never made it to the 99.75-area from the last update.

However, it did post an up-thrust, topping out at 99.65, just 0.10-pts from target.

This is how it is … for the scientific types, good luck with calculating where the market ‘should’ go. 🙂

Evidently, getting within 0.10-points from a 38.2% retrace was ‘good enough’; XBI reversed from there.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If this is a trendline of some importance, we’re still in the very early stages (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen and XBI, could close higher.

A new daily low was posted early in the session and price action is currently attempting to ‘spring’ off that low.

Positioning

As noted, a short is open (LABD-24-19); it may be a ‘day trade’ if XBI does not close lower for the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, based on price action, SOXS-24-17, was closed with a 13.1%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279