Category Archives: Livermore

Silver … Targets and Projections

December 13, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Livermore, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Does The ‘Correction’, Start Now?

More than a few ‘engineering’ types trading the market, will talk about getting over the need to know, ‘why’.

Why does Fibonacci work?

Why does price action alternate?

Why is the market moving, or not moving; why, why, why?

Marsha, Marsha, Marsha

The media of course, wants everyone to focus on why.

If you’re focused on why, then you’re at least two steps removed from the truth.

Asking the wrong question (why) and then, looking for the wrong answer.

Both Livermore and Wyckoff, did not concern themselves with ‘why’ … but ‘what’?

With that said, let’s take a look at ‘what’s’ going on with silver, SLV.

Silver SLV, Daily Close

Shown, are the lows of August 2020 to last Friday’s close.

A whole week of updates (maybe more) could be spent on this one chart: there’s that much going on.

We have Wyckoff springs, up-thrusts, price action alternation, Fibonacci levels, time correlations, volume spikes, and the list goes on.

For today however, the main take-away is that Friday was outside-down (key reversal) on heavy volume.

That reversal (so far) took place at the exact 261.8%, Fibonacci projection (not advice, not a recommendation).

As said in yesterday’s update, we could also be in a new paradigm where silver just keeps on going.

Next upside Fibonacci projection (423.6%) is near 83.50.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another Wedge … Expedia

November 29, 2025 By in 1907, APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, CVNA-25-17, EBAY, EBAY-25-01, Ed Dowd, EXPE, EXPE-25-01, Livermore, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, SPOT, TEL, Terminating Wedge, UBER, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Ending Moves’

Back in the day, Jesse Livermore nearly went bust attempting to short the downside of what became, The Panic of 1907.

Stopped out time and again, he finally (according to Wyckoff) hawked his car to rase capital.

Form nearly broke, to closing out short trades on October 24th 1907, net profit over $1-milllion.

With that, we have a strategic picture, in focus.

During a recent interview, Ed Dowd discussed the +35.95% gap (and close) on Oracle, as a result of ‘projections‘.

The take-away (from him) was these types of moves are ‘ending moves’, not the beginning of a new bull run.

Since then, price action has fully retraced.

ORCL, is currently down a whopping -41.6%, from its all-time highs. Hardly a bull market.

We’ve presented eBay in a similar position.

Carvana, launched itself above resistance at Friday’s close. In so doing, got itself into another wedge.

Now we have Expedia, looking eerily similar (not advice, not a recommendation).

Like eBay, we’ll start with the long term, quarterly chart.

Expedia EXPE, Quarterly

The latest earnings release pushed EXPE up, contacting the upper trendline.

A gap higher and close of +17.55%, in one day.

EXPE has since backed off the all-time high; currently down about -8.5%.

Edge of The Wedge

The following is a partial list of tickers either forming a (monthly) terminating wedge, or have broken out to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)

APP, CARR, CDNS, CVNA, EBAY, EXPE, NFLX, NVDA, SPOT, TEL, UBER

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Tricolor ‘Canary’

September 27, 2025 By in Livermore

Harbinger of Future Implosions?

One-minute, Tricolor Auto is Triple AAA rated.

The next minute, it’s bankrupt, in Chapter 7 (liquidation) along with fraud allegations.

Livermore said it himself, ‘surprises tend to come in the direction of trend’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Car Market Implosion

August 30, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-12, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Hit on Both Sides

From a $100,000 Jeep Grand Wagoneer to no-bids on used cars at auction, the car market’s getting hit from both sides.

While Carvana rival CarMax, reached all-time highs long ago, now down -60.34%, for whatever reason, Carvana remains a ‘mystery’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The horizontal line is the prior all-time high (376.83), set way back on August 10th, of 2021.

Up-thrust close high, to test close high, Fibonacci 21-Days.

From August 20th low, to test print high (Friday), Fibonacci 8-Days, putting CVNA, at 61.8%, retrace (not shown).

Positioning

Friday’s new daily low was the signal to go short. However, that short was not entered immediately.

Instead, we wait. The objective is to minimize the risk as much as possible.

Late in the session, 3:57 p.m., EST, short opened at 371.6412, with stop at the session high (378.54), for total ‘risk’ of 6.90-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Test & Reverse

August 19, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-11, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

On A Closing Basis

The goings-on, in the car market, new or used, are unprecedented, link here.

The video is clear; the market has already imploded.

Carmax (KMX) seems to be an accurate reflection of that, with it being down over -62%, from its all-time highs.

However, for some mysterious reason that’s (almost) sure to come out later, Carvana, is only down only -17%, from its all-time highs.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

On a close basis, CVNA tested resistance, posted an up-thrust on the 18th, then reversed.

Adding to the intrigue, that up-thrust was on Fibonacci Day 13, from all-time highs.

Referring back to Livermore’s criteria, link here, if the trade meets requirements (i.e., up-thrust), then execute.

In this case, that meant to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade: CVNA-25-11, with stop at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech …

August 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-25-02

Nascent Reversal

Long or short, this is the spot where anything can happen.

Friday’s action in XBI, made it Fibonacci 89 Days, from the April 9th, lows.

Today printed higher, reversed (slightly), closing lower, making this Fibonacci Week 21 (-1) from the April lows.

Trading Coach … Livermore

Getting back to trading insights from Livermore (last update), he stresses the adage, ‘If it meets requirements, then execute’.

At this point that’s the case for biotech, XBI.

Biotech Short (again)

We’re in Up-Thrust position (above resistance) have met a Fibonacci count, then printed a reversal bar; the trading action is/was to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: XBI-25-02, stop in the vicinity of today’s high (not advice, not are recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 17, 2025 By in Livermore, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Livermore’s ‘Rules’

Judging from the timestamp(s) on comments from this link and this one, for whatever reason, the ‘algorithm’ decided to just now, put these videos in the ‘in-box’.

Taken from the video at the first link, we have this:

‘Cut what’s not working’

This trading adage flies in the face of the ‘engineering’ mindset.

The engineer (generalizing) does not cut what’s not working. No, they need to know, they must know, ‘why’ it’s not working.

This type of thinking is burned in, drilled in, hammered in, during engineering school and the workplace.

If you’re design’s not working, you better know ‘why’. 🙂

That makes the typical engineer unable to handle the fact, no matter how much analysis was done, how much research, the trade’s not working.

Wyckoff said it best nearly a century ago, ‘The why always comes out later, after the fact‘.

The Media & ‘Why’

Of course, the media wants ‘investors’ to search for the ‘why’. They encourage the ‘why’, they have experts come on and discuss the ‘why’ … the ‘why’ is endless.

The result: Focus is shifted away from the truth (price action itself) to other non-productive questions.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

HOOD-Wink

August 1, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-03, Livermore, Positions 1 Comment

Is ‘Retail’ Finished for This Cycle?

The average Robinhood account size is $7,658.

For comparison, average Schwab account is $152,000.

Interactive Brokers, is larger still, $158,000.

A small account is not an indicator of acumen in itself; Livermore’s first trade was Burlington, netting him a profit of $3.12.

However, he moved on, trading size in the $millions.

With that said, let’s look at the chart.

Robinhood HOOD, Daily

It’s possible we have a trend break and trading channel.

As noted, if we’re in a channel, it’s Fibonacci 8 Days, wide.

Positioned short as HOOD-25-03, with stop at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta Stalls, after Earnings

July 12, 2025 By in Airlines, Artificial Intelligence, DAL, DAL-25-02, Livermore, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-04, WMT, WMT-25-04, Wyckoff

Straight Up, to Resistance

Delta’s latest earnings release provided an excellent opportunity for a ‘changing of hands’.

We’ll have to see what happens next, to verify that premise (not advice, not a recommendation).

In a scene that could be straight out of Livermore and Wyckoff’s observations, the big players need huge volume to enter or exit positions.

For Delta, that volume event was (potentially) last Thursday.

Delta DAL, Daily

Stright up to resistance on massive volume.

Then, the next day, a lower close.

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

As noted, we’re at the 61.8%, retrace of the entire move; January 22nd, highs, to ‘tariff panic’, April 4th, lows.

The initial wave from highs-to-lows, was ‘impulsive’.

Then, and a-b-c, ‘corrective’ wave (labeling not shown), to where we are now.

All of which, brings us to ‘positioning’

Positions

As noted, short this sector as trade DAL-25-02; stop, just above Thursday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Markets

Discretionary exit on SOXX short, SOXX-25-04, at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Maintaining Wal-Mart short, WMT-25-04, with stop lowered to 96.78 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Livermore’s Laws … Positioning

July 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Establish Full Position(s) … Early

As the ‘About‘ page says, we’re emulating trading and analysis techniques, used by Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb.

Livermore’s listed first, as he figured out through many gains and losses, he’s primarily, a strategist:

‘What’s likely to happen, in a big way?’

Wyckoff is next as the tactician, with Loeb as the focus; meaning, concentrate positions, do not ‘diversify’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incremental Entries

The potential for reversal in the semiconductor index, started with this post.

From that post, the sidebar shows an initial short, labeled as: SOXX-25-01.

Moving on to this post, Nvidia was used as a proxy for the SOXX; once again, we see SOXX-25-01, in the sidebar.

The short is active, size increased by 50%, last Thursday.

Today, price action posts a new daily low, dips below resistance in 240 – 242, area, increasing probability it’s an up-thrust (reversal).

SOXX-25-01, size increased again by 30%, and we’re done.

The amount of capital planned for the position has been fully allocated.

Set The Stop, & ‘Walk’

From this point, anything can happen.

With that said, the obvious stop location for the current position, is just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a combined entry of 242.26, getting stopped out just above 242.13, would be at break-even.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279