Category Archives: NVDA

The Power Goes Out on Nvidia

September 1, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX 1 Comment

The ‘Natives’ Have Disappeared

Just like the kid frantically waving their hand in class (and never called on), Nivida price action may be doing the same.

As proposed in previous updates, we’re looking for signs that NVDA and the SOXX, are in ‘distribution’.

Is it ready, if not already, beginning a long and sustained decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Going to a Fibonacci 8-Day chart, we have the following.

Nvidia NVDA, 8-Day

Price action has hit resistance in the 125 – 130, area.

The scary part is in the Force Index (middle panel).

The prior two price action thrusts had numerous (positive) ‘8-Day’ Force Index segments after that initial thrust.

That is, until this last move up.

After the first 8-Day Force Index segment, there are no more … it’s gone!

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Persistence

August 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-14, SOXX, Wyckoff

Like a Terrier On A Mailman’s Leg

As of 3:10 p.m., EST:

The Cliff Notes version of what’s happening with the SOXX, is this:

NVDA, has not posted a new daily high.

However, the SOXX, pushed to a marginal new daily high, stopped out the short position and now appears to be in collapse (not advice, not a recommendation).

The new daily high for the SOXX, counts as a Wyckoff Up-Thrust and reversal to the downside.

That’s where we are now.

Positioning:

The amateur never gets back in once stopped out (per Dr. Elder). I have long since passed that mental block; repositioned short again (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled as SOXS-23-14 … charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia, ‘Whack’ & ‘Back’

August 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, One Way Pockets, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Distribution On The Way Down

It was a wild ride in the after-hours session and the pre-market.

As of this post (8:31 a.m., EST), NVDA is trading down about -4 pts., at 120.70.

The SOXX, is essentially flat, less than one point lower than yesterday’s close.

So, what to do?

Distribution

If Nvidia is following the script of typical market distribution, then it’s a low probability it will make a new daily high above yesterday’s 128.33.

With that said, the action is simple (but not easy).

Since there’s a position short, SOXS-24-13, the stop has been moved as shown in the chart below (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors, Leveraged Inverse SOXS, Daily

If Nvidia is in distribution, it will be interesting to see if price action follows the script as presented over a century ago, in One Way Pockets.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, Pre-Market … Higher

August 28, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX

Not Good For The Shorts

As of 7:34 a.m., EST, The SOXX is trading unchanged to slightly higher.

From yesterdays close, with forming a minor spring set-up (shown below), today, there’s only one right answer for the shorts.

That answer: The SOXX, needs to open lower and post lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

More importantly, it can’t post a new daily high or SOXS-24-13, trade will be exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Price action is still at the edge of the lake, where anything can (easily) happen.

The SOXX, has formed a minor spring set-up but the expectation is for that set-up to fail with a lower open and lower post (not advice, not a recommendation)

Nvidia is scheduled to release earnings after the close.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

August 25th, 1987

August 26, 2024 By in 1987, 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Dow 30, NVDA, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, Uneducated Economist

All Time High (and reversal) For DJIA

Everybody seems to talk about the crash of ’87, as if it suddenly appeared out of nowhere, October 19, 1987.

Digging deeper, the crash started months earlier, at the market peak on August 25th.

One may consider today, Monday, August 26th, the 37th anniversary of that top; when by chance, we’re at another all-time high.

By now, most of us are tired of The Gong Show style prognostications:

‘Crash this’ and ‘crash that’, ‘the dollar’s going to collapse’ and there’s that! 🙂

At this point, none of those things have happened … yet.

In fact, the ‘collapse’ may actually be of a different sort this time around; posed by Uneducated Economist, link here (time stamp: 2:04).

Real & Separated

We may indeed get an ’87 or ’07, type of collapse, eventually.

Or, it may be that sectors wipe-out individually.

However, as UE points out (above, link), the ‘crash’ this time is hidden. It’s the separation of wealth from the ever more have-nots, to the haves, and have-more.

The (Biggest) Bubble

As the Dow Jones is making an historic high, possibly the biggest bubble of all time, the A.I. bubble, led by NVDA, and the SOX Index (SOXX, tracking ETF), peaked out on July 11th (not advice, not a recommendation)

When we last left the SOXX, with this update, link here, it had this to say (emphasis added):

“If we just saw a test of resistance (solid black line), then there’s only one (or a variation of one) right answer at the next session.”

“That is, SOXX, price action (by the close) to be either net sideways or down (not advice, not a recommendation).”

Well, ladies and gentlemen, that’s exactly what happened.

The SOXX, posted a new daily low, closing down -5.86-pts., or -2.51%.

Nvidia is scheduled to release earnings this Wednesday.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The A.I. Rope … Just Broke

July 17, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX, TSM, ZeroHedge

So, It Begins

SOXX, pre-market, down a solid -3.2%.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) is the primary reason with its own trading down over -5%,.

If this really is the top of the A.I. bubble, the potential (now apparent) reversal was covered well in advance, here, here, and here.

If this is not the top and there’s more to go, the SOXX would need to retrace significantly, find support and thrust energy to mount another rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: MACD indicators are bearish divergent on both daily and weekly.

Making It Up, As We Go

Of course, the press has to make up a reason for the pre-market rout. So, for today, we have this and this.

Tomorrow is a whole ‘nother story, literally 🙂

Semiconductor SOXX, Weekly

The blue arrow notes only one other time (in history) in the SOXX, where downward thrust exceeded that of week ending, April 19th.

Otherwise, we have the usual suspects: Terminating wedge, dissipating energy, Fibonacci correlations for chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Hanging By A Thread

July 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

SOXX Bulls, Lose Their Grip

For most of Friday’s session, SOXX bulls looked like they would make it.

Price action pushed up to within 1%, of a new all-time-high.

Levels threatening the A.I. reversal scenario right up until 30-minutes before the close.

Then, the air came out.

The SOXX, closed up for the day, but just under the breakout, shown in the chart below.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Along with closing below resistance (blue line), price action did so on contracting volume.

Volume contraction implies, commitment to higher prices is weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sentiment, Volume, Price

That’s the reversal construct being used on this site.

First, the sentiment, then volume, then finally, the price.

Looking at the 5-Year Weekly chart of Nvidia, we can see it playing out in real-time.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The professionals have already left the chat; storm clouds are beginning to appear.

So far, ‘Week 89’ reversal remains intact.

The Danger Point®

From an engineering standpoint, the SOXX, has met the requirements for a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

First: Price action posted an outside-down reversal (last Thursday), on increased volume and closed below established resistance.

Second: That reversal was then tested (on Friday) and did so, on contracting volume.

Third: MACD, divergences on Weekly and Daily timeframes; although near-term weekly has yet to tick lower but still (diverging) below the highs of this past March.

    Intuitively, you can feel that something’s up. The A.I. pump-n-dump set-up may have run its course.

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    The SOXX … Day 55 (+2)

    July 11, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX 1 Comment

    Margin of Error

    If you’re upside down in a diving stall, shown here, there’s no margin for error or you’re dead; literally.

    The big problem for engineers, it doesn’t work that way in the markets.

    Two days after this post, we have a potential reversal in the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Of course, the engineers have long since left the room as there was an ‘error.’; not getting the (potential) reversal exactly right.

    If the AI mania is over, that update two days ago was off by two-days; the biggest bubble in world history … at least since the South Sea Bubble.

    So, let’s move on to the chart.

    Before we get started, also note, Nvidia has not made a new (all-time) high. This update identified that reversal correctly (so far).

    Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

    As of 11:05 a.m., EST, the SOXX has posted out-side-down.

    When Fibonacci counts get longer, there is more room to be off by a few days.

    If this is the reversal for the SOXX, a two-day margin is fully acceptable (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    The SOXX … Day ’55’

    July 9, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

    New Highs & Fibonacci

    Analysis of Nivida has already shown, the leader of the semis’ being influenced by Fibonacci, link here.

    Now, we have the SOXX about to open at or near new highs.

    What you likely won’t find anywhere else, insight that today, is Fibonacci Day ’55’, from the April 19th, lows (not advice, not a recommendation)

    New highs, Day 55, daily and weekly MACD bearish divergences, potential up-thrust; ‘You make the call.’

    Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

    Pre-market action: Currently (as of 8:42 a.m., EST), trading at 260.40-ish, right at the last top high, 260.65.

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    Nvidia … Still The Leader?

    July 5, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-10, SOXX

    Setting The (Reversal) Hook

    Nvidia just posted an Up-Thrust, reversal on the daily.

    The rest of the SOXX, whistles past the graveyard.

    If one looks only at the SOXX, everything seems to be ok; it’s recovering (sort-of).

    However, leader NVDA, may be at The Danger Point®, ready to head lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Nvidia NVDA, Daily

    We’ve just had an a-b-c correction from the June 24th lows.

    That correction posted a Wyckoff Up-Thrust with yesterday’s penetration of resistance (blue line) and today’s reversal.

    Note: Both upward moves (wave ‘a’, wave ‘c’) are of equal length but are divergent in thrust energy.

    We’re at the point where anything can happen.

    However, this is the place where risk for being wrong on a short position, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279