Category Archives: Semiconductors

Hanging By A Thread

July 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

SOXX Bulls, Lose Their Grip

For most of Friday’s session, SOXX bulls looked like they would make it.

Price action pushed up to within 1%, of a new all-time-high.

Levels threatening the A.I. reversal scenario right up until 30-minutes before the close.

Then, the air came out.

The SOXX, closed up for the day, but just under the breakout, shown in the chart below.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Along with closing below resistance (blue line), price action did so on contracting volume.

Volume contraction implies, commitment to higher prices is weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sentiment, Volume, Price

That’s the reversal construct being used on this site.

First, the sentiment, then volume, then finally, the price.

Looking at the 5-Year Weekly chart of Nvidia, we can see it playing out in real-time.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The professionals have already left the chat; storm clouds are beginning to appear.

So far, ‘Week 89’ reversal remains intact.

The Danger Point®

From an engineering standpoint, the SOXX, has met the requirements for a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

First: Price action posted an outside-down reversal (last Thursday), on increased volume and closed below established resistance.

Second: That reversal was then tested (on Friday) and did so, on contracting volume.

Third: MACD, divergences on Weekly and Daily timeframes; although near-term weekly has yet to tick lower but still (diverging) below the highs of this past March.

    Intuitively, you can feel that something’s up. The A.I. pump-n-dump set-up may have run its course.

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    The SOXX … Day 55 (+2)

    July 11, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX 1 Comment

    Margin of Error

    If you’re upside down in a diving stall, shown here, there’s no margin for error or you’re dead; literally.

    The big problem for engineers, it doesn’t work that way in the markets.

    Two days after this post, we have a potential reversal in the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Of course, the engineers have long since left the room as there was an ‘error.’; not getting the (potential) reversal exactly right.

    If the AI mania is over, that update two days ago was off by two-days; the biggest bubble in world history … at least since the South Sea Bubble.

    So, let’s move on to the chart.

    Before we get started, also note, Nvidia has not made a new (all-time) high. This update identified that reversal correctly (so far).

    Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

    As of 11:05 a.m., EST, the SOXX has posted out-side-down.

    When Fibonacci counts get longer, there is more room to be off by a few days.

    If this is the reversal for the SOXX, a two-day margin is fully acceptable (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    The SOXX … Day ’55’

    July 9, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

    New Highs & Fibonacci

    Analysis of Nivida has already shown, the leader of the semis’ being influenced by Fibonacci, link here.

    Now, we have the SOXX about to open at or near new highs.

    What you likely won’t find anywhere else, insight that today, is Fibonacci Day ’55’, from the April 19th, lows (not advice, not a recommendation)

    New highs, Day 55, daily and weekly MACD bearish divergences, potential up-thrust; ‘You make the call.’

    Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

    Pre-market action: Currently (as of 8:42 a.m., EST), trading at 260.40-ish, right at the last top high, 260.65.

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    Nvidia … Still The Leader?

    July 5, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-10, SOXX

    Setting The (Reversal) Hook

    Nvidia just posted an Up-Thrust, reversal on the daily.

    The rest of the SOXX, whistles past the graveyard.

    If one looks only at the SOXX, everything seems to be ok; it’s recovering (sort-of).

    However, leader NVDA, may be at The Danger Point®, ready to head lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Nvidia NVDA, Daily

    We’ve just had an a-b-c correction from the June 24th lows.

    That correction posted a Wyckoff Up-Thrust with yesterday’s penetration of resistance (blue line) and today’s reversal.

    Note: Both upward moves (wave ‘a’, wave ‘c’) are of equal length but are divergent in thrust energy.

    We’re at the point where anything can happen.

    However, this is the place where risk for being wrong on a short position, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    Nivida Blow-Off Top?

    June 27, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX

    Supplementary Data, Independant Source

    Before we get to the ‘independent source’, a quick review of the June 21st, update (emphasis added):

    “With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”

    That was based on a wide gamut of data with none of it, ‘fundamentals’, except ‘the money’s gone’; the conclusion, NVDA, may be at a significant inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

    All of that, on this site, right here in River City. 🙂

    Independant Source

    Now, we have this from Ed Dowd, link here (time stamp: 5:45, 8:30, and 9:40) saying NVDA, had an ‘exhaustion top’, posting on two timeframes.

    Note: Wyckoff analysis, with its century-old technique, is coming to the same conclusions as the Wall Street ‘number crunchers’ with near-infinite computing power.

    Now, on to the chart.

    Nvidia NVDA, Daily

    The trading channel (blue lines) is potential only, not confirmed.

    What we do have, is once again, NVDA being influenced by Fibonacci time-correlation(s).

    Nvidia reversed on Fibonacci Week 89, from the October 14th, 2022, lows.

    Now, its adhering (so far), to daily Fibonacci.

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    Set-Up, For Gap-Down?

    June 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-09, SOXX, Uneducated Economist

    The Key Lies with Past & Present

    This update will show why there’s a probability for lower open, lower price action, and/or ‘island-gap-reversal’, for the SOXX, at the next session.

    With the understanding that ‘anything can happen’, let’s get into the SOXX price action, along with chief cook and bottle washer, Nvidia.

    Market Reversal?

    First off, does anyone expect a significant reversal?

    Following the breadcrumbs, here’s a link from the comments section posted during a livestream by Uneducated Economist; go to Time Stamp 23:45.

    Note: The second link is not from Simon (Uneducated Economist) himself but obtained from snide remarks made to him during his livestream.

    Using the timestamp, judge for yourself.

    My takeaway is:

    They don’t know. The amount of time wasted ‘crunching the numbers’ is mind numbing. Number crunching is easy and that’s why (nearly) everyone does it.

    Reading price action (effectively) is hard and that’s why you’re here. 🙂

    Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Candle

    The chart highlights the ‘island-gap’ potential.

    However, the real story is in the second chart, Nvidia.

    Remember that markets tend to alternate. Last time, is not this time.

    The last time Nvidia had a significant outside-down, it went into consolidation before moving higher.

    Nvidia NVDA, Daily Candle

    Looking at the chart, ‘this time’, is already different.

    From the 10:1 split, to outside-down, is Fibonacci 8-Days.

    Last time there was a wide outside-down (March 8th), the next day was narrow range, volume decreasing,

    This time, we have narrow range, volume increasing.

    The Higher Probability

    Taking it all into account, the higher probability is for continued downside. It’s a probability, not a guarantee.

    If we get upside at the next session, then it’s time to stand aside, re-sharpen the pencil and start looking for another reversal potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    A Tale Of Two Tops … Nvidia

    June 22, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-09, SOXX

    The Rule of ‘Alternation’

    It’s not hyperbolic to say, what’s happening to Nvidia right now, has never happened before.

    As we’ll see on the chart, the market itself proves that point.

    Work has already been done (here, here, here and here) on why Nvidia, may be at a significant inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Now the smoke has cleared from Friday’s session, we can look at what happened and what’s likely to happen.

    First, we’ll use a Fibonacci 8-Day, chart.

    Why? Because nobody else uses one. 🙂

    Besides being a Fibonacci number (just like the Weekly, at 5-Day), the 8-Day, seems to show the potential better (at this point) than other timeframes.

    Nvidia NVDA, 8-Day

    Let’s go all the way back to the beginning and why the current situation is unique.

    NVDA, started trading the week of January 22nd, 1999.

    During that span, there are no two Force Indicator occurrences (shown below) at this level of energy.

    In fact, there are no Force Index prints at this level, ever.

    The only print that comes close is also shown on the chart, occurring in late May, of ’23.

    An astute observer can instantly see the trouble or potential trouble.

    During the consolidation period from mid-March to late April, Force Index declined and eventually posted negative.

    That temporary wash-out provided fuel for more upside.

    Now, price is rising with force declining, at the same time.

    The inference, the rally is weak if not extremely weak.

    Let’s not forget, the ‘old-timers’ say it’s the biggest bubble they’ve ever seen.

    Couple that with NVDA, having already launched from bottom to top, 1999 – to- Latest Highs, a massive 469,000%.

    Time permitting, in the next update, we’ll look at the potential for an ‘Island Gap Reversal’, in the SOXX.

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    Nvidia Split Top … Part II

    June 21, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-09, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI 2 Comments

    Reversal On ‘Week 89’ ?

    The tape is saying ‘This could be it’.

    No one knows if this is ‘The top’, or just ‘A top’, until it’s all over (not advice, not a recommendation).

    This update for Nvidia, said we’re nearing Fibonacci Week 89 (from the October ’22, lows); look for evidence of a reversal.

    With three-hours left in the session, NVDA is on track (along with the SOXX) to posting a weekly reversal bar.

    Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

    The chart updated to show we’re at ‘Week 89’.

    The fact (minus 3-hours) we’re getting a reversal bar on ‘Week 89’, is potential validation of the Fibonacci count.

    The market itself is telling us where to look.

    With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Update: 2:07 p.m., EST

    Housekeeping Note:

    While under no obligation to discuss trades, nonetheless, for those following the biotech short (LABD-24-12), that trade has been exited (for now) with profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    The A.I. Money’s Down The Drain

    June 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute 2 Comments

    The Plug, Has Been Pulled

    Markets reverse in a typical way; first is ‘sentiment’, then ‘volume’, then ‘price’.

    According to this link, looks like we have sentiment aplenty; evaporating sentiment, that is.

    As stated by Mr. Fred Hickey, VC (Venture Capital) funding peaked last year and has dropped over 75%, since then; that’s the ‘sentiment’ part of the equation.

    A partial synopsis of his interview, in the link above:

    Time Stamp:

    9:15, The greatest bubble I’ve ever seen

    11:15, It’s all happened before

    11:40, Narrowing market

    11:55, Volume decline

    16:30, Honeymoon phase is over

    17:50, VC spending down 75%

    18:05, Everyone knows it’s a joke (except, Wall St.)

    And on it goes …

    Where’s The Top?

    From a Wyckoff perspective, using his analysis (here and here) as a basis of speculation, that’s the wrong question (not advice, not a recommendation).

    If we’re expecting some kind of massive reversal (which we are), then the objective is to look for the weakest sectors, not the strongest.

    Frequent users of this site already know that work’s been done. One of, if not the weakest sector(s), is Biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

    Is Today, The Day?

    With that said, as this post is being created (1:20 p.m., EST), the sector at the center of bubble attention, the SOXX, may have just completed a wedge ‘throw-over’.

    Semiconductors SOXX (ETF), Daily

    Any number of scenarios can be in play.

    At this point, the SOXX, may be in the process of validating the terminating wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

    As Fred Hickey said, it’s the biggest bubble he’s ever seen.

    By the time it becomes obvious, it’s way too late for (low-risk) positioning.

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

    It’s ‘Week 89’, for NVDA

    June 17, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX 1 Comment

    Then, There’s The Lawsuit

    Did we just hear ‘The Bell’, the top, for Nvidia?

    The last update said to watch for Fibonacci correlation as NVDA, nears Week 89.

    This week is that week; today, price action was gap-up higher, then reversal.

    It could all amount to nothing with NVDA continuing higher at the next session.

    Then, there’s the lawsuit; an old one, that’s been revived.

    Is it important or is it an ‘Archduke Ferdinand‘ event?

    Looking the daily chart, it’s clear, upward action is running out of steam.

    Nvidia NVDA, Daily

    Missing from the chart is a new daily low to help confirm that we’re at least in a congestion or setting up for a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

    As we saw in yesterday’s update with bullet item No. 7, it’s all about the numbers.

    Is Fibonacci ‘Week 89’, that number for NVDA?

    Stay Tuned

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    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279