Category Archives: SOXS-24-16

Biotech, Fibonacci, & The Tape

September 24, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-18, Livermore, Loeb, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Reversal of Significance

Wyckoff (tape reading) analysis identified the potential reversal in XBI.

In the past two days of trading, biotech XBI, is decisively lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, there’s more to this story.

As we’ll see below, Fibonacci is at work as well.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

From closing high on 2/27/24, to closing high on 9/19/24, was a Fibonacci 144 days (minus one).

Ladies and Gentlemen, it doesn’t get much better 🙂

The black lines show resistance penetration, up-thrust and reversal.

Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb

The trading methods of the three market masters above, can be summarized as:

Strategy, Tactics and Focus.

Livermore’s method of ‘what’s going to happen in a (potential) big way’, pointed to biotech.

Wyckoff’s analysis was used to identify (to the day), the potential for a significant reversal.

Loeb, who is less known, was the former Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, disparaged ‘diversification’ as the ‘averaging of errors’; meaning, if you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you ‘diversify.’

We can see all three at work in the selection to go short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fixing Errors

For those watching, you got to see up close and personal a trading error on shorting the SOXX; specifically, an -11.6%, hit, link here.

As of this post, four trading days later, that loss has been fully recovered and then some.

This is how should be done.

Clear the mind, look for (don’t force) another opportunity, get to back to business.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (fake-out) Breakout

September 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-18, SOXS-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

That Didn’t Take Long

It was just four days ago, the mainstream (in this report) was telling us, be on the lookout for a biotech breakout.

That was then … here we are now.

Price action in XBI, attempted to break higher at the Fed announcement.

That move appeared to fail by the end of Wednesday’s session … then came Thursday’s launch higher.

However, that move may have failed as well.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

At this point, we’ve posted a Wyckoff Up-Trust (reversal).

If this is a significant reversal, we’re still in the very early stages; at The Danger Point®

Positioning

As can be seen in the sidebar, a short position was opened (yesterday), LABD-24-18.

That position has been increased in size during this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

The SOXX (short) Exit.

Yesterday, SOXS-24-16, was exited with an -11.6%, hit; so, everyone can see the effects of breaking one’s discipline (not respecting the position stop).

Don’t force the trade … sounds so simple.

Getting back to work, the XBI false breakout was recognized early and the trade opened.

Today, so far, we have follow-through, confirming the reversal.

Bonds Continue Lower

Bonds, TLT, are currently posting an outside-down (reversal) on the weekly timeframe.

The last time there was an outside-down on the weekly, was over two-years ago; week of August 5th, 2022.

After that, bonds declined a whopping 32% before (slightly) recovering.

Now, they’re posting outside-down … again.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

What’s My (trend) Line?

September 18, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX

Nvidia Rachets Lower

Nvidia is trending down at a fast rate; anybody watching?

The mainstream ever bullish no matter what side, gives us this, link here.

Well, if we’re going to get an October surprise to the upside, it needs to happen soon (not advice, not a recommendation).

While we’re waiting for our ‘surprise’, let’s take a look at Nvidia’s repeating trendline characteristics.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

The trendlines in the chart are exactly parallel.

If we’re in a trading channel, price action is currently at the far-right side (supply side).

The left side (demand side) channel line is a long way away, and down.

Note: After this post, NVDA, has not closed (or printed) higher.

Positioning

Now that Fed shenanigans are out of the way, mainstream conversation is bound to launch on another round of nonsense.

Let’s just hope we won’t have to keep hearing about it (like the rate cut) for another year, and a half.

With that said, short position on SOXX (via SOXS) remains intact: SOXS-24-16 (not advice, not a recommendation).

It too may have a trading channel. The plan is to cover the technical details in another update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX at The Crossroads

September 14, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Decision Point

The SOXX, has reached a crossroads.

Shown in the chart below and similar to Nvidia (yesterday), the SOXX, is also at a potential inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Maybe, it’s time to cue up the blues music; it could be an appropriate moniker for the road ahead.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

“What do you see?”

Below, what the market is saying about itself.

If this chart is in-effect, that is, if the market’s ‘respecting’ the trendlines and trading channel, we’re at the spot where one could ask, ‘Where to from here?’

As always, anything can happen and we could somehow, magically, power on higher; probabilities suggest not (not advice, not a recommendation).

Contra Indicators

If indeed, this past week was the infection point for Nvidia and Semiconductors as a whole, the euphoric ‘technology‘ conference, might go down as the most significant contra-indicator of the A.I., bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, those in the know are cashing-out like there’s no tomorrow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Is Today, ‘The Day’, for Nvidia?

September 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX 2 Comments

Fibonacci Time Correlations

Scuttlebutt from the Goldman Sachs technology conference, with chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, had at least one journalist (do we still have those?) breathless, ecstatic (paraphrasing):

‘Never has there been so much euphoria’.

These links show how Fibonacci influenced potential, and then confirmation, of the all-time top and reversal.

As we’ll see below, price action continues with Fibonacci.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

This week, is ‘Week 13’, from the all-time high.

Fibonacci correlations continue on the daily.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

So far as of 1:53 p.m., EST, it’s an inside day for NVDA, with yesterday as the potential ‘short squeeze’, retrace high.

Yesterday was also a Fibonacci 5-days, from the most recent low (Day 55).

Retrace High

As is typically the case, the crowd is still euphoric (maybe even more so) long after the high.

This is typical ‘bubble’ behavior … the party goes on (even harder) as the ship goes down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s ‘Power-Play’ … Part II

September 12, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Wide Swaths of Instability

The last report on Nvidia, link here, nailed-it.

It said that demand had evaporated as seen by Force Index (thrust energy).

Nvidia went on to plunge over 15% before yesterday’s (what must have been a) short squeeze.

Coupled with that, was short trade (SOXS-24-15) in the Semiconductor Index (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, pre-market action (being short) for SOXX, did not look right; that position was exited just after the open.

Net profit for SOXS-24-15, was about +23.25%.

The whole scenario shows the importance of having the price action itself dictate the trading action.

The squeeze ‘excuse’ was the CEO of Nvidia giving a speech, then going off to sign women’s breasts … I’m not making this up.

All of which brings us to the chart.

We’re keeping the same Fibonacci 8-Day timeframe as the previous update.

Nvidia NVDA, 8-Day

There’s a lot going in with this chart.

First: Price action has become wide and unstable.

Second: The completed 8-Day, bar posted the deepest downside thrust energy ever.

Positioning

Once again, everyone has their own method and style.

With that, understanding where we could be in this market environment, i.e., the throws of reversal, another (tentative) short was opened in the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop on this trade (SOXS-24-16) is very tight … to be set near the (SOXS) lows of the session.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279