Category Archives: SOXS

Support The SOXX, or Not

February 28, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-09, SOXX, Wyckoff

Holding Below Support

Holding on for its life, just below support.

That’s the current condition (as of 12:23 p.m., EST) of the SOXX.

When we look at the chart, penetration of a three-month support area is clear.

By definition, when support is penetrated, it puts the market in Wyckoff Spring condition; there will (typically) be some kind of attempt to rally.

That’s where we are now.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Note the black dashed trendline.

Research done on bubbles past, link here postulated at the break, the multi-year down leg begins (not advice, not a recommendation).

After the SOXX broke the trendline, it spent an incredible 10-weeks testing that break before reversing lower.

Positioning

From a price action standpoint, there’s nothing (yet) that says to exit a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stated above, SOXX is technically in ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

With that in mind, the stop for SOXS-25-09, has or will be moved up to the session low; currently at SOXS 22.31 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Update: 1:39 p.m., EST: Price action expected to continue unabated (downward) after the first half of the session, now showing some buoyancy: Discretionary exit of SOXS-25-09, profit +14.2%

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … BOOM !

February 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, SOXS, SOXS-25-09, SOXX, Wyckoff

Well, That’s It

At the open, Nvidia came within 1-point of the target (61.8%), shown in the last update.

Then, it posted an outside-down bar within the first 25-minutes.

At this point (as of 11:28 a.m., EST), since yesterday’s low was penetrated, that puts NVDA, in a minor Wyckoff Spring condition, retracing some of the early session down move.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The chart has been compressed, showing events appear to be taking place on a massive scale.

If the trading channel is in-effect (i.e., correct), look how far down we have to go for the ‘demand’ side.

The press and pundits are either not ready for such a move or are deflecting from actual events, links here and here.

Looks like ‘good enough’ didn’t last long:

At the open, NVDA down, immediately.

Positioning

With all the coverage put on this equity and sector, ETF, the SOXX, trading actions are matter of fact.

The sidebar shows another short via SOXS, opened early in the session. Trade is SOXS-25-09 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

All Eyes on Nvidia

February 26, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Rally Into Earnings, (maybe) Good For Shorts

Yesterday’s post said to “expect a test of … support.”

That’s what we got.

Price action sliced through support levels for Nvidia and then rallied into the close.

This morning’s action continued that rally.

Short position SOXS-25-08, was exited early in the session (when SOXX, daily high exceeded yesterday’s high) with profit at +19.4% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Today, is Fibonacci ‘Day 34’, from the all-time highs.

Tomorrow, is Day 8, from the 2/18/25, pivot high.

Earnings are scheduled for release at 4:20 p.m., and conference call at 5:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Other (Bull) Side of Nvidia

February 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Cramer, Interest Rates, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Who’s Is Taking Your Trade?

As a trading professional, you must know (or have a good idea) who’s on the other side of your trade.

Whom are you competing against?

It’s just one of many questions to be asked (along with price action) when estimating the opportunity; whether long or short.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here’s some of what’s on the bullish side of Nvidia, link here.

So, according to the video, tech stocks (and Nvidia) went down because of the U.S. 10-yr Treasury?

Think about it. ‘Likes’ vs. ‘Dislikes’ on that video (as of this post) are over 13:1.

How about this:

Nvidia went down because it posted the largest ever price action down-thrust; then, went through a test of that action, completed the test, then reversed to the downside.

Wow, sounds so clear when put that way. 🙂

With that, let’s get back to reality.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Earnings are scheduled for after-hours tomorrow. Things could get interesting.

In the meantime, we have a demand line and possible channel.

As of this post (10:47 a.m., EST), NVDA has sliced through support at the 129 – 130, level with ease.

We should expect a test of that support. However, at this point, price action is quite weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. ‘Dominoes’, Start To Fall

February 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX, Wyckoff

Data-Center (lease) Cancellations

One of many to come?

The article at this link says the cancellation move was ‘unexpected’.

Clicking on ‘Artificial Intelligence’, (side-bar) and going back to August of ’23, with this post, then reading though subsequent posts, one can say the ‘cancellation’ was fully expected.

That August ’23, post has the link to Prechter’s analysis; we’re in the largest asset bubble in at least 300 years (not advice, not a recommendation).

All of that brings us to chief cook and bottle washer, Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’ll cut straight to the chase (as of 11:35 a.m., EST).

A Fibonacci projection is overlaid starting from the all-time-high (1/7/25), to the recent lows (2/3/25), back up to test (2/18/25), then reversal, again.

Note how last Friday’s price action printed and closed near the 23.6, Fibonacci projection.

Positioning

Everyone has their own preference and style.

As stated in the ‘About‘ section, this site works to emulate behaviors of the three masters listed.

That, in addition to the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to have been mentored by the late David Weis, results in what’s available on this site.

With that said, positioning in the SOXX (the A.I. proxy) is short, via SOXS, as SOXS-25-08, initial entry link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: SOXS-25-08, stop to be moved to the day’s session low; currently 18.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … The Path of Bubbles Past

February 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX

Modeling The Dot-Com

Nvidia looks like it’s rolling over.

There was an early morning ‘blip’ to the upside that was quickly retraced.

Known & Unknown

Some things are known.

We know Nvidia printed the largest-ever, downside thrust energy during the breakdown, January 27th.

Then came the process of retrace and test.

Also known (see chart) upside energy, i.e., Elder’s Force Index, at this point, has dissipated to almost nothing; suggesting the test is complete or near complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

At this juncture (12:18 p.m., EST) Nvidia is just 0.16-pts away from a lower weekly close and reversal bar.

The ‘Supply’ line is of course unknown until there’s more confirmation.

Bubbles Past

If we’re in a bubble, then work has already been done (link here) on what to expect when price action has tested its last to the upside, then turns lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Two … Days … Later

February 20, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

A New Daily Low

Nvidia fails to break above Tuesday’s, 2/18 high; instead, prints two (new) daily lows in a row.

In addition, if this action holds, it’s now posting a weekly reversal bar.

This analysis, link here, was early in its assessment.

With new daily lows and potential weekly reversal, probabilities favor continued downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action opened higher … therefore painting probabilities for more upside (as postulated in yesterday’s update); it didn’t happen.

So, we’re at the potential right side of a channel. The two magenta arrows show contact points

If this channel is in-effect (i.e., correct), then demand, the lower channel line, is a long way away.

Positioning

Naturally, with all of the above, a short was opened early in the session via SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: SOXS-25-08, stop at the SOXS low, for the day.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners, Where Risk is Least

February 19, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-01, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-07, SOXX 2 Comments

Downside Pressure

When price action’s at The Danger Point®, it doesn’t take much to stop-out a trade.

That’s where GDX, GDXJ, are now (not advice, not a recommendation).

The prior update said to watch what happens during a potential upside retrace.

With GDXJ, so far, that retrace is weak; as of this post (1:30 p.m., EST), now printing lower but still above support.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

For a short position (using JDST), we have a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

The bounce off support discussed in the prior update did not go far before reversing lower … where we are now.

One has to realize we’re back to the pundits screaming ‘hyperinflation’ as was the case over four years ago.

Gold (GLD) may indeed move on to higher prices.

However, for whatever reason, the mining sector continues its multi-year non-confirmation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions

Short entry on GDXJ via JDST as trade JDST-25-01, with stop at yesterday’s session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately: The short in the SOXX via SOXS, has been closed.

If price action continues to exhibit buoyancy, if NVDA posts a new daily high (this week), it’s possible, as incredible as it may sound, NVDA may go on to new all-time highs (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

3.3 Trillion … NVDA, Reversal

February 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-07, SOXX 1 Comment

Closing The Gap

Is now, when everybody starts running for the exit?

The last update (link here) left with the question as to whether or not, the ‘gap’ would be closed.

Well, today’s action closed that gap.

Now, we’re in a potential reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, 4-Hour

We’re using the 4-Hour chart as it gives better detail.

As of this post (3:34 p.m., EST) NVDA has formed a 4-Hour reversal bar that so far, is not being challenged.

The index, the SOXX is reaching an (upside) extreme as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Bull/Bear Struggle

February 12, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-06, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Pattern Repeats

Time for the ‘bag-holder’, shakedown?

One thing that can be said, big-cap Nvidia, is posting a repeating pattern:

Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

As long as NVDA, closes lower for the day, it’s at risk of downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The repeating set-up is labeled: No. 1. (spring) and No. 2. (up-thrust).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We still have the ‘break-away’ gap posted on January 27th (not labeled), creating the unknown; will this gap be filled?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279