Category Archives: $SPSIBI

‘Massive’ Short Squeeze, Really?

December 21, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Hey, Rocky! … Watch Me Pull Hyperbole Out of my Hat

The financial press says, on Friday, the shorts got slaughtered.

Is that true, or just more hyperbole?

To find out, we’ll take a look at the active short in biotech XBI, and see if there was a ‘slaughter’, or something more constructive.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The last post inferred, ‘there’s no end in sight’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is that still true?

A present, we have a channel (with center-line) whose sections are a Fibonacci multiple.

If the channel is still in effect and the next session does not decisively break to the upside, then we can see price action is testing and validation that right side.

The good part or scary part depending on one’s perspective, XBI is validating the ‘supply’ side of the channel (where selling occurs).

Way down lower, is the ‘demand’ side … way down.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Down … No End In Sight

December 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Parallel Channels

Moves that take years to develop, once started, can go on much longer than anyone would expect.

Depending on your viewpoint, biotech XBI, has been congesting sideways (in a range) from one-to-three years.

Either way, the current breakdown suggests the potential for a sustained down trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Remember, Wyckoff said the market itself, will tell us what levels and trendlines are significant.

If the current (right-side) channel is valid, the market itself shows us a similar channel in the past.

Two things to note.

First: Record Volume

As far as known (source, TC2000), November 15th’s volume of 30.3 million, was the largest ever recorded for the XBI:

That’s ‘thirty-point-three’ (thirty-three), you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

Second: Short Position

There were two attempts to short this market.

Trade: XBI-24-01

Actual, sell-short, closed with -0.40%, loss

Trade: LABD-24-21

Leveraged inverse fund LABD, currently open with +27.31%, profit (as of 9:02 a.m., EST).

Volatility & Leveraged Inverse

The objective is to trade short using LABD, for as long as practical (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the XBI begins to get volatile with wide swings and chop either up or down, slippage-decay on inverse funds becomes prohibitive.

LABD-24-21 may be exited at any time, without notice.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

All Jobs … ‘Fake’

December 17, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: ,

What’s The ‘Real’ Message

Like a scene out of Animal House, we have Tomfoolery going on with ‘official’ data, out of ‘reliable’ sources.

Turns out, at least in this case, the data’s fake.

Earlier in the year, we had 800,000 jobs. That was fake as well.

The message that most if not all have missed, is the market’s response to the fakery:

The markets have responded to revelations of fake data by doing … nothing. No wild swings, no major gaps lower or higher, nothing.

That’s the real message.

This site’s focused on what the market’s actually telling us, not what the (fake) financial press tries to tell us.

All of which, brings us to biotech.

Biotech Sector SPSIBI (SPBIO), Daily

We’re using ‘pure’ index (in this example) as the XBI, has minor differences, obscuring the Fibonacci sequence.

Price action’s consistent with establishing and confirming a right-side trend line (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, there has not been a new daily low … yet.

So, there’s still the possibility of breaking the downtrend (line) and morphing into something different.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Tale of Two Markets

December 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , , , ,

SOXX Powering Higher, XBI Pivoting Lower

To borrow from the Dickens classic:

It was the bullish of times, it was the bearish of times.

Bulls have regained control of the semiconductors (SOXX) for now and negated the ‘false breakout’ analysis link here.

Meanwhile, bears have moved into biotech XBI; currently testing underside resistance and axis line.

Since the active trade (LABD-24-21) is in biotech, we’ll review that market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The weekly shows us the ‘Axis Line’ has been part of XBI price action for at least three years.

Moving on to the daily, more detail.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There was (decisive) downside penetration, November 15th. Then, an attempted recovery that so far, has failed.

The notation ‘Short?’, was the date of this post.

As the semiconductors battle over who’s in control, for biotech, the bears seem to have established a foothold (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Seven-Year ‘Wedge’

December 15, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, Bonds, DHI, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Massive Top Formation

D.R. Horton, (DHI) is the largest cap in the Residential Construction Sector (www.tc2000.com).

During the last blow-up (2005 – 2008), DHI, declined top-to-bottom over -91%.

Will it be different this time?

One thing that’s likely, the next implosion could be hit with widespread market and broker outages (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last (notable) time was here.

As far as known, feel free to comment to the contrary, this site’s the only one that incorporates outage potential (and reality) into its trading plan.

Case in point is this link.

The firm’s trade records show, on that Monday, the account was short: LABD-24-16.

The broker outage and panic helped the position. The trade was closed on August 8th, with a profit of 11.15%.

Enough said, let’s move on.

D.R. Horton DHI, Monthly

There it is, seven-years in the making.

We’re at the lower wedge boundary now.

Recently, bonds (TLT) had a minor move higher (rates lower), lasting two-weeks.

However, last week, TLT reversed down and eclipsed the previous two-weeks of gains.

Rates are now moving higher … again.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakdown

December 11, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

Is The Channel Confirmed?

While confusion in the rest of the market rages on, Trump-bump, no-bump, consumer optimism never higher, back at the ranch, biotech XBI, is posting some ominous signs (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a backdrop of ‘the jig is up’ for some sectors, it’s possible, biotech is part of that (potential) long term reversal as well.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The work has already been done, showing the potential of a significant reversal, link here.

As stated in previous posts, the corporate account is positioned short; tracked via LABD-24-21, in the side bar above (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Ends Week, Down

December 6, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

That’s Not All

Is a long-term, downside reversal in this sector, about to bubble to the surface?

With yesterday’s update, it’s easy to get lost in the hourly and daily maneuvers; see a likely (short-term) potential, while it just distracts from the bigger picture.

That ‘big picture’, is below.

Once again, we have a (potential) repeating set-up: Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

With this week’s volatile action but lower overall close (from last week), the ‘up-thrust test may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s Reversal … Reversed

December 5, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Forming An Island?

Less than one trading day later, the biotech XBI, reversal bar discussed yesterday has itself, been reversed.

Not only that, when looking at the chart, it’s an eerie feeling there could be an island gap at hand (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the market will let us know.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’re about 30-minutes before the close; price action is lower for the day.

There may also be a downtrend line in the works.

We’ll discuss that in another update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Slams Into A Test

December 4, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: 2 Comments

Is The (short) ‘Risk’ Least?

Price action for biotech XBI, is compressed.

From a bullish side, today (as of 12:10 p.m., EST) is a daily reversal bar.

From a bearish side, we’re at the extreme for an upside test.

Market’s bearish tone: Several weeks ago on November 15th, the sector had its largest down-volume day, ever.

In Wyckoff terms, this has potentially negated the bullish case (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s see what price action in XBI, is saying about itself.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

As of this post, XBI is near the top of its weekly range, narrowing risk on a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll leave it there and let the speculator make his/her decision whether or not action is warranted.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Curtains For Biotech?

November 27, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Holiday Turns, LABD, SPBIO, The Daily Sceptic, The List, The Speck, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , 1 Comment

Today, Is ‘Day 13’

Strange things happen in the markets just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

This time is no different.

With all that’s gone on in the past few weeks, one gets a sense ‘the jig is up’.

One example of the curtain being pulled back on a well-established grift, is this unrelated, but related post, link here.

So, it could be with biotech.

The past two weeks look like a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

It’s been a Fibonacci 13-Days since the reversal on 11/11.

The sector has accelerated to the downside on record volume and now, is testing that break.

The ‘Axis Line’, is also the location of the 61.8%, retrace for the current down-move and test.

Although there’s been no new daily low to ‘confirm’ the test is complete, (upside) risk may be at a low.

Positioning

For reasons to be covered in a later update, this sector’s being shorted directly as opposed to using leveraged inverse LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled: XBI-24-01

Stop level for the short is (or will be) the session high, currently at XBI 99.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279