Category Archives: Up-Thrust

SOXX … Stop, Drop, And Roll

April 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Federal Reserve, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Then, There’s Carvana

The SOXX, hit resistance, stopped, dropped, and could be rolling over for more downside … or not.

Maybe there’s something else developing.

Something like a set-up to penetrate resistance, creating a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The magenta dashed line is the 38.2%, retrace for the entire downside move; from the top on July 11th, 2024, to the lows on April 7th.

Note the potential Fibonacci time correlation, just before the Fed announcement on May 7th.

As with Carvana (CVNA), we’re nearing a potential inflection.

Also note, Carvana has dropped from the current resistance area (around 240) making that level the more probable area for an up-thrust, rather than yesterday’s 310-location (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 1

April 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Goldman, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Big Picture

If things don’t change soon, the wheels have come off the bond market (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, it’s common knowledge the (U.S. Treasury) bull market of forty-years, ended in March of 2020.

It’s been nothing but rates ratcheting higher, ever since.

Recession Reversal … Where?

However, a strange thing happened on the way to the anticipated bond reversal … typically, a long-time indicator of an impending recession.

Just weeks ago, during the market meltdown with the largest trading volume ever recorded, bonds did not respond as expected.

The Blip

During that wipe-out, bonds (TLT) blipped higher into a false breakout, a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, and have since collapsed on the largest weekly downside (thrust) energy and volume ever seen.

Next update, the charts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Hanging By A Thread

July 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

SOXX Bulls, Lose Their Grip

For most of Friday’s session, SOXX bulls looked like they would make it.

Price action pushed up to within 1%, of a new all-time-high.

Levels threatening the A.I. reversal scenario right up until 30-minutes before the close.

Then, the air came out.

The SOXX, closed up for the day, but just under the breakout, shown in the chart below.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Along with closing below resistance (blue line), price action did so on contracting volume.

Volume contraction implies, commitment to higher prices is weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sentiment, Volume, Price

That’s the reversal construct being used on this site.

First, the sentiment, then volume, then finally, the price.

Looking at the 5-Year Weekly chart of Nvidia, we can see it playing out in real-time.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The professionals have already left the chat; storm clouds are beginning to appear.

So far, ‘Week 89’ reversal remains intact.

The Danger Point®

From an engineering standpoint, the SOXX, has met the requirements for a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

First: Price action posted an outside-down reversal (last Thursday), on increased volume and closed below established resistance.

Second: That reversal was then tested (on Friday) and did so, on contracting volume.

Third: MACD, divergences on Weekly and Daily timeframes; although near-term weekly has yet to tick lower but still (diverging) below the highs of this past March.

    Intuitively, you can feel that something’s up. The A.I. pump-n-dump set-up may have run its course.

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279