Category Archives: Up-Thrust

Nvidia … What’s Left?

July 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, China, David Weis, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

All The Good News

Yesterday’s action falls under the ‘should have known‘, category.

Should have known, based on the price action itself, that something was up.

That ‘something‘, could be all the good news left, for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the pre-market, hourly chart of the SOXX, the condition is obvious.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Hourly (pre-market)

The magenta oval and arrow, indicate current pre-market trading (as of 8:27 a.m., EST).

The SOXX, is trading at 247.58; just above the July 10th high, of 247.52.

At the open, we can expect the usual short-covering volatility for the first three-to-five minutes.

After that, we’ll have some idea if ‘this is it’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, at The Edge

July 10, 2025 By in NVDA, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-03, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-04, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Thrust Apex?

From the April 7th lows, to now, each successive move higher in the SOXX, has traveled less net distance.

In Wyckoff terms, this type of market behavior occurs near the end of a move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget the up-thrust condition, still in effect, discussed here.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

In a related analysis, the last post on Nvidia had it at Fibonacci Week 144 (-1).

Now, a week later, Nvidia is in Fibonacci Week 144 (from October 2022, lows), posting all-time highs.

Positioning

Short the SOXX, as trade SOXX-25-03, with stop just above the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: This could be a very short-lived trade as SOXX, is trading higher in the pre-market (as of 8:35 a.m., EST).

Separately, the stop on short trade WMT-25-04, has been moved down to just above its session high at 97.31 (not advice, not a recommendation).

If WMT, posts a new daily high, it’s likely to test the trend break; we’ll stand on the sidelines if/when, that happens.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wal-Mart … The Sleeper?

July 9, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, Positions, QQQ, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-04 1 Comment

Follow, the Set-Up

Is it possible that Wal-Mart, one of the laggards of the market, for years if not decades, could all-of-a-sudden, become exciting?

Exciting that is, to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the tagline above says, ‘Follow, the Set-Up’.

Well, here it is.

Wal-Mart WMT, Daily Close

It’s important to note: Unlike the rest of the indices, the S&P, the Qs, the Dow, WMT, is well below its all-time highs.

Yesterday, was a potential trend break. Today, may be continuation, or test of that break.

Positioning

Short as trade WMT-25-04, with stop at yesterday’s high, WMT 99.17 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wal-Mart Breakdown

July 8, 2025 By in Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-04

Up-Thrust and Trend Break

Wal-Mart’s not looking too good.

The premise for WMT, price action remains intact; we’re (still) in a test of the up-thrust, discussed here.

That ‘test’ may have been resolved with today’s action.

Positions

Currently short WMT, as WMT-25-04, with stop at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Separately, SOXX short, despite all the (analysis) work, was stopped out with a slight profit: SOXX-25-01, closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Livermore’s Laws … Positioning

July 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Establish Full Position(s) … Early

As the ‘About‘ page says, we’re emulating trading and analysis techniques, used by Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb.

Livermore’s listed first, as he figured out through many gains and losses, he’s primarily, a strategist:

‘What’s likely to happen, in a big way?’

Wyckoff is next as the tactician, with Loeb as the focus; meaning, concentrate positions, do not ‘diversify’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incremental Entries

The potential for reversal in the semiconductor index, started with this post.

From that post, the sidebar shows an initial short, labeled as: SOXX-25-01.

Moving on to this post, Nvidia was used as a proxy for the SOXX; once again, we see SOXX-25-01, in the sidebar.

The short is active, size increased by 50%, last Thursday.

Today, price action posts a new daily low, dips below resistance in 240 – 242, area, increasing probability it’s an up-thrust (reversal).

SOXX-25-01, size increased again by 30%, and we’re done.

The amount of capital planned for the position has been fully allocated.

Set The Stop, & ‘Walk’

From this point, anything can happen.

With that said, the obvious stop location for the current position, is just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a combined entry of 242.26, getting stopped out just above 242.13, would be at break-even.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s New (closing) High

July 5, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-06, Positions, Up-Thrust

Grinding its way, to a Set-Up

Will Carvana make it to all-time-highs, or is this, it?

During the past (shortened) week, CVNA, could not print higher, but it did close (barely) higher than June 4th, high of 345.64.

Therefore, on a close basis, we have a potential up-thrust condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last short in Carvana, CVNA-25-06, was stopped out with a 2.5%, loss.

Admittedly, it was an ‘iffy’ trade, but even so, the risk was well defined (the June 26th high).

Now, we have another potential set-up, with possibly even better time sequencing and price action position.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

From closing high, to closing high, was Fibonacci 21 Days. From low close, to high close, was Fibonacci 13 Days.

There’s even another correlation (not shown), from low close (6/16), to test low (6/26), a Fibonacci 8-Days.

Futures Markets, Back Off

Friday’s futures action may be giving us a hint of what’s to come at the open, Sunday night (tomorrow).

Carvana, CVNA, is not classified as an EXTO vehicle, so, we’ll have to wait for the Monday session to see what happens.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, (false) Breakout?

July 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Edge-of-the-Lake

At the end of the session, yesterday, a short was opened in the SOXX, as trade, SOXX-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see below, price action finally penetrated long-standing resistance around 240 – 243, and then (so far), has stopped dead.

In the overnight session, SOXX churned higher to post 243.63, and is hovering around that level, in the pre-market.

There’s no doubt we’re at ‘the edge of the lake’, as David Weis, used to say.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, big cap Nvidia, is in Spring-to-Up-Thrust condition (chart not shown), with it posting new all-time-highs.

If NVDA confirms an up-thrust and heads lower, it’s likely to take the rest of the (SOXX) market down as well.

Market Positions

Positioned short the SOXX, with a stop yet to be determined; somewhere around the overnight high of 243.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, stop on GDX short, DUST-25-05 is being moved up to the vicinity of yesterday’s low, 23.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wal-Mart’s ‘Strategic Reversal’

June 27, 2025 By in Up-Thrust, WMT, Wyckoff 1 Comment

‘Customers’, are (likely) ‘Disappearing’

‘Ten Million, In’ … ‘Ten Million, Out’

The ‘in’ part, happened quickly; the ‘out’ part, also happening, but may take (a lot) longer.

Either way, one gets the sense the dynamic for WMT, has changed.

Public sentiment has shifted with examples like this, and this.

Looking at price action, it’s like a slow-motion train-wreck.

Wal-Mart WMT, Weekly

At this point (this week), the Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ is being tested; so far, price action is retreating from resistance.

From a risk standpoint, the parameters are well defined.

For a short position, the stop would be this week’s high at WMT, 99.11 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont’s Breakout Fails

June 25, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-04, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, NEM, Positions, Up-Thrust

Long Awaited

Yesterday, Newmont was hanging on, trying to post higher after its failed breakout.

Today, could be the day where it continues down (not advice, not a recommendation).

With about thirty minutes before the open, NEM is trading slightly lower.

Newmont Mining, NEM, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

Note how the ‘wide high-volume bar’, has been tested. It took eight months to do it, but it happened.

Gold (GLD) is still near all-time highs, yet Newmont, is far below its all-time high; about -33%, (from April 2022).

Currently short this sector via DUST, as DUST-25-04, with stop at or near yesterday’s DUST low of 24.69 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CrowdStrike … Then & Now

June 19, 2025 By in CRWD, CRWD-25-04, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

‘Somebody, Always Knows …’

CrowdStrike may have reached a top, or maybe ‘the’ top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on price action, this update could be part of a series.

With the chart below, we’re going to start first with ‘then’, and also first, with some background on the cyber ‘glitch’.

Background

The software crash of July 19th, 2024, was the result of an update, not external cyber-attack, link here.

Damage as result of lost revenue (for subscribers), was in the $Billions … with a ‘B’. 🙂

The effects of that loss are still reverberating, evidenced by CrowdStrike’s earnings, links here, here, and last year, here.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily

As noted (on the chart), there was clear evidence something was wrong, well before the ‘glitch’.

The most recent earnings release saw a sharp drop, -8.9%, at the lows; volume doubled from the prior session.

Then, nine trading days later, CRWD, inches to a new all-time high.

Yesterday’s action was down with a potential ‘change of character’.

Currently short: CRWD-25-04, with a stop near the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279