Category Archives: Up-Thrust

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready

September 23, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, CDE, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Repeating Pattern

During the last multi-year, market melt-down from ’07 – ’09, Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) crashed over -90%, in a relatively ‘well-behaved’ collapse.

‘Well-behaved’; straight down, sideways, then straight down again.

Looking at the current price action on a closing basis, we see the ominous (potential) pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Cadence Design Systems, CDNS, Daily Close

Other Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-ups are noted.

However, this time around, we may be in up-thrust (reversal) condition.

The next earnings release is late October; there’s time to assess action (if/when short) before any Kabuki theater (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Walmart, Tests Reversal

September 22, 2025 By in David Weis, Up-Thrust, WMT, Wyckoff

Watch The Volume

The last update on Walmart (WMT) had this:

Will we get an upside test, even if only briefly?

Watching price action early this session, it looks like that test is happening now (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a Wyckoff (and David Weis) perspective, what we’re looking for if WMT, keeps rising or holds steady, is volume to contract on the day.

Contracting volume indicates a test of the up-thrust (reversal) and helps to add probability to the downside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Early Session: Biotech

September 19, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-12, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XBI

Repeating Pattern

The graphic at left, is a segment of biotech tracking ETF, XBI.

Note how it exhibits a repeating pattern of spring-to-up-thrust (S & U).

Today is also Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from the ‘S’ labeled low.

As seen with gold GLD, slightly higher, not correcting immediately, anything can happen.

However, with XBI, we’re in a multi-year downtrend that may be finishing its countertrend move, ready to up-thrust and reverse lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Debt … $1-Trillion

September 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-11, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XLF, ZeroHedge

When it Implodes

Is the bell ringing?

Is this it?

In the pre-market, SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQs, all-time highs.

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, it’s getting a bit ‘uncomfortable’.

One Trillion in margin debt as reported here and here.

The Ones To Watch

While all eyes are focused on the leaders (above), at least three markets are not participating:

Real Estate, IYR, Russell IWM, biotech, IBB, and XBI.

From a Wyckoff perspective, for short candidates, these are the ones to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, XBI

As stated in the prior update, XBI may have formed a triple top within and ‘up-thrust’, link here.

The obvious areas to watch for today’s session, are yesterday’s high and low.

A new high puts the up-thrust into question; new low, adds (a small) confirmation to reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Breakout or Breakdown … Biotech

September 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, MyStrategicForecast, Positions, QQQ, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, XBI 2 Comments

‘Winds of Change‘

The last update said, XBI presented the ‘best (index) short opportunity’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is that still true?

With the SPY and Qs, still grinding higher, XBI is absent, having topped four days ago.

It’s not necessarily the top per se, but the XBI location in the overall market.

While the major indices are just now reaching all-time highs, biotech XBI, posted all-time highs years ago.

Four and a half years, to be more precise.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today’s action can be considered as a ‘test’ of the attempted (possibly failed) breakout.

There’s ‘evidence of a struggle’ and XBI is not (at this time) moving higher.

Adding to that, we have what’s been referred to as ‘Kabuki Theater‘ coming up at 2:00 p.m., EST, tomorrow).

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Walmart Watch

September 14, 2025 By in MyStrategicForecast, Shadow Trader, Up-Thrust, WMT 2 Comments

Inflection Point?

Walmart doesn’t have far to go in either direction, to define the next move.

Before getting started, let’s go back to comments made about WMT from September 4th, on this post:

“WMT, just might continue to grind higher to post above the 103-area to take out stops … maybe.“

Of course, it was a ‘maybe’; we’re dealing with probabilities.

With that said, the ‘maybe’ happened.

Walmart WMT, Daily

At the far left of the chart is WMT’s all-time high.

Next, we have a lower high on August 8th.; now, we’re in ‘up-thrust’ position.

Data coming in, here and here, indicates the market(s) may be at an inflection point, minor, or potentially, major.

The second link is especially well-done; it methodically steps through the mechanics of a potential high.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Hovers at Highs

September 11, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Up-Thrust

Mid-Air

This could be all there is for the SOXX.

If price action can’t continue higher from here, we could have a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Old Timer’s ‘Truth’

September 9, 2025 By in 1929, Bert Dohman, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, HOOD, HOOD-25-07, Kitco, Kitco News, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, ShadowStats, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Real Story

If there’s any one interview that details what’s really going on, it’s this, link here.

The 48-mintue Kitco session with Bert Dohmen, is much needed straight talk.

It’s all there:

Official data is fake. Markets will (likely) ‘trap’ bulls with massive gap-down. It’s 1929 (again). Crypto is an illusion. Silver/Gold will correct (temporarily) along with the markets. We’re surrounded by bought off media. The population (masses) don’t think or can’t think.

Adding to that are ideas and sources discussed for years on this site, like ShadowStats having ‘real’ data on unemployment and inflation.

The list goes on.

With all that said, let’s look at one of the sectors (retail brokers), that could be hit hard during a surprise downturn.

Robinhood HOOD, Daily

It’s important to note, price action late Friday, began to pull away from the lows … rising into the close.

Just after that close, the announcement, HOOD made it to the S&P.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something. That ‘something’ shows up on the tape’

Well, there it is.

Was yesterday (the start of) a blow-off?

Froce Index (thrust) was the largest since the IPO, trading on August 4th, of 2021.

Price action is currently (as of 11:58 a.m., EST) retreating off the highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds & Brokers … Reversal

September 8, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-07, IBKR, IBKR-25-01, Interest Rates, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SCHW, SCHW-25-01, SPY, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Well, Except for HOOD

Long bonds TLT, have launched higher four consecutive sessions; yields lower.

Two major brokers, Schwab and Interactive, appear to have tested (or, are testing) their Friday breakdown.

Robinhood bucked the trend, closing at all-time highs.

That puts HOOD, in potential Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ (reversal) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: The S&P did not post new highs. Last Friday’s all-time high, remains intact.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Cisco Systems … Short Side

September 5, 2025 By in CSCO, CSCO-25-01, Positions, SOXS, SOXS-25-10, SOXX, Up-Thrust

Big Reversal?

It was a very busy Friday, hence the reason for the late update.

One short position closed (SOXS-25-10) and five more opened.

Cisco Systems was one of those five (not advice, not a recommendation).

Earnings for CSCO, were released in mid-august; market reaction was a swift move lower.

From the earnings, everything seems to be good.

However, at this juncture, that’s not what the market is saying (at least for now).

Cisco Systems CSCO, Daily

Note:

As a general rule (for my firm), on any initial position, the implied stop for that position is that day’s session high or low depending on long or short.

In the case above, that means a ‘buy-to-cover’ stop at the day’s high of CSCO 68.10 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other (short) positions to be reviewed over the weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279